Kimmi

I agree with you that ERod has a lot of potential. I also think it's possible that he has a breakout year this year. I'm not in any way trying to knock him, though it may seem otherwise. I really like the guy. The stats I posted were more in defense of Pomeranz not being put in the pen. That said, my opinion that it's not a bad idea to start ERod in AAA has not changed. Just to be clear, I'm not talking about keeping him down all season or even most of the season.

I think on paper, it seems pretty accurate. In reality, I think it's very difficult to win close to 100 games, not that it can't happen.

I agree with this. I think the FO will do everything they reasonably can do to stay under the cap this year, but if we're in need of a player midseason, I can't see them throwing away everything they've done in this win now mode just to stay under.

Sorry folks, but Hugh is right on this one. The chances of a batter getting a hit in any at bat, even after an 0 for 20 slump or a 15 for 20 hot streak, is overwhelmingly determined by the overall talent level and performance of the batter (and opposing pitcher), and has very little to do with the recent coldness or hotness of the batter. There really is no such thing as a 'hot hand' or a 'cold hand'. To quote Russell Carleton from Baseball Prospectus, "Several analyses prior to this one have found little evidence to support the claim that a player’s performance in the recent past is much of a predictor of his performance in the present. There have been well-founded mathematical arguments that streaks are simply random variation over a small sample size." And more Carleton because he says it so much better than I can: "There is psychology at work here, but it’s not powering actual meaningful changes in performance. Instead, it’s powering the brain wanting to believe in the hot hand and then going back and reconstructing events so that they fit with the desired theory. It’s backward logic, and backward logic is dangerous........The hot hand theory is more than just bad statistical literacy. It’s emotionally seductive to believe in the hot hand." FTR, I fall into this fallacy myself and will often make statements about playing a certain player while he's hot, or something along those lines. Note to self: Stop doing that.

Agreed. I would guess that home team scorers are a lot more biased than the UZR data collectors are. I believe that UZR does a good job with its single season data in describing what happened on the field that season. However, you do need more than a full season's worth of data to get a good feel for how good a defender really is. It's similar to a batter who goes 0 for 20. His batting average over that span would be .000, which is an accurate account of what happened over that span. However, it is not an accurate assessment of the batter's true ability. For that, you need more data.

The math behind UZR and WAR may be complicated, but I don't think the underlying idea behind what they are trying to measure is. The concept of UZR is fairly straightforward. I don't think the fact that the formula is complicated should take away from its usefulness or validity.

I do try to be fair in what I post. I am not the least bit surprised to read that many players have no use for advanced stats.

While I'm on my fancy stat kick, here are the 2016 cFIP (Contextual FIP) numbers for our starters. FWIW, cFIP is a better predictive stat than any of the other single stat currently used. It also serves as a pretty good descriptive stat. It is on a scale similar to ERA-. The lower, the better, with 100 being average. Sale: 77 Price: 84 Pomeranz: 84 Porcello: 89 Wright: 103 ERod: 115 Maybe we should not be so quick to put Pomeranz in the pen?

I've been looking more into DRA, Deserved Run Average, which takes into consideration pretty much everything you can think of, down to game time temperature. It takes into account who the opposing batter is (strength of opposition) and the ballpark. It takes into account the umpire, the catcher, the handedness of the batter, the run differential of the game at the time, the inning, the base/out state, and more. It's a measure of how many runs a pitcher deserves to be charged with. It does not distinguish between earned and unearned runs, per se, but rather it assigns the appropriate amount of 'blame' to a pitcher for any runs scored against him. Here is how our starters ranked last year: Sale: 2.69 Price: 2.90 Pomeranz: 3.03 Porcello: 3.45 Wright: 3.92 ERod: 5.11 Do with that information what you will.

I call it optimism, but I'm not saying that it's unrealistic optimism. Either way, I think we have a very good team heading into the season and I think there's a lot of reason to be optimistic.

There's still a long time before the season actually starts. Dombrowski may very well pick up another reliever or two. Injuries could (probably will) happen, and ERod has already retweaked his knee. Who knows if there will be any lasting effect of that? The point, which you've already made, is that it seems kind of silly to set your rotation in December or to state so vehemently that ERod will not start the season in AAA.

I agree that ERod will not pitch out of the pen. IMO, that is not a consideration. I am confident that Dombrowski will add the pieces that we need during the season. Wouldn't it be a shame, though, if we end up paying a steep price for a reliever similar to one that we DFA'd earlier in the year because of roster constraints?

I can't fault a player for wanting to represent his country in the WBC. And I personally love watching it. But I would really prefer that our pitchers did not participate in it.

I hope this is nothing serious, but the first time ERod tweaked his knee, it was 'nothing serious'. A 3 day injury then turned into a 3 month injury. Anyway, this reinforces the importance of depth and why some of us would have preferred to keep Buchholz. You always think that you have enough pitching, but then you almost never do.

Fair enough Bell.

S5, here is a timely article written about a week ago on the very topic. You are far from being alone in your opinion of advanced defensive metrics. I disagree with much of what the players are saying, but many people feel the same way that you do. On Players’ and Coaches’ Skepticism of Defensive Metrics

Agree 100%. The best way to assess any player will always be to use as many tools available as you can, from both the stats side and the scouting side. However, if I had to choose only one tool, I would pick UZR. And I would feel pretty good about what it tells me.

I don't think that management would have gone through the trouble of a salary dump on Buchholz if they didn't have a serious desire to get under the cap this season. Maybe they can sign Bautista and stay under the cap, but that will give them almost no wiggle room for any needs that arise throughout the season. Also, signing Bautista will cost us our draft pick. Part of Moreland's appeal is the improved 1B defense that he will provide at that position. Having Hanley DH regularly might also help his numbers offensively. Personally, I think our offense will be fine. They were so good last year that even with the loss of Papi and some regression, they should be one of the top offenses in baseball.

That's a fair point. Or, you could take advantage of the options that ERod has. As Hugh so very well pointed out, a case could be made for any 2 of the 3 to be our number 4 and 5 starters. IMO, it has to come down to what gives the team the best chances to win over the course of the full season, not whether it's fair or whether it will hurt anyone's feelings, etc. People will have different opinions about what gives the team the best chances to win. I have my preferences, but I will be okay with whatever the team decides.

First, I'd like to see Dombrowski pick up another reliever (or two), which may or may not necessitate someone else starting in AAA. Abad has very good numbers as a LOOGY, doesn't he? Not saying that he'll be anything special, but it's possible that he could help the team. It might not be worth it to send ERod down to keep Abad. Maybe we don't need a LOOGY in the pen. OTOH, if Pom and Wright are pitching as well as ERod is, what's the harm in having ERod in AAA for a month or two? The benefits are that it allows the Sox to see what they have in their relievers, including Abad, before DFAing them, it gives the team more depth and flexibility, it allows ERod to manage his innings somewhat, which might be necessary after pitching in the WBC, and it gives us an awesome replacement pitcher when one of the other starters suffers an injury or underperforms. I will state again that creating roster space is not as big an issue as it was before Buchholz and starting ERod in AAA likely won't happen, but it is most certainly worth consideration.

Exactly, and it is usually the most successful strategy. Relievers are so often up and down from one year to the next. You never know who is going to be the next diamond in the rough.

I think it's already been pointed out, but why is it so wrong to tell ERod that he will start the season in AAA, but it's okay to tell either Wright or Pom that they will be moved to the pen? I know there's a difference between being in the pen and still being on the MLB team versus being in the minors, but Wright or Pom probably wouldn't want to be in the pen any more than ERod wants to be in AAA.

You are probably right. I just disagree with it if Pomeranz and Wright are also healthy and pitching well. It would be a different story if Erod were clearly a better pitcher than the other two. But as of yet, he has not established himself as such.

The scouts that are used go through some pretty intense training. They are then tested before they're allowed to become a scout. I'm not sure exactly what is involved in the testing, but I've read that many trainees do not make it past the testing phase. I'm guessing that part of the testing is to make sure the scouts 'see' what actually takes place during a play. Many of the scouts used are former baseball players, coaches, etc., people who already have trained eyes. Each play is scouted by at least 2 different scouts independently and they must come to a reasonable agreement on how to 'grade' the play. If I recall correctly, if the reports from the scouts differ on any play, then it is viewed by more people who then come to a consensus. Also, the scouts are rotated regularly so that one scout is not watching the same player or the same team over and over again. All of these measures eliminate the subjectivity to a good extent. I don't think anyone sees UZR as the be all, end all, but it is a valuable tool that I believe has much more merit than you give it credit for.

It's not that I want Wright in the pen, that's just the way I think it's going to play out, provided that all the starters are healthy. I agree with most of what you said about Pomeranz. I'm not concerned with how the trade looks either. However, if Pomeranz can be an effective mid rotation starter, he is worth more to the team in that role than he would be as the swing man. I certainly think it's worth seeing how he looks as a starter this season. Wright deserves to be in the rotation as well. So does ERod, but since he has options, he starts in AAA. Problem solved.