Kimmi
-
Posts
27,857 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
4
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Kimmi
-
I am on board with this. No more than 2 additional years.
-
I completely agree that athletes choke, even baseball players. I just think that those who can't withstand the pressure are weeded out before they reach MLB. -
Ha. Or add to the fun.
-
I agree that it takes mental toughness not to choke repeatedly. In that sense, I believe that all MLB players are clutch. There are always going to be moments when even your best players have a bad at bat or a bad pitching outing. I do not agree with the idea of clutch as a player being able to raise his game to the next level in key moments.
-
That's kind of the argument about SSS with the postseason numbers. None of those postseasons are substantial enough to conclude anything with any reliability. The numbers aren't even very reliable if taken all together. Ortiz had 304 ABs and 369 PAs in total during the postseason. It takes 910 ABs for BA to stabilize, 460 PAs for OBP to stabilize, and 320 ABs for slugging to stabilize. While he was approaching the stabilizing point for SLG, he was not really close for BA or OBP. Add to this that the data is taken over 9 different seasons spread out over 15 years of his career, which is no small thing, and those numbers are even less reliable. As the stat people like to say, there is a lot of noise in those postseason numbers.
-
I have no idea what Bloom is planning to do this offseason, but I wouldn't be surprised if we exceed the luxury tax limit next year, and I do expect moves of more 'substance' than what we saw this year.
-
I am guilty of falling into that as well. If someone is on a hot streak and another player is in a slump, I want to see that hot player in the lineup. But the best bet is to put the better hitter in the lineup even if he may be in a slump.
-
That's the true talent of a GM and FO. Anyone can sign a superstar if they're willing to spend the money. It doesn't have to be an All Star. Just a good value player.
-
Stop.
-
I don't know if you read the article or not, but he elaborated a bit in the article at boston.com. https://www.boston.com/sports/mlb/2021/07/10/theo-epstein-baseball-mlb-rule-changes/ His main thing it to pick up pace of play (not necessarily length of game). He wants to get away from the 3 true outcomes of an at bat and get some more action in the field and on the base paths. He wants to get back to more stolen bases (hence slightly larger bases and limiting pickoff attempts.)
-
Ha. I certainly hope so too. I am all about finding these types of players.
-
Agree again. I know many people are under the impression that Bloom and Henry will not spend big, but I believe they will. They will make the big move when the time is right. It won't be the norm, however, nor should it be.
-
Yes, there are studies on this as well. Unless there is an injury, a change in mechanics, or something similar, there is no correlation on how a hitter hit over the past 2 weeks and how he will continue to hit in the next 2 weeks. Same with pitching. It is better to go with season long updated projections than to go with recent hot or cold streaks.
-
Yes, there are always going to be exceptions to the rule. I tend to believe more in the idea of choking than I do in clutch. I do think that there are people who don't handle the pressure well. I think that the 'chokers' are weeded out very quickly at the major league level if they even make it that far. I have seen many instances of a batter being too anxious at the plate in a key situation. At the major league level, however, I don't see that as a repeatable quality either. In other words, I don't believe that chokers exist in MLB.
-
Agree. I think Bloom's goal is for sustainability well beyond 2-3 years, much like what the Dodgers are currently doing.
-
And this is only one of many, many such articles/studies. Statisticians have been trying to prove the idea of clutch for 50 years, even before advanced analytics. To date, there is no statistical evidence that clutch hitting is a repeatable skill. Along very similar lines is the idea of cluster luck. Teams often win their games because of the luck or randomness of being able to string their hits together rather than spreading them out.
-
When you hit or pitch better in key moments more often than others do, it's simply because you are a better overall hitter or pitcher than others are at all times.
-
Being a good hitter is a skill. Being a clutch hitter is not.
-
Confirmation bias. We don't tend to remember the times in which he failed as well.
-
There are clutch hits. There are also clutch seasons. But hitting in the clutch is not a sustainable skill. If it were a skill, there would be some correlation from year to year.
-
Half the time. The other half, not so much.
-
Here is a much more statistically proven look at clutch hitting, with some focus on Ortiz' regular season numbers. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38519/prospectus-feature-revised-look-clutch-hitting-part-2/ There is a lot of math involved here, but the bottom line is that there is no consistency whatsoever to clutch hitting. It is just not a repeatable skill.
-
Not sure who these stat people are that have never attempted to address this, but believe me, stat people have attempted to address this. The problem is the small sample size in the postseason. I know that explanation doesn't sit well with you. Ortiz has played in the postseason in 9 different seasons. Here is the difference in OPS between the postseason and the regular season for each of those years: 2002, -.184 2003, -.316 2004, +.295 2005, +.082 2007, +.138 2008, -.201 2009, -.627 2013, +.247 2016, -.549 So, in 9 postseasons, Ortiz had a better OPS in the postseason than he did in the regular season 4 times. He had a worse postseason OPS 5 times. With that, can you really say that he was clutch in the postseason?
-
You were spot on with Kike being better in CF. I don't think that was the plan for Kike when he was signed, but kudos to Cora and Bloom for going with that change.
-
In terms of bench players, I am thinking a left handed bat to perhaps platoon with Dalbec. I don't think we will see any major acquisitions, but we'll see.
