sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Chapman has been good, but he has more bWAR this season than the last 2 seasons combined. It is insane.
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If we assume the graduates are out of the prospect pool (Mayer, Anthony) ... what are we looking at Arias, Garcia, Perales, Witherspoon, Tolle ... in some order, that seems plausible
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My guess is Witherspoon slots in comfortably in the Top 5.
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As far as Godbout goes - from at least the usual suspects (Law, Longenhagen, McDaniel, Callis) it seems mostly confident he will be fine at 2B.
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He has a pretty big pitch arsenal - the staff will likely pare it down. One thing about Bailey's aversion to 4-seamers is that he for the most part does not have a ton of super live arms in the system. I think some of the approach is a response to the personnel we have.
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From what it looks like, he basically is another righty with that three quarters arm slot - like Tanner Houck or Justin Masterson. The challenge for him to remain starter is going to be whether he can throw his change up or splitter or some other pitch to keep lefties honest. We know the slider from that arm slot has an even bigger tendency to drift into lefty hitter's sweet spot.
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Law's writeup of Marcus Phillips, #98 on his board The draft day reaction to the pick ESPN had him rated #40. Scouts are divided - some see terrible arm action, some see a real four pitch mix with some development.
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More from Law on the draft day blog https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/live-blogs/mlb-draft-2025-live-updates-pick-by-pick-tracker/LxcVX3nybPKn/
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ESPN had Witherspooon #10 on their big board https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45688041/2025-mlb-draft-rankings-top-250-prospects-final-kade-anderson-liam-doyle-ethan-holliday Fastball: 55/60, Cutter: 50/60, Slider: 45/50, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50
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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6454202/2025/07/01/mlb-draft-2025-top-100-prospects-holliday-doyle/ Law on Witherspoon, 9th on his big board. Good upside if the staff can turn his 5-pitch mix into a 3-best-pitches mix.
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Anything is possible - but the Brewers are like good and stuff. They will need some path to not backslide if they were to do that.
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MVP: Garrett Crochet - it's not really all that close. The big offseason acquisition who has been everything we could have wanted. Runner up: Ceddanne Rafaela - he has improved his swing decisions JUST enough. And the bat now combined with a truly elite CF means he is one of the best CFs in the sport. Will this hold up? Who knows - but he deserves his flowers. Honorable Mentions Aroldys Chapman - nothing about his career trajectory pointed to him being the best reliever in baseball Carlos Narvaez - an out of nowhere catcher solution Alex Bregman - the stint on the DL took him out of the running for more than this ... but he has been terrific. He has been a great leader by reports, but I don't want to weigh that too much in contrast to missing a significant block of time.
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Both Keith Law (Athletic) and Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) land on guys named Gavins in their final mocks Gavin Fien, 3B, Greak Oaks HS (CA) - had the best batted ball data and results in last summer's showcase circuit but had a meh season in high school this spring. (ESPN's pick) Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee - great batted ball and swing decision data, things the Sox are using more now. The Sox were super college-heavy last year and there is a lot of college depth this season.
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The statistics and metrics distinctions as being used in this discussion are mostly total rubbish.
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It might be true. The vibes are better for sure. But - at least for now - running into a couple of ho-ho-horrendous teams helped everybody get well.
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A lot of this is software as notin pointed out. Effectively cameras and computers are watching every ball hit - especially now with statcast at all the stadiums. The defensive stats now are much better than the old fielding percentage days, simply because there is better data going in. I mean, consider fielding percentage. If we replaced a Red Sox outfielder with a paint bucket - and just left it there. If 1 fly ball landed in the bucket, the fielding pct of 1.000 would be amazing. But we can't say the paint bucket is a good substitute to like, a person. We just have vastly better information on players getting to the ball - which is really what defensive value is for the most part, no? As far as being skeptical - any be-all stat without context deserves skepticism. Is UZR better than defensive runs saved or outs above average? I have opinions, but the real answer is that all of them together give good information. I mean, we accept that batting average, slugging, on-base all provide incomplete pictures of hitting ... but in combination it's not too shabby.
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A lot of his analysis has conflated statistical inference and data analysis as "guess work" which honestly veers too far into Carl Everett Dinosaur Theory for me.
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I think the trade was silly. But that is separate from how the team is doing now - it's not like there is some salary cap calculus. But what the winning streak I think has shown is that really what this team needed to do was to "play better" ... there was no magic here. There was no magic adjustment or anything - guys who the team were counting on (Giolito, Story, Rafaela) just started to play better.
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The Sox could have afforded to keep him - it's still a silly trade. That said, Breslow's moves have all been hits so far - even if the Chapman signing is total found money. (there was zero reason to believe he'd be the best reliever in the AL)
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Sigh. Fielding percentages are based on errors - which is, at its core, an opinion. And of course fielding percentage says nothing about actually getting to balls. Yoshida is certainly better against lefties than Abreu - but they are both quite bad. And Abreu is arguably a more valuable hitter against righties ... higher higher slugging with only a slighly lower OBP.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
sk7326 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It would be nice to have Priester for sure. The draft pick was probably the prize of the trade - so we'll see there. The .206 kid in A-Ball is less damning than it seems - given how young he is for that level, and at least by the stat line some good swing decisions. But it'd be nice if he showed more. -
Abreu's splits are not actually that different than Yoshida. Yoshida has that "proven hitter" smell because the team signed him to hit. Duran had a terrific season in 2024 - though it was his best defensively by a mile. He has been less effective defensively this season at a nominally easier position - but the question is whether 2024 is the rule or the exception. As long as this is the lineup, Rafaela will get some spins at 2B. But Duran makes as much sense as anybody to be traded due to positive value. I'd probably deal Abreu first - but it's not obvious to me.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
sk7326 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
After his record setting shortest walk off homer ever, nice to see Ceddane get to hit a no doubter. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
sk7326 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The first 6 were against hot garbage opponents, but credit where it's due - the Sox won those games decisively - which was not happening earlier in the season.
