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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. If 30 yo Ryan Brasier had the best rookie season by a considerable margin, no. If he is in a dead heat with a 22 y.o. - I'd be inclined to go with the 22 y.o. ... the sport has problems celebrating its current stars, so a chance to do so is worth taking advantage of.
  2. Ohtani had 3.8 fWAR - you have to add what he did on the mound My ballot would be Ohtani, Torres, Wendle ... Wendle is a rookie, so I have to consider him. But I'd prefer to give it to a young player when its justified ... the award should highlight the future stars of the game.
  3. Torres could, but it'd be a robbery ... Ohtani was easily the best rookie of the class. 3.9 WAR with what is the roughly the equivalent of a full season workload (51 IP, 367 PAs) despite a fairly inefficient distribution of work for him (his bat was a legit surprise)
  4. I'd put them as the #2 seed of our 4-teams ... 2004 I'd put #1 ... better starting pitching, the most complete lineup of the bunch #2 - 2018 2007 #3 2013 #4
  5. Andujar to a degree - Devers is a better investment ... better defender (less shaky at least) and 1.5 years younger.
  6. I think there is a clear number to bring Pearce back - like a year at $6M or so ... put him on the same schedule as Moreland. But the Sox will not stretch for this. Porcello and Bogaerts are both interesting guys to trade - not that they should, but they could get something meaningful with guys they did not plan on signing. Benintendi has another 2 years before arbitration so he is a non-issue for a while
  7. I will retract on Kershaw ... He has 2 years, 70 million. While he'd never get that on the open market, there IS a chance he can negotiate an extension for say, 4/80 where the Dodgers giving him some extra money and years in exchange for some tax relief.
  8. It is an interesting starting market. - I am pessimistic about re-signing Eovaldi. Somebody is going to blow away the market with years and the Sox will reluctantly have to let him walk. - I would not be surprised if Pomeranz got re-signed on some sort of short "prove-it" deal. His health and suckiness last year might scare off a hot market for him. Coming back to this team and re-building his market might be the right move. - Charlie Morton, Anibal Sanchez, Hyu-Jin Riu and Derek Holland are all interesting "old guys" who are possibly gettable for a 1-2 year deal. - I see basically zero chance either Price or Kershaw opt out.
  9. I think that is fair - upon further reflection, swapping him in for Bradley works.
  10. 2004 Damon playoff .268/.297/.465 5-6 SBs ... excellent against Anaheim, terrible against New York (with a couple of obvious exceptions), fine vs Saint Louis Ellsbury playoff 2013 Ellsbury playoff .344/.408/.453 6-7 SBs . Damon's 2004 postseason .268/.297/.465 5 SBs in 6 attempts Ellsbury's 2013 postseason .344/.408/.453 6 SBs in 7 attempts Damon's "greater impact" is almost entirely due to the Game 7 in New York. It was one of the most important games in Red Sox history - but it was one game of a series where he slashed .171/.216/.343
  11. bWAR: 2013 Ellsbury 5.7 2004 Damon 4.3 fWAR 2013 Ellsbury 4.6 2004 Damon 4.3 Damon was better offensively (123 wrC+ vs 112), Ellsbury much better defensively and was one of the league's most impactful baserunners. I don't sweat differences in WAR too too much, but I am comfortable saying Ellsbury was a better all around CF than Damon. I mean if you can defend Bradley despite his adventures at the plate due to his glove, Ellsbury deserves similar consideration. 2007 Youk beat Napoli in WAR in both flavors (though Napoli was not at all bad). Yook's glove and superior on-base skills take the day. While I am considering single seasons - that Yook was on his way to being one of the league's best offensive players does matter to me when trying to settle something close. I've always maintained that Yook's body falling apart piece by piece was one of those real developments that set the team back in 2012, 2014 etc.
  12. Bigger body of work in the season.
  13. He's only done what any half-decent Red Sox manager has done in his first year this century.
  14. Right - because they are player-seasons and not just players. In terms of the players as they were in the championship years, Kimbrel was clearly the least effective closer. Would be have been an upgrade over Mike Timlin. I'll allow that. Ellsbury had a fantastic 2013, and he had the 2 best CF seasons of any Red Sox player over these 15 years. It is easy to forget since he fell off a cliff in NY. Damon's 2004 was brilliant but 2013 JAcoby played the position better.
  15. So - what if we made a 25 man all-star team of player-seasons from the 4 teams. I'll use an 11 man staff, and assume we are trying to win a playoff series. It's fun to really be able to relive the seasons again. C: 2004 Varitek 1B: 2007 Youkilis 2B: 2013 Pedroia SS: 2018 Bogaerts 3B: 2007 Lowell LF: 2004 Manny CF: 2013 Ellsbury RF: 2018 Betts DH: 2004 Ortiz (this is actually the lowers OPS+ of the four DH seasons - 2018 JD is totally justifiable here, but my heart can't go there) C: 2007 Varitek OF: 2018 Benintendi OF: 2018 Bradley IF: 2007 Pedroia IF: 2004 Cabrera SP: 2004 Schilling SP: 2007 Beckett SP: 2004 Pedro SP: 2018 Sale CL: 2013 Uehara Set Up Guys 2004 Foulke 2007 Okajima 2008 Papelbon 2004 Timlin Longer Guys 2018 Price 2007 Wakefield
  16. It is very funny how the perception of the Dodgers is shaped by a loss at home in 2017. The Dodgers got off to a terrible start, were without arguably their best player for the stretch run, and had a good chance to win 3 of the 5 games of the series. They have bottomless funds - they'll figure something out. They need a top of the line starter - because Kershaw ain't it anymore. They'll be fine. I'd put them at #3 probably.
  17. Arb comps are built using basically 1985 level statistics. So I expect middle reliever comps to be generally very low.
  18. The best available first base option for the price is likely Goldschmidt - and the Sox clearly don't have enough to do something there. (I'm not saying ARI will deal, but Hazen is a smart guy - and he will fetch a serious price this offseason if he is shopped) Looking at FA options - really just going 1 year at a time makes sense. Whether that means Steve Pearce as a platoon partner - or give someone like Carlos Gonzalez a first base mitt and take your chances I don't know. If you wanted to be creative - see if Adrian Beltre wants to give it one more go.
  19. He is probably never going to be a great defender - but for a guy like him, the goal is to be able to fake a bunch of them (see Nunez, Eduardo) to get his bat in there. Can he be an upper class Eduardo Nunez? I think that's at least possible.
  20. Yes with Vasquez ... I mean, Leon is a terrific receiver, but he has basically 6 weeks of competent offensive baseball. Vasquez I think can - if healthy - deliver a perfectly acceptable performance at the plate. He's never going to be *good*, but it is clear he knows how to take good at-bats and does a pretty good job making contact. A .250/.300/.380 sort of player with his receiving skills is a perfectly good starter. Swihart still makes sense for me as a backup "C" at worse - and at least capable of being better than that, whether that be as a pure "C" or a sort of catcher-corner supersub. Leon is good for what he is - I'm not itching to run him out of town. But if you have only 2 slots, that's where my head's at.
  21. They could be every bit the team they were qualitatively this year and win significantly fewer games - in fact, that is almost certain.
  22. If he accepted it, I'd be fine - nothing wrong with having a good reliever on a 1-year deal. I don't think he accepts it though. Trading Porcello now actually makes some sense - he is priced reasonably (not a bargain - but not overpaid) and only 1 year left.
  23. A realistic view of 2019. We will not be as good as we were in 2018.
  24. Neither Price nor Pearce was a "bad" choice. Joe Kelly and Nathan Eovaldi were minor steps down from them.
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