Maxbialystock

As one old-timer to another, may I say I completely agree with your thinking. I just don't see the return on paying one or two guys not only gigantic contracts, but, as someone else pointed out, guaranteed bucks. The Sox paid Mookie Betts a total of $33M for 5+ seasons during which his cumulative WAR was 41. The Dodgers are now paying him $365M for 12 seasons, which equates to $36M/season. In his almost 3 seasons with the Dodgers Mookie's cumulative WAR 12.3. Simply stated, for the Sox he was paid $6M per season and delivered on average a WAR of 8 per season. For the Dodgers, he's delivering 6 WAR (I'm rounding up because 2020 was a short season and 2022 isn't over) per season for $35M per season. And the Dodgers are fine with this because they can afford to give Mookie that much moola. More importantly, they lead MLB in attendance and in wins (81) to date.

FWIW, I'm well aware that JDM, Bogey, and Raffy have delivered tons of mail for the Sox. I think JDM by himself made the biggest difference in 2018 because adding him to the lineup just made everyone else better. And he's been good since--until this year, the last year of his contract. So kudos to DD for getting him. Bogey has been worth every dime, but at age 29, despite his improved defense (his DWAR is his best ever), he seems to have lost his power. Raffy has been terrific this year--just not this month. It is entirely possible that both Raffy and Bogey are fighting injuries. As most of you know, I just like to whine.

The Pirates are 6-24 since the ASG and currently in a 6 game losing streak, so this is an opportunity. However, from August 4 thru August 10 the Sox lost 3 of 4 to the KC Royals and 2 of 2 to the Atlanta Braves. In the 5 games lost the Royals and Braves scored 7, 5, 13, 9, and 8 runs. Then suddenly the pitching picked up against two good teams (winning records), the Orioles and the Yankees, and the Sox pitching gave up 3, 3, 3, and 0 runs in those 4 games while winning 3. The hitting still stinks. As stated above, it's Devers, Bogey, and JDM--the big money guys, which means they already get a lot of money or expect a big contract or both--who ain't delivering the mail. Raffy's OPS for August is .628 (vs .932 for the season), Bogey's is .539 (vs. 813 for the season), and JDM's is .527 (vs .780 for the season). So, lesson learned: paying big bucks guarantees nada. On another thread I've pointed out that Mookie Betts delivered a whole lot more mail (cumulative WAR of 40 for 5 seasons) for the "cheapskate" Sox than he has (cumulative WAR of 12 for 3 seasons) for the "money is no object" Dodgers. Did I forget to mention that this year the penurious Sox are paying Price, Sale, and Eovaldi $63M to deliver a combined WAR of 1.0? Anyone remember who hired those guys? Anyone? Anyone?

Agree with the junk, but tonight it's also well placed junk.

Hill has not pitched better this year than he is tonight, and I don't care that it's the Pirates.

That double was fielded cleanly, but he still had no chance to get Bogey.

Meanwhile, the lineup showed real life with no help from the Pirates defense.

Hill very impressive since the dinger, I’m more than happy to say. I hope he gets a quality start.

Hill starting when Winckowski is available was a bad decision. Hill does not have a good repertoire and therefore needs exquisite control to survive. But his control sucks and not just tonight.

Agree I've repeated the 2021 postseason tale too many times. But what's new is citing the 2012 team, which finished 24 games below .500 but had a comparable team ERA and better hitting than this team, which is 1 game below .500.

I think you are way too optimistic about the hitting, but agree the pitching was excellent (except for Davis of course). The Schreiber pitch for a double was actually not that bad. Just a very good swing by Gamel, kind of like that really, really low pitch Devers golfed into the stands a week or so ago.

Agree on "missing some spark," only I would say the team needs some heat and is currently either lukewarm or tepid. Certainly the hitting last night, despite the 5 runs, was tepid at best. Thus, as you say, the Sox were hitless for the last 7 inning.

On second thought, thank you very much for bringing up 2012, which I had thankfully forgotten. My thanks are because the 2012 Boston Red Sox finished @ 69-93, the worst season in the John Henry era. Interestingly, however, is that the 2012 Sox scored the 8th most runs in MLB that year and had the 11th best team OPS. So let's compare the 2012 and 2022 Sox teams. Both had lousy pitching: 2012 had the 27th worst ERA in MLB, and so far 2022 has the 25th worst team ERA. However, the 2012 hitting--8th in runs scored and 11th in team OPS--was actually better than the 2022 Sox who are 12th in runs scored and 12th in team OPS. But, what the hey, let's just say neither team, 2012 or 2022, could pitch worth a darn and neither had enough hitting to make up for the pitching deficit. Except, except. The 2022 team is one game below .500 even though they are playing in the toughest division in MLB--the other 4 AL East teams have winning records--and play each of those teams 19 times. And the 2012 team finished 69-93, 24 freaking games below .500. Plus, back then the AL East wasn't even the toughest division in AL, let alone MLB. The AL West was actually tougher. And that leads me to my point. I have defended the management of this year's bullpen for the simple reason that I think Alex Cora is one smart manager. And I now contend that every other Talksoxer who believes that Alex Cora has mismanaged his bullpen by not making a reliable closer his number 1 priority simply does not know what he or she is talking about. To remind. I have also repeatedly (ad nauseum, actually) reminded everyone that the same manager basically had no closer in the 2021 postseason which vastly exceeded any reasonable expectations. Everyone on Talksox has dismissed that as so much blather--Cora was lucky, it was only 11 games, and he's still incompetent.

And my contention is that fixing it wasn't as easy as everyone, including you says. Season to date, the three best Sox relievers--in terms of WAR--are Schreiber (WAR 2.1), Whitlock (WAR 1.8), and Houck (1.5). I just checked a list of the best relievers (both holds and saves) in MLB and found that, with few exceptions, those guys have all pitched 50 or fewer innings. The MLB leaders in saves is Hader with 29, and he's pitched just 36 innings. The MLB leader in holds is Devin Williams with 25, and he's pitched 45 innings. Despite having both been on the IL (plus Houck missed the Toronto series because of a needle allergy), Whitlock has pitched 66.1 innings and Houck 60. So could you explain to me why it was dumb to pitch them a lot more innings than a normal closer/holder would pitch when Whitlock has an ERA of 2.98 and Houck 3.15 and the rest of the Sox pitching staff has an ERA of 4.40? Schreiber's ERA, FWIW, is a terrific 1.89, but so far he's only pitched 47.1 innings in 45 games. My guess is that Cora has been cautious giving him longer (2 inning) stints because he's never been anywhere near this good (his career ERA is over 6) in the past. Same probably goes for closing--he's never done that either. And this. I agree the 9th inning is important. But neither you nor anyone else has presented a good argument on why the other 8 innings aren't also important. If Houck or Whitlock comes in to shut down the other team, who maybe scored 4 or so runs off the starter, for the 6th and 7th innings or the 7th and 8th innings, isn't that a good use of their ability? Alternatively--and this especially applies to this Sox team--what good does it do to save Houck, Schreiber, or Whitlock to close in the 9th when the other team rakes the other Sox relievers for 3 or 4 runs in the 6th, 7th, and/or 8th innings?

Despite my smart alec remarks, I think you are right.

Were you at those games? If you were, did you hear cheering when he entered the game? I ask because silence can be deafening.

"Anticipating a breakdown" sounds like booing to me.

In 2012 the Sox ERA was ranked 13th in the AL. This year it's ranked 14th.

I think you have missed a key point. I love great closers, Uehara especially--definitely one of my heroes. All four of the Sox WS teams had good to great closers even though Kimbrel actually stunk in the 2018 postseason (but was terrific in the regular season). My argument is that it's nuts to worry about finding and using a really good closer when your rotation and the rest of bullpen basically stink. To get good value from a good closer, a manager needs a rotation and bullpen that can get you to the 9th freaking inning. This year I think Houck, Schreiber, and Whitlock have all shown the ability to be good closers. However, Schreiber was a gamble when he arrived with his career ERA over 6. And Houck and Whitlock were needed to pitch multiple innings and in fact to start now and then. This didn't happen because Cora is a candidate for dodo bird of the year/century, but because the Sox pitching overall this season is the worst in the John Henry era. Early in the movie Master and Commander Far Side of the World, the captain misuses his crew. He doesn't let them sail the ship or man the guns or prepare to board the enemy French ship because what he really needs to do his get his ship into a fog bank. So he puts his crew into rowboats and they tug the ship (with its broken rudder) into the fog bank so they can live to fight another day--which they do, eventually, after extensive repairs from the fires of the French ship. I think Cora has been managing a similar problem this season and has had to improvise a ton. Forget the pitching and look at the jerkballs he's had to put at first base and in the outfield. As for the pitching, he's used what seems like at least 100 starters and his relievers include two position players. JDM has disappeared, and Devers and Bogey and trying to follow him down the same rat hole. Story, whom nobody likes anyway but has driven in a lot of runs and played terrific 2b, has been on the IL forever (it seems). And last night against the Pirates, whose pitching (ERA 4.62) is even worse than ours (ERA 4.34), the new lineup got 5 pissy-ass singles, 2 of which were dropped by the Pirates fielders. Despite such rotten hitting, the Sox got 4 runs in the 1st and another in the 2d for 5-0, which was sustained by Pivetta who pitched 7 scoreless innings. Then in came Davis who did his level best to give the game back to the Pirates. So Schreiber comes in with the the bases loaded and no one out and gets the first guy out before giving up a base-clearing double--followed by the 3d out and the score now 5-3. And who closes with a one two three inning and two K's? Mr Pariah himself, Barnes. If this game had been played at Fenway, he would have been booed by the home crowd. He was definitely booed on the game thread.

Love the phrase "dead money," but thing Sale, Paxton, and Barnes can still contribute. This year the Sox are paying Price, Sale, and Eovaldi $63M for contributing a combined WAR of +1.0--which absolutely meets the standard for "dead money."

I just like to ride my hobby horse, the one that says Vazquez was vastly over-rated by Talksoxers who claim that Vazquez's "leadership"--what a joke--was what held the Sox together.

Hitting sucked, and the 5 runs were a freaking gift. Pivetta was terrific. Davis stunk and deserved the 3 runs that scored on the double given up by Schreiber. With Houck trying to find a doctor who can fix him, using Barnes to close the 9th was a good move.

I'm not sure I agree. He was going great guns for a big chunk of last year, and I thought the reason was obvious. He had that great knuckle curve and a high 90's fastball, which is almost exactly when made Kimbrel so successful. When Barnes fell off, I thought it was because the knuckle curve wasn't as sharp as it had been. I do not disagree that for whatever reason pitching the 9th in close game does put a lot of pressure on the closer. What stunned me about Uehara was that he had a freaking slow fastball (88-89 mph) and a splitter, period. What made him so good was he had terrific command and just tons of guts. I think Houck, Whitlock, and Schreiber all have the tools to be good closers, but I'm less sure about their self-confidence on the mound with everything on the line.

Well said. I can't disagree the Sox bullpen for the 2021 postseason was pretty bad. But I stand by my assertion that a great closer would not have changed any game outcomes because the bullpen and/or starters gave away games before the 9th inning. Thus the only blown save was in the 6th inning of game 1 of the ALCS. Should Bloom have gone after more bullpen arms last August 1? Possibly. But I also kind of liked picking up Schwarber and Iglesias. I also liked getting to the ALCS after finishing 8 games back of the Rays.

Your favorite tune: the 9th inning is the only inning that counts; hence the crucial need above all others on a pitching staff, is a reliable closer. And once again I disagree. Oh, I love a great closer, with Uehara probably my favorite, especially in the 2013 postseason when he was magnificent, but the closer only becomes key when he is part of a strong pitching staff with a good rotation. Thus my too often cited example of the Sox postseason in 2021, when they had no closer and no saves and yet were way more successful (beat the Yankees in the wild card, beat the 100 wins Rays in the ALDS, 3 games to 1, and finally lost to the Astros in the ALCS, 4 games to 2) than anyone expected. The one blown save was in game 1 of the ALCS when Sale started and lasted just 2.2 innings. Houck pitched the 6th, gave up 2 runs, and got the blown save. Last year, I hasten to add, was successful in part because both Houck and Whitlock were used as multi-inning relievers, plus Houck even started. Before this season, neither Houck nor Whitlock had ever been a closer. And when this season started, Barnes and Robles (when they weren't doing bookstores) had been successful closers in the past. So to me it made sense to re-use Whitlock and Houck in the muli-inning mode in which they were so useful last year. That included using Whitlock as a starter, which made sense given his excellent repertoire. In the first 5 games of this season the starters were Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, Wacha, and Whitlock, and the Sox won the games started by--wait for it!!!--Houck and Whitlock. So my question for you is, where was all your ranting about the complete misuse of Houck and Whitlock back in early April?