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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    All you need for a 5-15 stretch is a half a dozen one-run losses (and those games are basically coin flips) and a few injuries. The team came together last year and had remarkably little adversity. I do agree that our team won't collapse because we have leaders who are used to winning a lot. As long as the guys are healthy they will be some version of good.
  2. sk7326
    I don't know necessarily - the trade is defensible on its merits, as Kinsler is arguably better than Fielder anyway. Kinsler's bat can play at 1B or LF or 2B, wherever they want to put him. There is shine here for both teams.
  3. sk7326
    I think he is about 85% likely to come back. If the Red Sox meet him halfway (I am thinking 2 years with a reasonable vesting option for year 3 or something) he is back here. The Detroit-Texas deal was interesting for both sides. Rangers needed both a 1B and a way to stop jerking around Profar - Tigers gave them both.
  4. sk7326
    Good players, solid guys ... Beltran (I disagree with signing him for baseball reasons) has been on a lot of good teams. He has had a lot of postseason experience, and whatever sample size that is, he has done well. I know you questioned his loyalty, because he had the temerity to go seek a living and take advantage of his free agency rights, but that is severely misreading what a professional is. Team spirit and chemistry are important, but the first thing is good baseball players and (as much as you can control) healthy ones. You can't lead from the training table, and any amount of good team spirit can be crushed by a bad losing streak. Now can the team spirit overcome the crushing injuries the way the 89-73 2010 squad did? Or will it collpase like it did in 2012. That is a matter of leadership - and Farrell has shown that unlike the guy who ran the ship in 2012, he is at least engaged.
  5. sk7326
    Every prospect sounds like a superstar when you look them up on Soxprospects or wherever. Brentz will be entering his Age 25 season next year - if he was ticketed for stardom, he'd already have shown up. He is being protected, which is fine. But he is far more likely a "guy" than he is a "Guy!!" A strong clubhouse is important - but you generally can't build it. And if they can't play baseball, whatever chemistry you have will go down the toilet during your first 5-19 stretch. And if they got along, who cares at that point? I think re-signing Napoli is at the top of their list - but there are a lot of options out there, and they have the obligations to the fans who get the most demanded of them of any fan base, to do the best thing for the franchise.
  6. sk7326
    Winter Meetings will be when the dialogue gets particularly hot and heavy normally - also at that point the trade targets start to figure prominently.
  7. sk7326
    I would suspect in Hart's case we are looking at a 1-year deal with a low base and an 8-figure upside. Like Napoli's with more burden shifted towards the player. Beltran is a multi-year thing (2-3 I'd reckon) ... I don't think it's nearly enough bang for the buck considering the pick penalty.
  8. sk7326
    Certainly that is what the notoriously cheap (well, cheap considering the biggest market on earth) Mets are hoping for. The market is slow with the top guys - which makes sense. Just a lot of waiting to see what happens with Cano, and then the rest of the dominoes can fall into place. Essentially Cano (easily the best player in this cohort) will set the market, so I think a lot of guys are waiting to see where he ends up.
  9. sk7326
    It's not about ease - it's about how easy it is to learn. To get from 0 to acceptable, it's pretty simple. To get to elite requires something - but you can't take elite glove without a bad, or else you get 2012 James Loney, which is largely a waste of a lineup spot. Fielding is one of the things which can be taught, and often has to be taught at the professional level - instruction in fielding is just sorely lacking in high school and college levels. When Butterfield came over he had a reputation as a great fielding instructor. You take a good athlete, good coaching and a position which is not that physically demanding and you have to like your chances to get to "good enough".
  10. sk7326
    LOL - not actually that much, but among the "not quite starters" field, I'd like to have some real upside. Can dream a little more on his talent. If somebody wanted to go cheaper and say Franklin Gutierrez (who was probably the best defensive CF in the league before injuries came along), I would not argue too vehemently.
  11. sk7326
    The mistake here is that if you REALLY think Carp should be part of a platoon - paying Napoli makes no sense ... certainly paying him the going rate to be a Carp did have a small sample size which yes matters. What also matters is that Seattle (though yes, they could have been wrong - we have benefitted for a decade from the Twins mis-evaluation of a 1B/DH sort), one of the most offensively starved systems in the entire league, passed on him. I like what he has given us in a part time role - but I would want some options in case he cannot handle a more involved one.
  12. sk7326
    If there is one position on the field that can be taught (and often is - whether it be Joe Mauer, Buster Posey etc), it's 1B. If there are two positions, it's 1B and LF.
  13. sk7326
    Josh Johnson to Padres - another strong move for both parties. No better way to rehab a career than to go to a hitter's graveyard.
  14. sk7326
    Still a 2-win player as a 37 year old, although some of that will increase moving to an easier position. He is still a reasonable starter, if not an amazing one. I would not judge who the front office values based on the playoff roster. All the 25-man playoff roster was for was to determine who the team thinks can get them through a 1 month tournament in October 2013 - no more, no less. Quintin Berry was on the roster for having precisely one big league skill, but one which is valuable when all 14 of your position spots count. (contrast this to Saint Louis who wasted 2 roster spots on two pitchers they almost never used) But he is by no means ahead of Bradley in the org pecking order. The front office's decisions on players have a much longer time horizon than their decisions on who makes the playoff roster.
  15. sk7326
    Considering that 1B is the home of guys who can't do anything else (save the odd Keith Hernandez-JT Snow types), this is not that big an obstacle. And since Beltran is a better athlete than the usual convert - this is an area I'd be less concerned with. Napoli - with less athletic skill, but yes more training - turned into a solid 1B defensively. So coaching up the skill is not at all unprecedented. This ain't shortstop.
  16. sk7326
    I meant Gomes - and the probability on Beltran is higher in the short run - though yes the platoon is effective, enough that LF is not an urgent priority. That said, if you can get one person to man the spot, that is one less roster spot needed in this age of 85 man pitching staffs
  17. sk7326
    Really, if you want to look at the Red Sox objectively, you'd probably say that LF there is absolutely a job opening, same with C. And that's about it. So Beltran is a totally legitimate short term option to play LF and he'd be an upgrade over Nava/Carp. The quibble would be the price - since he is QO'd. As far as 1B goes - between the general nature of the position and the Sox having Butterfield on their staff (who is reputed to be one of the best fielding instructors around - and fielding being one of the places where pro instruction actually can do a lot), I think they are happy signing the bat and figuring out the glove later there.
  18. sk7326
    8/200 or so sounds right. He has another 2-3 seasons of legitimate MVP level in him, and perhaps a bit more than that given the positional value of 2B. He is a terrific athlete and has good hitting skills - his back end will be overpaid, but more than likely overpaying fringy All-Star level production than overpaying a replacement level stiff. Obviously the risk in a long deal is his ability to avoid injury and such - but the percentages are with him given past and such.
  19. sk7326
    Probably not - and Hart is really more of a 1B look than anything. But LF/1B are similar searches. If the Sox had a full time option in mind for LF they would not have had the Gomes fetish for so long. Now Hart is not an urgent priority but it would be irresponsible not to do the due diligence.
  20. sk7326
    Brandon Phillips is not a good player anymore while Kinsler is good and theoretically available. Cano goes back to the Yanks - he is their best option still. Cardinals - lot of old history, especially before baseball went westward.
  21. sk7326
    It's a perfect pickup if the terms are reasonable - starter upside and there is at least one job opening for somebody to snatch up in LF.
  22. sk7326
    Generally you can ask a team take salary or send an actual player, but not both. Also, if you hate him that much - cut him. Money is already gone.
  23. sk7326
    I'm sorry Brown University North Campus rankles so.
  24. sk7326
    The odds of Ellsbury retaining CF skills are low - although how long that will take is a legitimate question. I actually think "can he stay leadoff" is a far lesser concern. The approach he showed this season would allow him to ride out some of the loss of speed. After all, he is not a slap hitter who leans on bunts or infield hits for production. It is possible he slips from a 50 SB guy to a 20 SB one as he gets older - but one forgets how long Kenny Lofton remained an effective top of the order bat. Obviously as an outfielder as you get older you rely more on your ability to get breaks and positioning (and hopefully coaches who understand it too), The near term valuation of Ellsbury is pretty rock solid - depending on how you factor in the injuries - it is the shape of the performance curve afterwards that is interesting. I like his chances of remaining an effective top of the order bat into his mid-30s ... I would not pay what he is asking for it though.
  25. sk7326
    Well the Yankees have been an outlier for years (as have, to be fair, we). I think the "everybody else" is where the inflation has come from.
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