It's baseball in October. There are no walkovers. Still, there are more reasons to believe in the Red Sox than the Dodgers.
- Strikeouts. The Red Sox don't strike out much at all. The Dodgers strike out quite a bit. The Red Sox strike out a lot of people. The Red Sox are just better at putting the ball in play. The Red Sox infield defense is shaky, but the Dodgers might not put it in play enough for it to be decisive.
- Offense. The Red Sox put up almost 6 runs a game against a good Astros team, without their two headline stars being at the center of it. With Devers' emergence, the lineup has only a couple of dead spots. There is a ton of versatility. The Dodgers offense is more evocative of an early 2000s super beer-league team: Lots of walks, lots of strikeouts, lots of homeruns. The Red Sox consistency is helpful here.
ON THE OTHER HAND
- Walks. The Dodgers are good at not walking hitters. The Red Sox not so much. The Sox averaged 6 walk/hbp a game in the ALCS. The number shrinks to a "still-not good" 4.8 walks/hbp per game once you remove that 13 walk/hbp atrocity that was the ALCS Game 1. Alas, the Dodgers are very good at taking pitches. The Dodgers best path to winning is via the 3-run homer, and the Red Sox free passes is an open sore on that front.
- Pitching. The Dodgers rotation is a little bit better - with Kershaw being able to just give more innings. Both bullpens are fine, although Jansen is much more reliable than this version of Kimbrel. The Red Sox can hit anybody - but this is a firm test.
If the Red Sox can avoid the self inflicted drama and keep the ball in the ballpark, they should have enough to get by. Boston in 6.