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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Right - I'd list 2B as a non-problem. Between Holt, Nunez and whatever Pedroia can offer, there is more than enough floor to go forward.
  2. sk7326
    90-92 or whatever on the fastball is fine if you can locate it with elite secondary stuff and a good approach. Owens clearly was faulty in the latter. I was consistently into not giving up on him because his changeup etc got swings and misses from big leaguers. But you throw your fastball more than anything else, and if you can't locate that you're dead. I mean - for an extreme counterexample - Koji Uehara was able to dominate in relief with an 89-91 fastball. Elite secondary stuff and control gets you a long way.
  3. sk7326
    Merrifield is a major fluke rule candidate - though probably a decent starter. He has shown power in the bigs which he never sniffed in his minor league career - while not being a very good defensive 2B. And he's 29 already. I am happy taking a pass.
  4. sk7326
    Right - Gabbard and Johnson aren't great stuff guys. But Johnson (at least) knows how to pitch - and has reasonably good command. That limits the upside to the 4/5 variety - but that's fine. He can succeed in the bigs as a command guy - as long as you are not expecting more. Owens had a wipeout change and a big league curveball. But without command or control, big league hitters can simply not swing at the potentially elite junk and sit on a fringe-average fastball.
  5. sk7326
    Owens was a disappointment because he had major league stuff. He just couldn't throw strikes.
  6. sk7326
    At worst you are looking at $110M for 13.0 WAR ... which (amazingly) is actually more of a "meh" than a "loss"
  7. sk7326
    Good question - can he make sure that 2 of them don't get injured?
  8. sk7326
    Yep - 40th instead of 30th. Really such a tiny penalty is the real reason why the Sox staying above the tax with a really good team is not really an issue (aside from money).
  9. sk7326
    It's a good trade for the Yankees to make ... that said durability has not been Paxton's forte
  10. sk7326
    middle of the diamond has more hazardous plays than 1B. Any "risk" from 1B comes from just how many putout opportunities there are.
  11. sk7326
    Yeah - injury concern is not really the issue as much as relative substitutability. I think Betts + rando 2B > Betts + rando RF
  12. sk7326
    He did not have the cutter which is frankly what has rescued his career. His fastball was never effective, but the pitch sequence has changed things. Now, he has 111 IP over 4 months basically since his TJS. If the market thinks he can deliver ~500 innings at the clip he provided this year, that's probably a 20 million dollar pitcher. I mean that amply described Porcello - and that deal has worked out reasonably. (not GREAT, but reasonably) Right now the best thing he has going for him is that he did not wear down this year and made all of his starts, and finished strong. I would not blame the Red Sox if the bidding got too hot for, say, deciding a healthy Pomeranz and then diving into the Derek Holland/Anibal Sanchez/Matt Harvey pool would be a better use of resources.
  13. sk7326
    that was Seattle sweeping in with a crazy deal. Betts will get better offers in general - he is 3 years younger entering FA. Indeed my guess is that Betts will end up with a long deal with an opt out that can get him back into FA around age 30 or so. (which is sort of the deals I expect Machado and Harper to sign)
  14. sk7326
    Eovaldi's market is very hard to gauge - there are reasons it could be hot and reasons it might be able to get him for short money. That said I would go 3 years without much regret.
  15. sk7326
    The past performance on Eovaldi is a fair point ... of course he has better pitches now than earlier in his career.
  16. sk7326
    I don't think he is being expected to be priced as a great pitcher - just as a solid midrotation one. Seriously - if you had never watched baseball before and saw Eovaldi pitch last fall vs Kershaw and tried to guess who the better pitcher was ... it wasn't the latter.
  17. sk7326
    Betts wants to embrace his free agency - as all players should. But there is time to change his mind. It's not like the Sox won't be in the running.
  18. sk7326
    I agree there is a risk - but at the same time Eovaldi has put together a unique track record considering. The multiple TJS candidates did not recover at all from the 2nd surgery. I think it will be tricky to resign Eovaldi, though I'd go 3 years myself. He's arguably the 2nd or 3rd best starter on the market. The Red Sox will have to decide how much of a priority is re-signing Kelly. Kimbrel probably is not worth the years/8 figure salary someone might lavish upon him.
  19. sk7326
    Right - he had 3! And the third one rather quickly followed the second. Eovaldi's second came back with a full season of performance and (frankly) better stuff
  20. sk7326
    He has 27 wins the last 3 years ... I don't think maximizing his value is much of a problem.
  21. sk7326
    You are right Kinlser is past his prime. His struggles last year were based on some likely to recur stuff and some flukier stuff (the reverse split). Bottom line, we're okay at 2B and have some ways to insure it.
  22. sk7326
    Right - and Wainwright was also 37 and went right back on the shelf after he tried to come back last year. Eovaldi has some actual performance behind him and is 8 years younger, and developed a pitch to change his career.
  23. sk7326
    Maybe, maybe not. If Cleveland holds the fort for a couple of innings, maybe the Cubs have zero rings - that's baseball. As Kimmi said, once Lester left, the Porcello deal has been fine. Now it has not been a "STEAL" at the price ... but it has not been a ripoff either.
  24. sk7326
    Let's put it this way - if the worst 2B becomes is a Holt/Nunez platoon that is fine. If you really want to, bringing back Ian Kinsler is perfectly fine too. (he had a reverse split last year which had all the makings of a fluke) But between Pedroia-Nunez and Holt we should be able to find 162 adequate games. Obviously healthy Pedroia is the best choice - still a 2-3 win player - but you obviously should not plan on that.
  25. sk7326
    Also I think TJS is not nearly as much of a hindrance than shoulder problems (relative to scaring teams off)
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