sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Probably the same with any of us and our respective real world jobs. Is there a price (and a quality of company) that could get me to relocate? Sure - but (fortunately for now) the price is high.
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I think we're basically seeing a version of the Sox-JD staredown from last year here. I am firmly of the belief that if there were a 5 year deal out there for Kimbrel he would have signed it by now.
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Realistically the Red Sox could be better than last year and win fewer games. That's the nature of baseball. The Red Sox had a Pythag of a 103 win team last year. They were awesome, but they also had some close game fortune. If you just use the WAR projections from Steamer, the Red Sox are proejcted to win about 93-95 games. (if you take the 50 WAR and assume that a 0 WAR team would win 42-45 games, basically the worst teams we have seen recordwise) That seems reasonable.
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ERod will be a Top 30 pitcher or so if he can make 25-30 starts, which has been a chore for him. Eovaldi has a wide range of outcomes, but he can also could be valuable in multiple roles. Obviously the hope is he is a quality starter - something I am fairly optimistic about. The cutter changed his career.
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I just don't see why I should expect anybody to take 30% less. And if you are a team that wants to keep a guy, why would you offer 30% less? That's where I am curious. What is "all about the money"? Players can (and often do) choose better places among close offers.
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Britton was getting his usual obscene groundball rate after he signed with NYY. He is more immune to a modest velocity drop.
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If somebody makes a choice over that little, it is probably not the money alone.
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That is NEVER happening. The two choices (what to pay players, what to charge fans) have little to do with each other. Players aren't all about the money - but this is not a charity either. They are among the 700 or so best people in the world at their jobs. Henry is not as stingy as Steinbrenner, I have no issues with what he wants to spend (and obviously Miami is a much starker version). But given what the fans are asked to do, it'd be silly if he didn't.
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Anybody giving a reliever more than 3 years is playing with fire
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They did this n 1987 and got into very big trouble. The money is out there, I know where I want it going.
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In auction terms it's called the winners' curse. Usually teams in FA pay a premium above the player's true "worth" (in terms of production, whatever) in order to win the bidding.
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If Murray was a Top 10 pick he would make more money in football than baseball. Now, never say never - but the guarantee he got from the A's (the reason the A's took him 9th overall in the first place) was based on him only playing football this year. Boras is tough as they come, but I don't think he'd be great with a client walking away from a deal that is signed. Most of these baseball-football decisions are guys in high school.
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The walk rate is a serious problem - really that was the crux of the issue. He just couldn't throw strikes consistently. I have no problem bringing him back - but there are a lot of comparable options out there.
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the largest items on the expense ledger are player expenses and stadium debt (which the Yankees have). But the industry in general is much much richer than fans think.
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Right - he's an invitee ... I expect little, but I can see why they're doing it
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if he has a real wipeout sinker that is getting groundballs, it is worth kicking the tires on. For a reliever, if you have one premium pitch - there is at least a place to start.
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His relative low worth is driven by his contract demands. If you could get him for, say David Robertson's price - yay. Really, the market has moved so slowly that I am not sure exactly where the Sox stand with any of the guys on the market.
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Regarding the Betts extension. If you take his projected 2019 arb value of $18.7M and let's just say $25M for 2020 (his arb value was $10.8M for 2018 so this seems fair) and add $40M/$42M for two free agent years (used fangraphs estimation tool for a 5 WAR player) , that comes to a total of $125M for 4 years. If you apply some sort of discount rate (like 5%), that comes out to $115 PV. So perhaps a "opt-out period" of 4/120 works, (27.8, 29.2, 30.7, 32.2) which gets more "value" in his hands earlier while saving the Red Sox money (and tax) later. In this baseball economy you have to look at, say the 4 years after that at something like $40+ per year. So let's say 4/180 or something. So a total extension of 8 years 300 million makes sense. There is some room to go higher, but that is what you are looking at imo, more or less.
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If it were me and my career, I'd want him. Remember, part of Boras' job is to welcome the hatred - so his clients don't have to take it.
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In 7 years he is probably Andrew McCutchen now - a guy who has to "play a corner" (instead of now where Betts happens to play a corner because the CF is excellent) but still gets on base more than enough to be a good player, if not an MVP level one.
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Right, I meant that a team signing Donaldson hoping he can be a 5-win player (not expecting, hoping) is not crazy. It's a decent value play. Tulo is nothing like that - the best/worst that can happen is for Tulo to have a good spring and capture Boone's heart for a month the way Grady Sizemore did for us, before turning into the pumpkin that was expected.
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The biggest reason for the escalation of salaries is the escalation of revenue. The players became portable once the sport and the union recognized that they have the same right to switch companies that every other person has. The owners are swimming in cash, as you said. The Yankees are spending barely a third of their revenue on player salaries. To the Red Sox credit, they are spending more. They can absorb it - but they are spending a lot.
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You always want to see what a guy has - he is a former MVP-level player. But this is not Josh Donaldson - who while getting a 5-win season is unlikely, it's not impossible. The Yankees don't lose much here (they have a ton of payroll room), but the reward is probably going to be low too.
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The union will want to get rid of the arb years if the industry is going to treat the luxury maxes like a hard cap. The Yankees for instance are only spending about 29% of their revenue on player salaries. (and spending it on guys who weren't voting playoff shares for their staff) If the team is going to act like it is a salary cap sport, then salary arbitration basically means that teams are getting crazy bargains for these dude's peaks.
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It's the JD staredown with an inferior player. Kimbrel does not have anybody who can meet his desired price. The Red Sox would still like him, but on their terms - and they have a LOT of viable alternatives on the market they can find. The Red Sox have leverage here, and I would not be surprised if Kimbrel comes back with a fairly friendly deal.