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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    2012 WAS an oddity ... but the decline from 2011-2012 at his age is more typical than the rise to fringe-MVP level from 2012-2013. To say there is no age-related downside is silly, although if he were just an average player the next 2 years the contract is a huge win for Boston. At the same time, yes, I am encouraged because he made a couple of permanent changes which might have lasting positive impact - especially giving up left-handed hitting.
  2. sk7326
    Well it depends on their priorities and what they are willing to pay - their desired profit margins and such. The revenue will go up - winning a title does that. This is not an argument for taking on a long term deal, unless it was a Cy Young winner who is 2 years younger than Jon Lester and not likely to sniff a 90 win season anytime soon - not that such a player is remotely available. But short run value plays are not bad things - especially if it allows them to deal with the rest of their pitching in a manner they want. Now, I do think Peavy is locked in, but he also has a pretty friendly deal by today's standards - as long as you are not expecting Oscar Taveras coming back or anything. I don't mind the idea of signing another veteran and spinning Dempster off ... given Buchholz' health there is merit, especially if Allen Webster's early non-groundball tendencies are a harbinger. Overall, I think the pitching question is interesting - because there is some market upside - but clearly if they stood pat, it would not be a tragedy.
  3. sk7326
    The obvious "timeshare" name is Chris Young - righty plus defensive CF with some three outcomes sort of upside. At the end of the day, you have to treat LF as an open job, and RF as at least something you need some mild protection for. (Victorino's comeback at 32 is enough of an oddity to want to be prepared)
  4. sk7326
    Now the rotation is not a huge priority certainly - but there are positive value fliers out there, and a couple of staff ace sorts in the trade market to at least see how unreasonable the demands are. Certainly I wouldn't put this ahead of relief pitching or improved certainty in the outfield.
  5. sk7326
    The cost in dollars is less of an issue than the years - why Hudson or Haren are attractive is that they might only require a 1-year deal, especially for a title contender. 1 year and something with incentives to get to $15M or so is not at all unreasonable for a team like Boston.
  6. sk7326
    Darvish' WCB experience (which drove a lot of Matsuzaka's scouting too) gave a good look at his potential. His height and stuff were enough that if he wasn't a sure thing (and who is), his probability and upside were very very high.
  7. sk7326
    A multi-year is fair if the downside protection is sufficient. They wanted it last year - so it stands to reason that they would want something again, though it might be as simple as the protection they had in LAckey's case.
  8. sk7326
    Ummm ... Hudson was also successful in the AL ... as was Dan Haren ... Dempster should be moved, but if he isn't, that's OK. He is disposable on a playoff roster, but he is invaluable for the marathon. Also - he has a good contract, I would not eat salary without getting something of value coming back.
  9. sk7326
    I doubt Napoli gets a clean 3 years from the market. Perhaps 1 year + option, MAYBE 2 + option. He was a 4-win player last year, and for a team in Boston's position (playoff contender, significant marginal revenue per win) that is a $16M-$17M sort of dude. I'd feel more comfortable having that be an incentive laden upside. What we can be assured is that he will not be signing for a $5M base salary. As far as Koji goes - he is the closer to start the season, and you use him basically the way Farrell did. Limit the work early, but you definitely want him to have a few 4+ out saves from a perspective of conditioning. Furthermore, best to be prepared for Koji to not be the answer next year. Certainly he won't be as good as he was this year, because that is basically impossible.
  10. sk7326
    Basically - this is the value we applied to Tim Wakefield's presence. That he took his starts and kept a staff organized. He struggled at times, but that was not the point. And the industry has priced that single value quite high now. Jackson had a bad season, but a #4 starter who doesn't miss turns has innate value. Even Dempster proved that. Every start you don't need to wheel out Kyle Weiland or 2011 Tim Wakefield is a win for your rotation.
  11. sk7326
    It was not good - although $13M a year is a fair contract for proven innings soakers like Jackson. Dempster was a much better value obviously. His record was not perfect - but it would be disingenuous or stupid to mention the past without noting it's the best decade in modern Red Sox history. It was when they went away from it that it got muddled up. Indeed, in 2011 they were a 90 win team that got crushed by injuries in the pitching staff. That the media narrative became the folklore does not mean it actually was true.
  12. sk7326
    He will get it. Shortstop replacement level is much worse than it was a decade ago when Nomah was walking the earth. Drew and Peralta are clearly the best SS options, with Drew having a solid edge defensively. You don't think a contender would pay $12M a year for a 4-win shortstop? He'd be worth MORE if he did not have such a checkered injury past.
  13. sk7326
    Ellsbury was awful down the stretch in 2008 - that's why he was benched during the biggest part of the season. Crisp had some potential for sure but he has clearly settled into what he is: a good CF to have until you find a better one.
  14. sk7326
    This isn't Theo Epstein's era ... it's Theo Epstein's lieutenants. Cherington won using the 4th highest payroll in baseball, the team leaders from the 2007 team and the former pitching coach and PawSox managers who he and his boss brought in. 2013 didn't repudiate the Theo Epstein era, it reinforced it.
  15. sk7326
    Not arguably - but Darvish was also much better than Matsuzaka stuff-wise. Of course Matsuzaka was great stuff wise too - that was not the problem. I am not sure how the new posting agreement will work, but I believe finishing in the Top 3 is what matters as Tanaka will have some sort of choice. At least that is what the reports indicate will be part of the new posting agreement.
  16. sk7326
    Have to look at market inflation. It is more a supply-demand question than using a past pitcher comp.
  17. sk7326
    Those 2 titles and 5 playoff spots in 9 years ruined my day many a time. A reign so bad that all his former assistant GM had to do was rehire a bunch of guys who were in organization before 2011 to win a title again.
  18. sk7326
    We can't ... but Gonzalez had an MVP-caliber 2011 season and power was not a problem. The injury hampered his power somewhat maybe - but that was only a modest part of him turning from a potential MVP into Nick Swisher overnight.
  19. sk7326
    Bad games can be painful, but that describes baseball too. What I will say is, a 1-0 game with about a dozen good, serious scoring chances can still breeze along.
  20. sk7326
    Stanton has played more than 125 games exactly one time in his career. This is not Andruw Jones who was in his 4th year as a durable starter and heading towards "best defensive outfielder of his generation". This is not Adrian Gonzalez, for whom most of the 30 GMs would have made that deal given the circumstances. That he fell off of a cliff in 2012 is not something typical of a 30 year old ... certainly not one coming off of the 27-29 seasons he had. Stanton could be a cornerstone OF, but his injury history is a concern - and corner outfielders are rarely worth emptying the farm for. He is a strong on-base guy, good hitter with 80 power ... but he has had trouble staying healthy and adds no defensive value. The Marlins would need a Bogaerts to justify the deal to a very skeptical public - but he does not warrant it.
  21. sk7326
    23 year old Andruw Jones obliterates the other two ... assuming the total package matters.
  22. sk7326
    Catcher is not a need. Could you upgrade on Saltalamacchia. Sure. Could you downgrade and make yourself happy talking about defense? Sure. Replacement level at catcher is basically zero and at status quo there aren't half a dozen teams with better catching situations than ours. Laying out a lot of money on McCann does not create much marginal improvement at that position. He is an upgrade - but for the cost, not a large one. Relief pitching is a need - as is the case for every team. You cannot go in expecting Breslow to give that performance again, or for that matter Uehara. Some of this can be sourced internally, but shoring that up makes sense. More starting pitching is a fair ask if it's not too pricey. Getting some improvement from the outfield offensively would be nice too. Victorino's turnaround was shocking and you have to anticipate some regression for a 33 year old. LF we created a positive situation out of platoons - but Beltran for a short hitch would be an upgrade. But with a QO attached to him he is a non-starter.
  23. sk7326
    Makes sense - although the games waste less of your time for the scores. And some of the best games get you to 3-2 or so.
  24. sk7326
    Webster's upside is not insane - mid-rotation ... which is good, but I'd listen on. The walk rate can be fixed. The homerun rate and groundball rate for a sinkerballer was alarming. De La Rosa has some real promise though. Kemp is one of the 10 best players in the league when healthy. That said, his injury history might be worse (and more problematic) than Ellsbury's. Ellsbury has had some rotten luck on freakish injuries ... Kemp's problems (hammies, shoulder, ankle) speak to stuff which have some pretty good chance of recurring. The Dodgers will drive a hard bargain though - well they should. He is their best player. Ethier they'd drive to the airport.
  25. sk7326
    Oh if you are looking at "healthiest franchise (on the field) for the next 5 years" the answer is CLEARLY Saint Louis ... though Boston is among the elite in that field too ... I mean the media drooled all over Wacha, yet they have at least 3 pitchers with higher ceilings not make a start in their postseason. (Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal - who is a guy with Top 2 starter stuff put into closer since they needed one) And one thing we know is that if an org is lacking depth somewhere, a bottomless supply of arms is a good asset to use to shop for depth.
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