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Kimmi

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Everything posted by Kimmi

  1. Kimmi
    Fangraphs pitcher WAR is based on FIP and Inning Pitched.
  2. Kimmi
    A disruptive runner in one study that I looked at was classified as those with the highest stolen base attempt rates, those above 15%, and a minimum of 400 SB opportunities. In that study, BA was .273 with aggressive runners on first, versus .281 with non aggressive runners on first base. SLG % also dropped about 25 points with an aggressive runner on first versus nonaggressive. In another study, having any runner on first improved wOBA for the hitter by about 14 points. Having a disruptive runner on first dropped that advantage to just 2 points. http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/does-a-speedster-on-base-help-the-guy-at-the-plate-051314
  3. Kimmi
    You're exactly right. They are exciting and fun tv. Outside of that, they are overrated. When Henderson stole 130 bases in 1982, he earned his team 22.2 runs. However, the 42 times he was caught cost his team 20.6 runs. So, with all of that base stealing he did, he was worth a whopping 1.6 runs over the season. Henderson's true value as a lead off hitter came from his ability to get on base, not from his ability to steal bases.
  4. Kimmi
    Probably would have gone out yesterday.
  5. Kimmi
    The point isn't whether I'll be happy with a 4.3 ERA or not. The point was that he'll likely be worth his $20 mil per year contract, since he was worth it the past 2 seasons.
  6. Kimmi
    This is the problem with many of the traditional beliefs. They have been accepted as true for so long with no data whatsoever to support them. It's not that you're imagining anything. It's that you're likely to remember the plays that support your opinion and not remember the ones that don't. I'm not saying that there aren't instances when a speedy runner on first really benefitted the batter. There are some exceptions to every rule. On the average, however, batters hit worse with a disruptive runner on first versus having a non-disruptive runner on first. The advantage to the hitter comes from having the guy on first, period. Not from his ability to steal a base.
  7. Kimmi
    Hitters do see more fastballs when there is a speedy runner on first versus a non-disruptive runner on first. However, they do not hit better. In fact, they hit worse. The disruptive runner seems to disrupt the guy at the plate more than it does the defense.
  8. Kimmi
    I don't disagree about the strikeouts. Two things he has going for him though are that he doesn't give up a lot of HRs and he doesn't walk a lot of batters.
  9. Kimmi
    I think you're right. Porcello has been durable. That would still stink if he took a liner off the knee or something and missed a good portion of the season though.
  10. Kimmi
    LOL Spud. Crappy weather everywhere.
  11. Kimmi
    I told iortiz that I would be more than happy to make a sig bet.
  12. Kimmi
    Actually, I think that if he pitches under 150 IP, the bet should be called off. The bet was about whether he could carry his ERA under 4 or not. It's unfair that SoxNCycles would lose the bet if Porcello's pitching well and gets injured.
  13. Kimmi
    And yet, he was worth just over $20 mil in each of his last 2 years. Go figure.
  14. Kimmi
    Thank you mvp. :-*
  15. Kimmi
    When the Tigers defense improved, Porcello's ERA improved. Being a groundball pitcher, it's not a stretch to think that his 4+ ERAs were largely a product of poor defense.
  16. Kimmi
    Or maybe some of us just don't bet. Don't presume to know why I don't want to bet.
  17. Kimmi
    Let's hope the weather holds up for this game. Let's go!
  18. Kimmi
    I'm not willing to bet any money. It's just something that I don't do. I'm sure that you are going to take that as a sign that I'm afraid to put my money where my mouth is, or whatever, but that's not the case. I am very confident that Porcello will post an ERA under 4. If I were the betting type, your bet would be what I consider easy money for me.
  19. Kimmi
    I do not bet on things like this, other than the occasional work pool type of thing. I would be more than willing to make a sig or avatar bet with you though.
  20. Kimmi
    I was thinking something in the neighborhood of 3.7. However, I don't think it's unrealistic to think that he could have an ERA around 3.4 like he had last year. FTR, according to Fangraphs valuation, Porcello has been worth a little over $20 mil each of the past 2 years. His contract amount is not outrageous.
  21. Kimmi
    The benefit to the batter comes from having any runner on first base, not just a base-stealing threat. In other words, having David Ortiz on first base gives the batter an advantage that he wouldn't have if there were no runner on first. The advantage comes from the shifts in defense. If that runner on first base is a "disruptive" runner (Ellsbury) versus a non disruptive runner (Ortiz), some of that advantage is actually lost. There are some exceptions to this, but as a whole, the batter is hurt by a disruptive base runner on first.
  22. Kimmi
    That's what forum posters do best.
  23. Kimmi
    I certainly understand and agree with the 'surgery as the last resort' opinion. If it is possible for Tanaka's ligament to heal with rest and rehabilitation, then you have to try that first. However, if they are only prolonging the inevitable, knowing that he will need the surgery within a year or so, then he probably would have been better off just having it done. But as I said, I'm not a doctor.
  24. Kimmi
    If Porcello ends up pitching well, it won't end up being an overpay. While I understand the idea of waiting to see how he does this year, if he does end up pitching very well, we are likely talking a 6 year contract instead of 4. Five years at the least. The Sox do not like giving out those longer term deals, especially for the advanced ages. And if Porcello walked, the Sox would have to find another SP to replace him. They are taking a risk in signing him this early, but IMO, it's a good risk to take.
  25. Kimmi
    We'll have to wait to see how the others pitch, but Buchholz couldn't have gotten us off to a better start. He set a great tone. I was not a fan of the Panda signing either, but now that he's here, I'm happy to have him on the team. He had a rough game yesterday, but he will be a good upgrade over what we got from 3B last year. I just think Headley would have been a less expensive option. It was great to see Pedroia be able to turn on those inside fast balls. That's a good sign. As good as he was offensively yesterday, I liked his defense even better.
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