Maxbialystock

Terrible swing by Renfroe on a changeup way outside. This is why Houck needs a changeup.

Changeup right down the middle, and Kike barely fouled it off.

The difference between Montgomery today and Houck today is that Montgomery has pretty good stuff, especially the wicked curve and nasty changeup. Everything Houck has throw has been hittable.

I am pretty sure all Montgomery needs against our lineup is that big curve, that pretty good cut fastball (91 mph), and the changeup. Dalbec loyalists need to take a bow.

Well, he certainly could use a good curve ball and/or a good changeup, but today his command is also a problem.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think this game and Houck are an example of why we should be glad for 7 innings games on double-header days.

Fastball and slider both hittable on the first time through the Yankees lineup. LeMahieu the Merciful.

Another lucky break, a single hit hard to JDM, who actually has a good arm, so Voit was right to stay at 3d. Bases now loaded, and the Yankees look like piranha gobbling up Houck's offerings.

2 line drive outs in this inning. Scary with 2 men on. His slider got hammered.

Not a good time to develop command issues.

It took an excellent throw across the diamond to a moving target, who also made a good play running, catching the throw, and tagging out Renfroe. Odds were in Renfroe's favor, and a guy on 3b with Montgomery throwing all those big curves in the dirt is worth gambling for. Earlier in the season Vazquez's gambles kind of paid off, but over time they just got dumber and dumber.

What's the name of the Clint Eastwood movie--Trouble With the Curve? Only that kid was an 18 year old rookie, and JDM is a seasoned veteran who absolutely should know better.

Ahem. We just played the Orioles 3 at Fenway. All semi-forfeits.

The absolute best value in players are those who are really talented and acquired when the team has several years of control, usually thru the farm system, but sometimes by trade. If you go back to that crucial scene in the movie Moneyball, the one in which all those old scouts are shot down by Billy Beane and his new assistant, you are looking at a quick fix solution and not one teams should follow routinely. Yes, absolutely, get value and even use sabermetrics to help you in making trades, but young talent and especially evaluating young talent and bringing it along are crucial to any MLB team. Billy Beane, at least in the movie, says that all scouts are worthless, and he is wrong. Relatedly, it's a truism in MLB that the big money comes from long-term contracts in which the biggest part of the salary comes at age 30 and after, which is when players wear down, lose their timing, get injured, whatever. Consider the following data on the 2021 Sox players--by name, age, salary, and WAR-- Sale, 32, $30M, WAR .1 Bogaerts, 28, $20M, WAR 3.9 JDM, 33, $19M, WAR 3.1 Eovaldi, 31, $17M, WAR 3.0 Price, 35, $16M, WAR 0.0 Pedroia, 37, $12M, WAR 0.0 Richards, 33, $8.5M, WAR .3 E. Rodriguez, 28, $8.3M, WAR .9 Ottavino, 35, $7.1M, WAR .8 Vazquez, 30, $6.2M, WAR .7 Devers, 24, $4.8M, WAR 4.0 Rike Hernandez, 29, $6M, WAR 3.8 Barnes, 31, $4.5M, WAR 1.2 Perez, 30, $4.5M, WAR .7 Renfroe, 29, $3.1M, WAR 1.8 Plawecki, 30, $1.6, WAR .1 Sawamura, 33, $1.2M, WAR .8 Verdugo, 25, $650K, WAR 1.9 Pivetta, 28, $610K, WAR 2.4 Dalbec, 26, $575K, WAR -.6 Whitlock, 25, $570K, WAR 2.3 Duran, 24, $570K, WAR -.4 If you further divide a player's salary by his WAR, you can see that the best Sox player values this year are under 30 years old--except for Sawamura. Price is I think a great example of the folly of giving a long term contract circa age 30. And maybe Sale is too even though I like him a lot. JDM has actually produced and I think was the key bat added after 2017 who made a big difference in 2018. And Eovaldi and Barnes, both 31, are also pretty good value this year. I think the Bogaerts contract was/is a good value, but shudder at what Devers will want when he becomes a free agent. Think Mookie Betts. About Pedroia's $12M. It looks bad, but 2007 (his rookie year) thru 2021 (including 4 years of basically not playing), 15 years, his total WAR was 52 and his total salary was $138M, so the Sox were basically paying him $2.65M/WAR, which is actually not bad. Jacoby Ellsbury also came up in 2007 and his final year was 2020. His cumulative WAR was 31 and total salary was $168M.

In the games I have watched him catch, I thought Wong looked pretty darn good. I can't comment on his arm (throwing baserunners out) or framing pitches or how he calls a game, but I like how he handles himself defensively. His game log says caught 3 games (Yankees, Royals, and Angels), in which the Sox won 2 of 3 and Eovaldi was the starter in all 3 games and pitched well in all 3 games.

To a degree. However, his main point is the same as mvp 78's: the Sox defense is hurting the Sox pitching and not just a little.

Thanks. Only Arroyo and Hernandez mean much, and right now I think Hernandez is more important than Arroyo, who can't stay off the IL. I know you like Arroyo at 2b, where he is pretty decent and a good bat--and lets Kike can stay in CF. I like Kike in CF too, but the Sox have a surplus of good bats besides his who can't play in the infield: Verdugo, Renfroe, JDM, and Schwarber. Plus Duran (whose WAR, however, is -.4).

Devers was actually at +.3 DWAR a few weeks ago, so it has dropped a little. He has range, pretty good hands, and a strong arm that sometimes betrays him. He and Bogaerts both have a habit of of half-throwing a couple of times before finally delivering. Bottom line: I don't think the Sox are going to move him to 1b next year or the year after.

Agree. I've tended to blame the Sox pitching, but agree the defense is suspect, which your numbers confirm. Right now the Sox have three players with good DWAR's: Hernandez (1.4), Vazquez (.9), and Arroyo (.6). Wong is .1, and so is Arauz. The not so good DWAR's belong to: Dalbec (-1.1), JDM (-.6), Plawecki (-.4), Bogie (-.4), and Duran (-.2) Devers, Verdugo, and Renfroe (with his 14 outfield assists) all have DWAR's of 0.0 and have taken the hippocratic oath: first do no harm.

I like Rios/Valdez and am hopeful Richards and Perez can be useful in relief. Indeed, against the Orioles the Sox bullpen pitched 10 innings, giving up 1 run with notable contributions from Richards (3 innings/0 runs), Sawamura (2/0), Robles (1/0), Davis (1/0), Whitlock (1.2/0) and Perez (1/0). Ottavino, on the other hand was .1/1, and Barnes was 1/0 while giving up a double and a single. We'll know a lot more after Tues/Wed and 3 at Yankee Stadium.

One more time. The Sox are just 3 games behind the Rays for the AL East and are 2.5 games ahead of the Yankees for a wild card slot and 4.5 games ahead of the Jays. So "A Realistic View At 2021" says the Sox are very much in the hunt with 42 games to go. Unfortunately, the Sox pitching (4.28)--defined for my purposes as team ERA--lags well behind the pitching of the Astros (3.62), Athletics (3.64), White Sox (3.65), Yankees (3.71), Rays (3.78), and Jays (3.88). It cannot be a coincidence that all six of those teams are also in the hunt for the playoffs and that the Astros, White Sox, and Rays all lead their divisions. On the other hand, I would be dishonest not to say that the Sox hitting--defined as runs scored--is 3d best in the AL and that Astros (627), Rays (608), Jays (604) and the White Sox (585) are in the top five AL teams in hitting (runs scored). My concern is that good pitching usually beats good hitting. And my other concern is that good pitching means a good rotation and a good bullpen. With Sale back and Eovaldi, Pivetta, and ERod looking pretty good (and not just against the Orioles), the Sox rotation might be as good as it's been all season. However, I say again, the Sox stalwart and crucial bullpen has depended heavily on Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Sawamura, Taylor, Hernandez. But right now Taylor is on the COVID list and Hernandez on the IL. Barnes and Ottavino, our two closers, currently seem to be on the "let's give them some rest, like a couple of weeks or more" list. If you doubt me on that, look at the game thread for yesterday in which there was an uproar because poor, vastly overworked, and exhausted Barnes was on the mound with just five days rest and having to go against the Orioles murderous lineup!! Nevertheless, Sawamura and Whitlock right now seem to be the two most reliable arms in the bullpen. And that ain't enough for a team whose rotation through 120 games has averaged 4.1 innings per start. I read somewhere that "hope is not a method," but right now I'm hoping that Richards and Perez will be better in the bullpen than as starters, that Valdez can pick up some of the slack, and that the vastly overworked Ottavino and Barnes can bounce back after another week or two of rest (and when Taylor gets over COVID and Hernandez his injury). The beauty of MLB and this season is that tomorrow and Wednesday we get a good test of my incessant whining because the Sox play 3 vs. the oncoming Yankees. If the Sox win 2 out of 3, I'm an idiot. If the Yankees sweep, my worries will continue.

I do appreciate moonslav's numbers on where the Sox are now and the teams/series for the remaining 42 games. My very simple take is that pitching is going to make the difference for better or for worse. Right now the new rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta, Sale, ERod, and Houck looks pretty good to me, but the bullpen is frightening. Ottavino and Barnes to me are suspect, and those two have pitched in the 8th and 9th innings in close games, especially when the Sox had a lead. Taylor has been pretty good too, and he is on the COVID IL. Same goes for Hernandez--right oblique strain, out until September. So who's left left who's been effective? Sawamura and Whitlock. I am exaggerating (above para) of course, but I am worried because the bullpen has been a vital strength this season.

Barnes was pitching on 5 days rest today. My guess, only that, is that both he and the pitching coach wanted him to pitch to keep from getting rusty and to see how he was doing before the Yankees series. He could well be tired, but he has pitched 47 innings in the 120 games the Sox have played this season, so theoretically he is headed toward 63 innings. He pitched 66 in 2016, 69 in 2017, 61 in 2018, and 64 in 2019. Plus last year was easy on his arm--just 23 innings. Whitlock has thrown 53 innings this season. My no doubt uninformed opinion is that he doesn't have have that great knuckle curve he had before he had to quit putting stuff on the ball and is now having to throw too many fastballs. Lately he has even thrown some changeups, which he barely threw for most on this season. Barnes had 25 k's in April, 16 in May, 18 in June, and just 7 in July (a shorter month because of the ASG break, which got him a 10 day break between relief appearances.

Love the three wins and especially how they stopped the Sox bleeding and gave them a new lease on life. But the Orioles right now are just awful, coming up are the Yankees, and they are now a big deal.

Hitting and pitching both looked good in a necessary Orioles sweep. And the rotation wasn't that bad vs. the Rays or even way back vs. the Yankees, July 22-25. Looks like Eovaldi, Houck, and Pivetta vs. the Yankees. I remain concerned about the bullpen, specifically Ottavino and Barnes. If Taylor tested positive, that's a blow.