sk7326

The Athletic's recap of the Sox class: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6498722/2025/07/18/al-east-draft-grades-picks-mlb-2025/?source=emp_shared_article

Witherspoon's success at the SEC is notable ... the SEC is probably closer to AA-level competition as it is, and his secondary stuff is rated higher already. Tolle is super interesting, but almost his entire outlook is driven by whether he develops any secondary stuff at all. I can see a more bearish outlook. (and 9th in this system is not all that bearish)

The nice thing about Bello is that he did not have to improve much at all to justify the extension and the price tag. Rafaela was a bit more wobbly - but still cheap. Even if it was unnecessary, it is a bit of who cares for me. Campbell was a bit more reckless. But I think getting him more confident/competent defensively is going to be at least as important in his AAA stay as the bat.

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) revised Sox Top 10 - considering Mayer a graduate, Anthony not (for now) 1. Roman Anthony 2. Franklin Arias 3. Password 4. Luis Perales 5. Juan Valera 6. James Tibbs 7. Kyson Weatherspoon 8. Dorian Soto 9. Payton Tolle 10. Connelly Early he has Ayenson and Phillips cracking the Top 20

LOL. The farm is there to serve the big league club so you have to be pragmatic. My guess is if the team trades, you are looking at that sort of next tier ... guys that probably have appeal to a significant number of teams. If a team thinks Mikey Romero can step in and be a reasonable 2B/OF next season I could see that (he's still so young). The Red Sox also have interesting guys like Valera and Soto who are just so far away (and Valera being a pitcher comes with the health risk). And if a team's scouts or models liked Miguel Bleis, are they still in? And that probably is not going to get you a super premium guy. I think the only way the Sox put in a Top 10 prospect is if we are talking about some guy who feels like he shouldn't be available (like Kris Bubic).

Indeed - I've always argued the time to deal Betts was the 2019 deadline. It would have hurt - but if he was "never coming back" you have to be clear eyed about that and maximize the real return. Obviously "mookie is here forever" was the best outcome, but the player has a role in that too.

I am still mostly against the deal though at the end of day more indifferent. The original sin was the huge deal made almost entirely as a PR reaction to letting Bogaerts walk.

Absolutely. The team control there is tremendous. And could he be amenable to buying a couple of free agent years via extension? That said, he is cheap to the Pirates too, and there is merit in giving your fans some reason to roll out of bed.

It's also incorrect. The premise that teams are backing away from data is completely wrong. Hell, the team this forum was built to argue about just had a big purge of its scouting department! The Astros killed their pro scouting staff. Other teams are doing that and leaning more into StatCast. Other teams that use lots of scouting aren't skimping on the data necessarily - heck the Rays of all teams have been on the forefront of big spending on scouts as well as the analytics. Now he is right that "how do you turn data into performance" is the most important thing - but yes, teams are showing players what their launch angle is and measuring their adjustments accordingly. It'd be stupid not to. Also, the assertion that teams use data for things other than something like WAR is kind of a tautology. He seems particularly mad at WAR, though not even the companies that calculate it would tell you that it is like 0.1th of a win accurate or anything when assessing player value. That said, he has also explicitly blamed DEI for Alex Cora being the Red Sox manager - so I kind of know how much faith to put into his analysis.

Garcia has done better with his swing decisions. He still might not be a great OBP guy, but a plus RF with his power is still a totally reasonable starter if that can be actualized.

I am pretty sure both Mayer and Anthony will burn their rookie eligibility - so removing them from the field I think is fair.

White was the one guy I saw a writeup on the Athletic or ESPN ... from Law's others to watch outside the top 100:

NIL is part of it. The bigger part of it was the contraction of the short season leagues by MLB. Ideally you'd take some these high school bats and just send them to Lowell to get their feet wet. But that option is gone now and it's either the complex league or Salem, which is a tough place to enter cold. And in the Sox' case specifically - if the team really is going to lean more into Statcast and away from in person scouting, then high school is where that will be felt the most. The Red Sox new scouting paradigm will also be challenged on the international front - their international scouts are the reasons for almost all of the org's pitching the last few years.

see if they go the full 10 rounds (where the bonus pool comes from) without a single high school player draftee

for a good reliever possibly - especially given his age. All it takes is one club to still like him a lot. But it does point to imo that there are a decent number of guys with some sort of value (Romero, Bleis, Cespedes, Sandlin) the team could likely put into a buyer's trade without a ton of remorse.

Not surprising. It is just very hard for relievers in general - and 1-inning guys in particular, to pile up the bulk here.

Chapman has been good, but he has more bWAR this season than the last 2 seasons combined. It is insane.

If we assume the graduates are out of the prospect pool (Mayer, Anthony) ... what are we looking at Arias, Garcia, Perales, Witherspoon, Tolle ... in some order, that seems plausible

My guess is Witherspoon slots in comfortably in the Top 5.

As far as Godbout goes - from at least the usual suspects (Law, Longenhagen, McDaniel, Callis) it seems mostly confident he will be fine at 2B.

Ayanson #38 on Law's big board Henry Godbout #57

He has a pretty big pitch arsenal - the staff will likely pare it down. One thing about Bailey's aversion to 4-seamers is that he for the most part does not have a ton of super live arms in the system. I think some of the approach is a response to the personnel we have.

From what it looks like, he basically is another righty with that three quarters arm slot - like Tanner Houck or Justin Masterson. The challenge for him to remain starter is going to be whether he can throw his change up or splitter or some other pitch to keep lefties honest. We know the slider from that arm slot has an even bigger tendency to drift into lefty hitter's sweet spot.

Law's writeup of Marcus Phillips, #98 on his board The draft day reaction to the pick ESPN had him rated #40. Scouts are divided - some see terrible arm action, some see a real four pitch mix with some development.

More from Law on the draft day blog https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/live-blogs/mlb-draft-2025-live-updates-pick-by-pick-tracker/LxcVX3nybPKn/