Maxbialystock

Cubs pitchers have given up the 9th most BB's.

Coming into this game the Sox were tied for the 10th fewest BB's.

Whitlock to the bullpen, preferably as early as July 4, gives Cora a devastating 1-2-3 punch (Houck, Schreiber, and Whitlock) for the late innings in close games so that 5 other guys can cover the rest. Bam! Bullpen transformed. Eovaldi and Sale are due back this month--hopefully as soon as the 8-11 July Yankees series--which removes the compelling need for Whitlock to start.

I like it.

I must have said a hundred times that Houck was not the best choice to close, but the sucker is 6-0 in save opportunities, and had an ERA of 1.54 in June. So much for my expertise. However, I also like Schreiber and Whitlock coming in for the later innings in close games. Overall, I also agree the bullpen is better than we (especially yours truly) have given them credit for being.

Schreiber WAR 1.4 Houck 1.3 Davis .8 Whitlock .8 (2.9 last year as a reliever) Sawamura .4 Diekman .4 Strahm .1 Valdez 0 Brasier 0 Robles -.4 Barnes -1.0 Taylor (UNK) Eovaldi is due back this month, so I think this is the rotation-- Pivetta WAR 2.6 Wacha 2.1 Eovaldi 1.3 Sale TBD Hill (.3) or Winckowski (.4)

I'm with you. Elsewhere I said JBJ's fWAR of -0.5 is in fact hurting the team. Refsnyder's fWAR is +.7.

Oh, good grief. "There's no way to know" is tantamount to saying that statistics, shifts, ERA's, fWAR's, and all that stuff have no validity because they guarantee nothing. You can see no difference between a closer with 6 saves (and no blown saves) this month and and an ERA of 1.48--vs Danish, who has no saves and an ERA over 6.

We won't agree and that's fine. You prefer to see the downside for the Sox and, no doubt because of moonslav, I prefer to see the upside. And watch out because, as I said, I alone predicted last night's outcome when the game was tied and well before the 10th innings--and I bet on it. I am, at least on talksox, now the seer of seers.

Agree.

The now should have included 2 of the 3 in Toronto, but Houck ducked out. Thus my claim that with Houck the Sox take that series, which followed hard upon taking 3 of 3 @ Cleveland, another winning team, taking 3 of 3 vs. the Tiger, and taking 2 of 3 vs. the Cardinals, a winning team. I was not sold on Houck closing, but now see I was wrong. He has saved 6 games without a blown save and his ERA for June is 1.54. His first save was June 10 @ Seattle, and, including that game, the Sox have gone 13-5, which would have been 14-4 if Houck were vaccinated, against the Jays, Guardians, Tigers, Cardinals, Mariners and the lowly A's. That's what one arm can do for a bullpen.

Good question. The Sox are 43-33 overall, so in the other 8 games they are 6-2.

They are saying July, but no hint about before or after the ASG. He threw his first bullpen session in three weeks yesterday. "Low back inflammation" sounds tricky to me.

Speculation, my aunt fanny. This month was Houck's best single month ever as a reliever: ERA 1.54, 6 of 6 saves including 2 vs. the Cardinals and 1 vs. the Guardians, 1 win, and 1 hold. This will no doubt surprise you, but there are in fact differences between the skill/success levels of different closers--a reality that has haunted the Sox for big chunks of this season. We also have empirical evidence that good relievers made a difference in this Jays series. Schreiber was sent in to face the heart of the Jays order not once, but twice, and both times shut them down.

MLB being what it is, few of you will be surprised that, when I looked at JBJ's game log, I found that the Sox are 37-31 in the 68 games in which he has played.

Some basic math about JBJ. There are 30 MLB teams and more than 30 X 25 = 750 players on the active rosters. Fangraphs assesses JBJ as having an fWAR of -.5. But what gets interesting is that they rank him as the 1217th best player in MLB this season. Loosely translated, that means JBJ should be a part-time, late inning sub or something. Instead, he's ranked freaking 7th on the Sox in at bats. We are almost halfway through the season, and it is unquestionable that JBJ has hurt the Sox this year. And the Sox are paying him $8M--basically, to prevent the Sox from winning.

The Brewers were nuts to sign him for that ridiculous salary (over $10M/year). His overall WAR last year was -.7 and so far this year is -.5.

You dare to disagree with the only one on the game thread last night who predicted the Sox would win before the 10th inning and even bet on the outcome? Houck wasn't a sure thing, but he does have six straight saves and a June ERA of 1.54. You really don't think he would have been better than Danish (with a 6.48 ERA in June and no saves this season or any other) pitching the 9th inning Tuesday night?

The winner!!!!!!

I think you mean lefties. mlb.com says Taylor, who was our best last year vs. lefty hitters, is due back in July. He just pitched twice for AA Portland and could return soon.

Very good point. I clean forgot that Houck, Whitlock, and Schreiber are all lefties.

Listen up for another dictum from Chairman Max-- Knock off the whining about the bullpen because, without making a single trade or acquisition, the Sox already have the ingredients for a good one. When Whitlock returns, which should be soon, he will join the bullpen. Whitlock, Schreiber, who has been unbelievably good this season and who shut down the the heart of the Jays order twice in this recent series, and Mr. Unvaccinated will take care of all 8th and 9th inning situations in winnable games. That's the sore spot everyone complains about, and those three can make it a strength. Now and then, they could even handle the 7th inning as well. I think any of them could close. My personal preference would be Schreiber, but Houck now has six straight saves and no blown saves and should keep the job. Besides, there's bound to be a game or two when he needs to rest. Until Sale and Eovaldi return, the above will put some pressure on the rotation, currently Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Winckowski (who has indeed buckled down), and A Player To Be Named Later. Not great, but not terrible. As for the rest of the bullpen, I'm no expert, but think Davis, Strahm, Danish, Brasier, Valdez, and even Sawamura would suffice--although I like that new guy Plawecki For you doubting thomases, consider this: if Houck had been available vs. the Jays, the Sox win the series. Adding Whitlock will seal the deal.

Actually, I think the Sox problem is that they are in the toughest Division in MLB. Consider: to date the Sox have taken 2 of 3 from the Astros, split with the Braves (58% winning %), taken 6/7 from the Mariners (47%), taken 2 of 3 from the Cardinals (55%), and swept the Guardians (53%). On the other hand, to date they have losing records against all four of the other AL East teams.

Hmmmm. You and moonslav are in cahoots again, so I'm forced to admit defense can be important.