Maxbialystock

The only big things the Sox do better is manage. The Rays hitting, pitching, fielding, and baserunning are all better. As evidence I cite game 1 and game 2 of this ALDS. The Rays won game 1 easily and, based on Sale's horrible start, should have won game 2 easily if Cash had taken it seriously as Cora in fact did. Instead, Cash did not use his best relievers, Cora had gambled JDM could still hit with a bad ankle, and the Sox hitting erupted. As others have pointed out, even when the Rays came back to make the score 8-6 Sox, Cash still did not send his good relievers out but a starter instead, and Wacha got stomped on. To me game 1 showed that, when the Rays put their best pitchers on the mound, they can beat the Sox. Cora's smarts ain't much good if the players don't deliver. And game 2 demonstrated that Cora can persevere even when his 2d best starter gives up 5 freaking runs in the first inning. I exaggerate of course because Houck had to pitch 5 terrific innings in relief, the rest of the bullpen pitch 3 scoreless innings, and the Sox lineup to erupt as they did on August 11th (20-8 at Fenway and against the Rays).

I think you are exaggerating, but I agree with the premise that normally, usually you don't want to give away games in the playoffs. That said, however, in 2007 Francona sort of did that. The Sox were down 2-1 to the Guardians in the ALCS, and there were those who said he should start his ace, Beckett in game 4 with just 4 days rest. But Francona reasoned that, since a game 5 was guaranteed, he would rather let Beckett start game 5 fully rested. The Sox did in fact lose game 4, went down 3-1 to the Guardians, and still pulled out the ALCS by winning three straight.

I too like where the Sox stand right now. The ALDS is theirs to win. What I don’t understand is why you now claim the Rays really ain’t so good. Those “little things” are hitting, pitching, defense, and baserunning, all of which they usually do better than the Sox. What we are looking at now is an upset. Why is that somehow unworthy? The Sox having to play the wild card game and starting Eovaldi gave the Rays a big advantage. Cora had to send ERod up against McClanahan, a mismatch which ensured game 1 for the Rays. Fair enough. Then last night Sale handed game 2 over to the Rays in the first inning when he gave up 5 runs, after which catastrophe struck! The Rays, not the Sox. Cora had already set that in motion by gambling JDM, who did not play in game 1, could still hit with a bad ankle and stuck him in the lineup. Then he pulled Sale after one inning and sent in his best reliever in the 2d freaking inning. He gambled Houck could hold ‘em while the lineup kicked them in the ass—which both did magnificently. Cash helped the Sox by not sending in his best relievers to keep that 3 run lead. Cora simply outmanaged Cash, and the Sox bullpen and lineup came through big time as they did in the Nats series. And against the Yankees.

Wrong!!!! The Sox could not go back to NYC for the final 3 games because the had already played them 19 times. Stop making stuff up. I might add the wild card game clearly defined where both teams stood in the postseason. The Sox were better, period.

His look was the same as always, which is as unemotional as he can make it. I do think he choked because he walked the first batter in both innings, which is why Cora pulled him. My heartburn with EROD is his unprofessional defense—he sometimes doesn’t cover 1b on grounders to the right. He has, however, pitched well in august and September. He will start game 4 because he’s the best of poor choices, and Cora will again be ready to pull him early.

His regular season ERA in 2018 was 2.11, basically half what it was in the postseason. Aces rise to the occasion in the postseason. Think Schilling, Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Eovaldi--but not Price. Sale has pitched 26 postseason innings and given up 21 runs. Pedro pitched 96 postseason innings and had an ERA of 3.46. He stunk, however, in 2003 and 2004 and 2009 (with the Phillies).

I doubt that anyone on talksox wants Sale to start game 5.

Well reasoned. I'm arguing from a sense of disappointment in Sale overall. He is the very model of an ace--very professional, great presence on the mound, good command, and good stuff-- but to me he has not delivered, especially late in the season, the way other Sox aces have. Your point about his K's is fascinating--especially the Nats game last Sunday. I'm convinced he's lost his changeup, which gets him down to just two pitches, four seamer and slider, against all those righty bats.

Target hit! See just above for my new version of why you're right.

Interesting. Sunday is Eovaldi for the Sox and he has been great in 3 starts against the Rays at Fenway. He stunk in his only start at the Trop. Baseball being what it is, I would never say the Rays can't win against Eovaldi on Sunday, but on paper it sure looks as though Cash should have tried harder last night when he had 5-2 lead after the 1st inning. In other words, jacksonianmarch is dead right. Cash should have gone with his best guys for--wait for it--their second game in a row after three freaking days off. Cora simply outmanaged him. And let's not forget that the Rays came into the ALDS with huge advantages. 100 wins. Better pitching (by a bunch) and better hitting. Home field. And, best of all, no wild card game in which their ace was used to beat the Yankees.

I think Houck starts game 5 and Sale is in the bullpen. It's crunch time and the rule of recency takes over. Sale stunk last Sunday vs. the Nats and again last night. He ain't starting again in the ALDS. His changeup has disappeared, and his fastball and slider aren't good enough to carry him through 5 innings. In his last two starts combined he lasted 3.1 innings.

I would have called it an error as well. That said, no other bad plays by the Sox outfield and one very good one--Verdugo's insane grab of the foul fly by Cruz. I'm guessing Arroyo didn't get the error last night because the scorer thought the runner would have been safe anyway.

You betcha. The rule of recency counts extra in the postseason. Moreover, Sale has always stunk in the postseason and stunk again last Sunday in a crucial game vs. the Nats. Houck, meanwhile, has gone in the exact opposite direction and has been magnificent in long and short relief. Eovaldi was our ace all season long and was superb Tuesday vs. the Yankees in the wild card game. ERod and Pivetta these days are a crap shoot. If you think I am being unfair to the rotation, ask yourself this question. Why else would Cora have 13 freaking pitchers on his postseason roster when there are all those travel days built into the schedule? He expected/expects to need his bullpen early and often, and he has been dead right. The story of this season has been the bullpen and the hitting. I did have high hopes for the rotation when Sale returned and ERod was looking better (Aug and Sep). Houck was looking good, but was dropped from the rotation the last two weeks because of extra days off the Sox had earned. Pivetta was up and down. Richards and Perez, thankfully, were sent to the bullpen, and early on (9 games) Richards thrived there. When the rotation started to fade late and the bullpen also struggled, Cora relied on Whitlock, Valdez, and Richards for long relief, which worked. Houck has demonstrated it still works. Cora has yet to use Whitlock (second highest WAR on the Sox pitching staff this year) in the ALDS, but he did use Pivetta instead in game 1. Eovaldi will obviously start game 3, and ERod is the inevitable choice for game 4--no doubt again going against McClanahn, giving the Rays a big edge. If Eovaldi wins game 3 and the Rays win game 4, I'm pretty sure Houck starts game 5 on 5 days rest and Sale goes to the bullpen.

Good point. I like jacksonianmarch's analysis, but 14 runs can't all be blamed on the manager. I might add that, down 5-2 after 1 inning, Cora did not hesitate to pull the late, great Sale, and bring in his very best long reliever who has been amazing in October. He decided on the spur of the moment that this game, despite being down 5-2, was winnable and, really, needed to be won. Let's not forget that jacksonianmarch started a thread naming Cora his manager of the year in the AL and that on that thread most talksoxers said Cash is better. Right now I'm thinking Cora is better. The Rays not only won 100 games, but did not have to use their ace in the wild card game as Cora did. So game 1 was a hope pass with ERod starting, and of course he lived down to our expectations, and the Rays pitching was superb. And, to rub things in, Arozarena stole home in the 7th when he saw Devers was shifted by Cora and was nowhere near 3b, thus allowing Arozarena to grab an insane lead.

On Oct 3 Wacha started vs. the Yankees and gave up 0 runs in 5 innings. His ERA in September was 3.60 in 5 starts vs the Astros (0 runs in 5 innings), twice vs the Jays (1 run in 3 innings and 6 runs in 6 innings), the Tigers (1 run in 5 innings), and the Twins (2 runs in 6 innings).

Right now I would start Barnes before Sale. ERod is the only one among Eovaldi, Sale, Houck, Pivetta, and ERod--who can reasonably start game 4. Depending on how he does and how well the Sox are hitting--they will again be facing McClanahan--Houck could be used to win game 4. If game 4 is like game 1, then I think Houck starts game 5. Sale has now had two consecutive flameouts--last Sunday vs. the Nats, a weak-hitting team, and last night against the Rays--in two season-defining games. He has never excelled in the postseason, and this year and especially lately he is struggling. His speed is down and his changeup is completely unreliable--and opposing lineups know it.

The Sox are now 2-1 in the postseason against the Yankees and Rays and despite having just 1 viable starter, Eovaldi. ERod lasted 1.2 innings and Sale 1. This Sox team is all about hitting and the bullpen and an amazing manager. I think the next 3 starters, if needed, are Eovaldi (obviously), ERod (only one available), and Houck (5 days rest). Once again, hats off to Kimmi who, in the middle of the talksox caterwauling Thursday night when the Rays were winning, predicted the Sox would win the ALDS in 4 games. That is now possible.

I only saw the sliders and fastballs and maybe a sinker or two. I saw no splitters. That does not mean you are wrong. Indeed those few sinkers and splitters could explain how Houck went 5 innings against a pretty good Rays lineup. If Eovaldi starts and wins game 3 at Fenway, moonslav is probably right that ERod will start game 4 and, wait for it, Houck game 5 on Wednesday at the Trop with 5 days rest.

Actually, you forgot to check the box score, which show that Sale pitched 1 inning and gave up 5 runs, and four different Rays pitchers gave up 3, 3, 2, and 6 runs. Barnes gave up 0 runs in 1 inning, exactly what Brasier and Robles did. No question Barnes is struggling, but he ain't quitting and his manager has him on the postseason roster.

In three postseason games so far, Houck has 6.2 innings and an ERA of 1.50 Eovaldi 5.1 and 1.69 Pivetta 4.2 and 5.69 Robles 2 and 0.0 ERod 1.2 and 10.8 Brasier 1.2 and 0.0 Ottavino 1 and 0.0 Barnes 1 and 0.0 Sale 1 and 45.00 Whitlock 1 and 9.00 Taylor .1 and 0.0 Richards .1 and 0.0 In those 3 games the Sox are 2-1 vs. the Yankees and the Rays, despite having just one good starter, Eovaldi. ERod had to be pulled after 1.2 innings vs. the Rays and Sale after 1 inning vs. the Rays. This year's Sox are all about hitting and the bullpen. The rotation is a shambles, but, I have to admit, the defense is at least error free in three games--plus a nifty grab last night by Verdugo. Cash is a good manager, but Cora is a maestro.

Without JDM in game 1, the Rays shut down the Sox 5-0. With JDM in game 2, the Sox score 14 and win 14-6 despite a horrendous start by Chris Sale. That exaggerates the reality of course, but the real point is that Cora has been right to try to cram as many good bats into the lineup as he can. Thus, as I keep saying, with no DH in the final series vs. the Nats, Schwarber and JDM started all three games. In 3 postseason games so far, no Sox errors and, last night, a pretty nifty grab by Verdugo.

Shout out to kimmi for saying Sox in 4 during last nights game.

Yes

Houck 5 innings tonight and pivetta 4.1 last night. Gotta be ERod Monday night. Of course Sale could start as Cora’ s version of rope a dope. If game 5, I see houck

Great to be going back to Fenway 1-1 with Eovaldi starting Sunday night. Not so great is the question of who in the world starts Monday night? Houck pitched 5 innings tonight and Pivetta 4.1 last night. Sale right now is worse than Barnes. ERod choked last night, but looks like the inevitable choice. Sunday night with Eovaldi is huge because the Sox actually need that win badly.