sk7326

I think the Victorino deal was a bit of an overpay too - but it turned out very well thankfully. Comparing Ellsbury to Damon, you basically have a couple of things in Ellsbury's favor: 1. Ellsbury is 2 years younger than Damon was 2. Defensive measurement is light years ahead of where it was in 2005. There are more ways to quantify how Ellsbury is a better player than Johnny Damon (which he is) Now the second thing is a plus and minus ... a plus in that it is a large advantage, but it might not be one that lasts in 3 years. The injuries really affect Ellsbury's valuation ultimately.

With Ellsbury, I think the valuation comes down to basically one question. Is he injury prone, or just caught a couple of freaky breaks. If you can slough off the injuries, then he could be a pretty solid bet for the next 3 years at least as a quality CF, between the athleticism and the approach. But if a team doesn't want to, I get it. I don't think there are 30 HR seasons in his future - between "fluke rule" and the scouting explanation (he just started to feast on a pitch which teams don't throw him much anymore), but he is no slap hitter. The trick is trying to get teams to see his injury history his way.

LMAO ... let's put it this way, the Ryan Howard contract will be the flag bearer for ho-ho-horrendous deals for the next couple of decades

I'll take CYA for $500 - of course if he did not sign off on such a large commitment (even just staying - sign the best guy, which Crawford was in that class by some measures) that is quite derelict.

A really bad re-sign for Philly (a 2 year deal made some sense ... for somebody else, assuming the PED suspension and horrifying 2013 and age did not frighten you). A lot of "GM under pressure" in these moves. Once you realized he was not serious about dealing Lee, it is hard for a Philly fan to have a ton of hope for the near term.

Boras got 14 million a year for an innings soaker upper ... I don't think any of his clients are weeping. Both sides have interest in saying what they say. Generally in a battle of wits between Boras and an average baseball owner, I'd pick Boras. (I don't say GM because on some basic level, the contracts of this ilk are ownership level choices)

Gomes was in because Farrell liked him over Nava for whatever reason. I will refuse the appeal to authority ("Well we don't have the info the manager does" and the like) and say it was somewhat suboptimal, but not by a margin that killed anybody. Ellsbury I think we are just talking about some very large dollar figures - and if ownership is concerned about the luxury tax, which is their prerogative, that is a legitimate concern. The Red Sox are doing some due diligence, and they do have a little bit of leverage here. They have a substitute with potential, a fan base that will not punish them for the short term - winning a title will sell enough pink hats to assure that at last early - and a team without essentially no real holes. Yes, catcher is a problem since you'd get a lot of passed balls without one - but replacement level is so low that being below average there doesn't really hurt you that badly. The number of teams that need a guy like him AND can pay the price is not high - just matching teams with need, I'd put the Rangers at the top of the list, but yes the Yankees are always a factor. That said, some more imaginative options to me might be San Francisco or Anaheim (who is in that arms race with the Dodgers for SoCal moolah). Frankly if I were Pittsburgh, the marginal revenue calculations could favor a high dollar, short offer, although I'd be surprised if that ever happened. (they were a playoff team who got zero from their RF spot for most of the season, the marginal boost Ellsbury could give might actually create a business case).

Tim Hudson to Giants - strong signing after the Lincecum face plant. Hudson going into a division of hitter's graveyards bodes well.

Whether it be McDonald or somebody else, the utility infielder is not a huge deal ultimately. Heck, we might not even need to really deal with landing one in the offseason.

Phillies getting Ruiz is idiotic (for 3 years) ... the Red Sox terms made more sense even if you disagreed with the valuation a 1st rounder for 2 yrs of Beltran does not make sense to me. McCann (though I disagree) would be much more palatable for a QO price.

I think it's more likely they give him a chance at 1B than at C, at least as far as major reps goes.

I think it was the

Well the posting system (which actually resembles the soccer transfer system a bit) is in limbo - apparently NPB has been slow in responding. That said, the Japanese Players Union approved the hardest part, still letting one team (the posting winner) have exclusive negotiating rights. The snag is that some owners want the posting fee to be counted towards the luxury tax. I think things are OK on the Japanese end, though there is some grandstanding by Manfred.

AFL is skewed to offense - lot of time facing pitchers who have had some very serious workloads.

The dropoff from Napoli to Carp is uncertain, and could be large. Remember that Carp was entering this season seen largely as a AAAA sort of guy who was sent away by the Mariners, as offensively starved an org as it is. If you had an in house 1B/DH solution you would not be signing Kendrys Morales. The Red Sox got a lot of production out of him in a limited role - and there is considerable risk that he can actually cut it over 500 PAs or so. Obviously that is why you bring in a righty partner - but you need more than a guy to soak up the 60 or so games a lefty will be out there, you need somebody who could actually win a job. Middlebrooks in a hybrid role could be that guy - Corey Hart could be also.

Clearly we know where Boras' incentives are. But a guy doesn't retain clients by giving them poor counsel or work - and certainly absorbing the PR hit for his client is part of the gig. If Ellsbury wants to go somewhere, it's on him. I tend to be relatively unsentimental here - the Sox will have a quality CF either way.

Ellsbury wants a life changing deal - Boras is the best in the business at delivering one. If Ellsbury wants to take a little less to stay with Boston, it's his prerogative, but I do not expect him to order Boras to go in that direction.

Any change in the bullpen would be almost all "luck based" - that is a good philosophy for staffing the pen (guys who are on their way up, or former washouts like Manny Parra). That would not affect my view of the games won. You'd lose some offensive production in catcher, though defense might be better (enough to offset - I don't know), and increase ceiling and risk with the infield, though I am all for it. The outfield with Berry would weaken the product, especially with the considerable production risk in LF to begin with. But I'd have the same outlook I had for the team entering 2013 - 85ish wins, capability of a lot more with good health and some things going their way. Definitely not a team that'd ruin our summah (ruining the fall is another matter).

He was solid in 2012 - but got hurt. And betting on athletic ability and a decent approach is not a bad thing. After all, we are auditioning for a 4th outfielder not a future stud. And he is a much more useful defender than Gomes, although Gomes makes an adequate LF.

He signed a lot of guys he knew. Farrell, Lovullo, Beyeler were all in the organization the last few years. Butterfield came from Toronto, but one of the top defensive instructors in the league. Nieves was an interesting hire, but a sensible one for Farrell. He worked under Don Cooper - who is one of the best pitching coaches around, and Farrell did not need to outsource that job entirely. There was room to show a guy the ropes there. For what its worth - I think Ben's plan B if Farrell didn't work out (if I recall, signing Lovullo and then hiring an old pro like Gene Lamont to hang around for a year or two) would have also been solid.

If Sveum did a poor job, it would have been an easy choice. After all, Bobby was ownership's choice - so he'd have been even harder to fire than Sveum. But Bobby made it easy for them. Farrell became the obvious choice due to the team's affinity from back in the day along with Toronto not exactly unwilling to make a change. Cherington got some power due to 2012, and I think some validation for the way they did things under the previous leadership ... enough to steer the ship in that way more or less. If healthy, this team is a contender next season (like the outlook this spring largely). You don't predict repeats in baseball - because it is just a very fluky game, and you have to WAY ahead of the rest of the league (like the 1998-2000 Yankees) to really be able to exert that sort of mojo. The best team doesn't win the title quite frequently (unlike say the NBA), and teams can be materially better with lesser results (like the 2013 Orioles). As Billy Beane noted, a GM can only create a team that can get to the playoffs - after that, it's largely up to the 25 guys to figure it out.

Young is, if right (and a big if considering his 2013) is better than Gomes - Three True Outcomes guy with serious power who is a plus defensive CF. He'd make Gomes expendable if anything - or force Gomes to figure out how to use a 1B mitt.

Frankly, my guy has been Chris Young - who probably wants a 400 PA gig at least, so it might not be in the cards. But you want defense, some platoon ABs with Bradley, and somebody legitimately good enough to flat take the LF job ... it might leave Gomes homeless, but dem's the breaks. And yes, if I were Gomes, I'd take reps at 1B this offseason just in case.

Nathan was a better pitcher than Wilson when both were healthy (Nathan had low BABIPs throughout his career, enough to show evidence that he was a part of that), and the Rangers had a bit more need than Boston did. Now the argument for Wilson - and one I do respect - is that last year there were serious concerns about Uehara's durability. (that was why he was able to be picked up on relatively favorable terms after all) He ended up thriving in by far his most grueling season. Can that continue? Wilson will have the same sort of questions - but you do double your odds of getting through the season there. That said, I think if you throw a firehose at the bullpen (Dempster-De La Rosa-Workman-whomever, come on down!) something will emerge anyway. It usually does.

It's not an either/or thing. There was a lot of drama - but as of June 29, the team was 1.5 games out of a playoff spot with the 2nd best run differential in the AL. With all the adversity they were muddling through - but the injuries (especially the Middlebrooks one) were too much to overcome (and then THIS is where the manager's idiocy came in) and no leadership to pull the car out of the ditch. (if it were possible with the Pedro Ciriaco show playing). After the trade, it was just a AAA team being thrown out there. There is a lot of character and toughness and makeup in our leaders, but (as in any labor scenario), you can't be an example when you are not able to show up for work. That is where the manager can pick up some of the slack - like Tito was able to in 2010, and like Bobby failed at thoroughly 2 years later.