sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Will Red Sox pursue Japanese Ace - Masahiro Tanaka?
sk7326 replied to vjcsmoke's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Both Barnes and Owens are plausible - De La Rosa less so, Ranaudo probably a better bullpen candidate. I am thinking they are much more inclined to look at one of the non-tenders like Hudson or Haren who can be had for short money or a year. That said, kicking the tires on Brett Anderson is worthwhile - he is a gamble but if the cost is not too high, one with a very very high potential return. -
5 years older, was awful last year against righties, suspended for amphetamines. Had a power season in 2012, but extremely out of line with his career dossier. Salty much better prob to make 100 starts ...
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It is fairly clear that McCann > Salty ... but 2-3 years of Salty > 6 years of McCann ... that is the equation i think that teams might be looking at (certainly Boston is)
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It makes sense ... he is not going to get that AAV on the market with the pick penalty attached to it. With him under contract, it means that Boston can deal him to any team that he consents to. Considering how attractive a top flight shortstop on a 1-year deal is, there is a pretty good chance all sides will get what they want.
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A deal is there with Salty I think - personally I'd demand that he stop switch hitting as a condition therein.
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The NL should just adopt the DH. More strategy when you have more competent players. Also, NL baseball fans are the only fans in all of sports who are vehemently defending the need for an incompetent player to perform among the best players in the world.
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Was actually chatting on the twitter with @keithlaw, @overthemonster on some of the QO stuff. From what could be ascertained, a player who accepts a QO has to consent to be dealt before June 15 ... but that is usually not a deal breaker. So it is possible that someone like Drew could take the QO, knowing that he could have a wider market via a de facto sign and trade than as a free agent with compensation tied to him.
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I have to assume when they non-QO'd him that both sides were at least in the ballpark. A 2-3 year deal makes sense, although I do not discount the possibility of position scarcity causing a team to do something crazy with him.
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#2 - Morales is a QO guy - non starter for a guy as disposable as he is. Corey Hart is a good buy low opportunity. #3 - Rajai Davis is OK. I'd actually take a flyer on Chris Young. Plus defender, has power and speed. Strikeout machine and OBP has been a problem in the past. But gives Bradley some platoon help as needed, and could possibly be a lot better than that. #4 - Wilson, Nathan are interesting. I'd keep a finger on the market for Phil Hughes - he is a prime conversion candidate. That said, we can also look at other arms internally - De La Rosa, Webster, Ranaudo are all interesting names. As 2013 showed with all four LCS teams using closers they did not enter the season with, it shows that we should be ready to expect Uehara to not be the answer in 2014. It is just good planning.
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I think it'd be for Dempster clearly. Hudson or Haren would make sense in both cases. Anderson is intriguing to kick the tires on ... legit #1 ability, but had trouble making starts. There is a lot of upside to be had there, but clearly don't want to lay out too too much.
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Overall I take a relatively indifferent view of Tanaka - would be an interesting sign, and he could fit into the Red Sox economic analysis calculations. But if they decided to address any starting pitching depth by throwing a 1-year deal at a Tim Hudson or Dan Haren ... or seeing if there is a buy low opportunity with Brett Anderson, that would work just as well.
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What you tend to expect with NPB pitchers is that generally they pitch away from contact, and that they tend to use a lot of different pitches to get it done. There is a lot of deception involved, and the cat and mouse game between pitcher and hitter seems to be emphasized. Tanaka has several different pitches, as did Dice-K, as did Darvish. But you get here, you need to be successful in the strike zone, and the best way to get there is to go from throwing 6 or 7 pitches to the 3 or 4 pitches you command the best. Coming to the US, you'd expect Tanaka to be encouraged to stick with the fastball-splitter-slider combo and maybe tinker with another pitch. If his splitter is really plus-plus and his slider is solid, that is a guy with a pretty good chance for success. Dice-K never simplified his approach as is necessary here. Darvish clearly has had no such issue - although you can argue that Darvish' pure stuff is better than Matsuzaka's. At the same time, Dice-K's consistent low BABIPs suggest excellent stuff which largely was ruined by crappy approach.
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He does by the reports have at least one swing and miss pitch. Pitching to contact is a good thing and will help in the big league transition (as long as the stuff carries) - we have lived life with away from contact, no thanks. I do think the wear is a legit question. But an extreme strike thrower with a swing and miss splitter is a #3 with #2 potential, especially as a 25 year old. I am not saying I am in on him, but I understand. It's such a shaky market for pitching (see Ubaldo Jimenez) that it is the plunge you take if you want a high end starter.
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One thing I did try to check on Twitter was any restrictions to trading QO'd players. Apparently, as far as I can tell, there is no waiting period on flipping a QO signee (unlike say the NBA which has a 3 month waiting period for a free agent signee). So, if that is true - then I have to stand corrected on a lot of what I thought about Stephen Drew getting offered a QO. We can look at him in a lot of ways, but if he takes the QO, that suddenly could very well give the Red Sox the best available SS on the market for a VERY palatable contract ... I suspect a lot of teams would be banging down their door. Now from what I can tell, the CBA has restrictions on newly signed FAs being dealt. But do QO accepters fall in the same category of guys who take salary arbitration in the old system (like how the Rays got Rafael Soriano). The research is very hazy here. But if signing and trading QO'ers is actually possible, Drew makes a ton more sense.
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Gonzalez was older. And also, and this is a risk with corner guys ... he was not an amazing athlete. Good for a 1B, but not especially athletic. The transition when he slipped was stark. Also I think scouts underestimated how much of his plate discipline in San Diego was driven by being the only good hitter in a horrid offense. Gonzalez was a higher risk to fall off a cliff - although he was also seen as a sure thing by the industry. His dropoff in 2012 and beyond caught a lot of people off guard - I think a lot of teams were ready to have that happen to them,
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Scanning some other places for the Red Sox to shop ... if they are on McCann as some have reported, I am not sure another "QO" player is of great interest. OF is a place where some improvement is possible. Chris Young (OAK) is a good buy-low candidate to me for someone who could wrest a starting position and/or provide some righty platoon backup for Bradley.
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It is, but additional revenue streams are going to be opened up for them - between the infusion of the money from the new national deal as well as their own revenue bump coming off of a WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP!!! season.
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Maybe not 50% .. but $17 or so makes sense for his productivity and the value of the productivity to Boston ... of course he'd have to get there. Certainly the idea of him getting a base salary under $10M is more or less out the window after this season. (and of course the numbers assume a team with sufficient payroll and sufficient playoff aspirations) The years on the other hand will always be an issue for him.
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Congratulations, from Liverpool, England
sk7326 replied to knellerman's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Soccer is fast though - it actually only takes 2 hours to knock a game out. It has that thing baseball has (especially when the stakes are high) where the big play can happen at any time. The World Cup is the most obvious big stage, but on an idle Saturday put on the Premier League on NBC - it's a good show. Minimal fuss, the game moves along well. Perfect for a morning. -
By the happy accident of the cohort he is in, yes ... on merit it'd be hard to get to Darvish
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I doubt 3 years is in his future. But I could definitely see a 1-year + an achievable vesting option (say 500 PAs) ... with a higher base salary (maybe starting at $13M this year and incentives to get you towards another 50% or so)
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I am sure Sarah MacLachlan will be writing a song for them once such outlays are made.
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That is reasonable. Given the national TV money kicking in and such - it might not be a zero sum decision.
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We'll see what happens - but that sort of commitment for prime NPB guys is not atypical. And you get control of peak years.
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Will Red Sox pursue Japanese Ace - Masahiro Tanaka?
sk7326 replied to vjcsmoke's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
What IS interesting, and one of the deeper areas of the Top 50 is the "Dempster diving" (pun fully intended) - a good number of pitchers with some solid "depth starter" upside who should not require a giant commitment. Among them: Paul Maholm, Josh Johnson, Scott Kazmir, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson ... Phil Hughes and Jason Hammel more a prime candidate for a relief conversion Jesse Crain, Grant Balfour, Joe Nathan are interesting relief options although the price could spiral too high quickly there