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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    True - but the Sox still benefitted from unsignability in 2017 ... whom the rules hurt more (sadly - and kind of funny given the draft's alleged purpose) are the smaller market teams, who actually could throw a lot of money at this while other teams focused on big league talent. The farm IS light years behind 2013-2015. That was inevitable. The only playoff team in the ESPN Top 10 for org rankings is #9. The Red Sox graduated a lot of the 2013-2015 group and traded the blocked ones for big league stuff ... which is how you'd want to do it, no? The 2017 draft was productive, now we'll see what 2018 does - and if any of these kids make leaps. It's exciting.
  2. sk7326
    Some guys can do well, others can do badly - stop the presses The interesting piece from the org writeup was that it looks like the org has brought in a lot of ceiling. There is a lot less probability than in prior years - but the talent is there. Now the hope is some of the kids figure out things, third pitches, turning over lineups and such (for pitchers). This is why the falling of the minor league team has not worried me yet - the bottom of the org rankings have some bad systems (Giants) - but also systems who have been insanely productive in recent years (Cubs, Royals, Sox) and who need to reload. The question is whether the Red Sox are doing so - and certainly the early returns on the 2017 draft and international signings are positive, or at least intriguing.
  3. sk7326
    And today - the Red Sox deep dive http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22253672/keith-law-complete-guide-al-east-prospects-yankees-loaded-red-sox-re-stocking ORG TOP 10 1. Jason Groome, LHP (#30) 2. Michael Chavis, 3B (#76) 3. Tanner Houck, RHP (Just missed) 4. Bryan Mata, RHP 5. Sam Travis, 1B 6. Alex Scherff, RHP 7. Jake Thompson, RHP 8. Cole Brannen, OF 9. Travis Lakins, RHP 10. Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP Non Top-100 Prospects
  4. sk7326
    And we will keep some and figure out the rest. We might even trade one of them! This ain't college basketball. If the Sox hit a cliff it will be their fault.
  5. sk7326
    The Cubbies won a World Series where they were outs away from being buried - you know better than to judge entirely on the outcome of the tournament. The Red Sox window is no less open - prime guys same age, yada yada ... the gap is just not nearly as big. This stuff happens all the time - teams are bad, they play kids, the kids get better, they have to restock. Since the Red Sox are rich, they have more means to buttress some of the effects, more "calculated risk" than a cliff. For instance, 2014 and 2015 were bad teams - but the Red Sox had lots of reasons to think they would be good. The cliff, such as it is, will be teams where more things have to go right (but not an unreasonable amount of them). If the Red Sox cannot reload, it is because they picked the wrong players.
  6. sk7326
    I don't know - years of control is a big deal here. 2 years of Chris Sale was bound to be pricey. And the teams dealing them were actually trying to get players back - unlike Miami (the Yelich deal was the first one which got real upside back). The Kimbrel deal was steep, but paid for with a guy who was getting blocked. The Pomeranz deal was again paid for with a low-A pitcher - super talented, but a risk because all pitchers are risks.
  7. sk7326
    We have too many quality under 28 players to say that.
  8. sk7326
    not denying them - just look at them as something to fix, and holding out judgment on whether it will happen. At some point you have to make choices - and ultimately everyone is here to win. The Sox are not in a place that most good teams don't get to at some point. You have a good farm, the kids graduate and you have to replace. There seems to be more uncertainty about the replacements - but things change quickly. What Dombrowski has done well on that front is deal with the farm aggressively - in terms of identifying who to deal, and who to keep. We'll see what happens. The 2015 sell off was bad because of what you said - that was a missed opportunity.
  9. sk7326
    Royals were #26 ... again the vestiges of making moves to win 2 pennants in a row. At least if you are going to trade for the big league roster, at least you are stocking a team that plays in October.
  10. sk7326
    Org rankings ... #24 (down from 16) http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22197478/keith-law-2018-ranking-all-30-farm-systems
  11. sk7326
    Fair point on Shaw - Margot looks like a legit starter ... Moncada has not proven to be replacement level yet, although he probably could be ... again, I think Dombrowski's view is a fair one, that you keep the stars and everything else is fair game ... and the guys he has chosen were the highest ceiling of the bunch.
  12. sk7326
    All true - which is a bummer. There is - so far - exactly one major league starter from that pile. Dombrowski chose to keep a couple of the kiddos - and so far it has looked like the right answer.
  13. sk7326
    When the price gets high, you pay some of them - no farm system stays indefinitely stocked. After all the farm exists to serve the big league club - however that happens. Now whether Dombrowski has replenished is a fair question. Right now, the answer is "some". But every system has these cycles - including the Theo years. And - for the most part, Dombrowski's decision involving prospects to deal have been defensible ones - perhaps even correct.
  14. sk7326
    Also a function of where a team is - the marginal value of a WAR basically. A 60 win team's decision in this sort of thing is much different than a 91 win one.
  15. sk7326
    Remember, one of the guys who would have been on the list died. 3-4 of the top 100 or so is not terrible considering the number of guys who graduated or were dealt the last 2-3 years.
  16. sk7326
    Just missed the Top 100 Tanner Houck, RHP
  17. sk7326
    Flags fly forever - that's why an org does all of this. Epstein I am sure misses Torres - but winning titles is what all of this is for.
  18. sk7326
    Well 3 of the 4 position players are starters already - and Devers, Benintendi have all-star upside for sure. Moncada's rawness still gives him a wide range of outcomes. Pitchers I've stopped betting on.
  19. sk7326
    Pena and Morrison were both uber prospects though - sometimes it takes the right coaching staff to find a home
  20. sk7326
    like this?? http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18520-2018-ESPN-Prospects-Stuff-(Sox-Related)
  21. sk7326
    From the Top 100 ... with a system with a lot of graduates, obviously the Sox are thin at the top ... http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22181590/keith-law-2018-top-100-prospects-nos-50-1-introducing-tomorrow-superstars 30. Jason Groome, LHP, Age 19, Last year rank: 20 76. Michael Chavis, 3B, Age 22, Last Year Rank: UR
  22. sk7326
    Rankings are what they are - without access to what BA actually wrote, it is not that educational.
  23. sk7326
    From the Top 100 ... with a system with a lot of graduates, obviously the Sox are thin at the top ... http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22181590/keith-law-2018-top-100-prospects-nos-50-1-introducing-tomorrow-superstars 30. Jason Groome, LHP, Age 19, Last year rank: 20 76. Michael Chavis, 3B, Age 22, Last Year Rank: UR
  24. sk7326
    Not a great athlete - it's all in his bat ... Pujols dove down in production over that age range (and was one of the league's worst regulars at age 36). Adrian Gonzalez was another cautionary tale - although he remained decent but not at all worth the price.
  25. sk7326
    I am pretty sure there was nothing in the chromosomes which helps in this area. I am glad they talk about baseball - it's not the same as actually doing the job. Now Boone might be better than Girardi - but Girardi sets a pretty good standard. Boone's experience on the media side and playing in NY should help with that part of the job (which in NY and Boston is very large) Of course that is essentially what the "pressure" part is vis a vis managing in these markets. Cora has more actual experience in the coaching/front office side ... with similar media qualifications.
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