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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Yeah, it's not like Farrell playing match ups with a 6 run lead yesterday.
  2. sk7326
    I don't doubt the market. I thought he was a 22-25 million commodity entering the season - because folks undervalued exactly how valuable a #2/3 starter who was a lock to churn out 30 starts a year was. I'd imagine they need 5 guaranteed years to start - maybe vest the 6th and a team option after, like they did with Ortiz but longer. You are right - they have made this unnecessarily difficult for reasons which make sense if this team were the Padres.
  3. sk7326
    If we make the playoffs - it will be because the offense has gotten "good enough" and the run prevention has become elite. That makes us a dangerous floater - but first things first.
  4. sk7326
    Flags fly forever. If this was Pittsburgh, sure - but it's not. The franchise charges fans too much to skimp like that. Yanks got a title out of it and 3-4 really good years - they just had almost zippo behind him (at least "postseason good" level). They also put a contract in with a player option - which CC cashed in on. That's Cashman's fault - nobody is asking the Sox to put in an escape clause in year 3 for Lester. A 4-5 year deal with a reasonable vested option for another year is completely acceptable for a guy with no injury history and a low effort mechanic sort of delivery.
  5. sk7326
    I know he has been struggling - but life with a move to the rotation. For a team with just gushers of young pitching coming up, he is the most electrifying stuff wise - but just needs a chance to figure it out.
  6. sk7326
    Strong buy-low candidate. Good approach, can play the corners. Clearly the injuries have been a problem. But there is a job opening in LF for the right guy - and I'd at least be up for kicking the tires.
  7. sk7326
    We like the pitching to contact part - you'd like a few more swings and misses of course, but the approach is right. A lot of where these kids can go is about patience and recognizing progress. I am not predicting any sort of comeback for the Sox - but they have the ability with Victorino's return to really take off on the run prevention side - perhaps enough to be able to surge without a huge offensive upswing.
  8. sk7326
    K rate is not where you'd like it - but he has been very effective, and the Ks have flowed in some starts. Clearly he is the most gifted of the Sox starters in the high minors (over Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo etc) - question has been ability to harness it, and whether he could turn a lineup over 3 times. The indications are strong that he is for real as some sort of starter.
  9. sk7326
    To be fair, Tavares is a superstar in waiting - he was going to take somebody's job.
  10. sk7326
    Rubby has been terrific - clearly the best stuff of the kids - glad the command has gotten better. And certainly while Jackie's offense is a chore, his effect on run prevention is huge.
  11. sk7326
    I think the Sox can play both sides of the fence here. The division is bad and totally winnable. Sox need to go 41-25 the rest of the way to get to 85 wins, which is a total that gets you in the ballpark to win the division (obviously would like more, but showing this is not a crazy ask). The question I think is whether you think the kids are their best path to victory - an argument you absolutely can make. Trading Uehara I don't think is preferred, but he is a very movable chip and a position which can be replaced relatively easily. (not without risk) I think Oakland in 2001 did these sort of maneuvers - it is being opportunistic while still trying to add smartly. I don't mind the rebuild, but I worry the franchise is a bit too dogmatic about player salaries to avoid being cheap unnecessarily.
  12. sk7326
    It is possible, although age and resign probability considerations impact that. But I'd not hesitate to deal him if a good price came up. At the end of the day reliever for "good prospect" is almost always a good idea.
  13. sk7326
    Since Nava was not in scoring position, Bogaerts hit the homer - since like Fred told me he can't hit in clutch spots
  14. sk7326
    We have been blessed with a great closer - but there is no reason to spend a ton of money on the position. Closers are like running backs in football - good to have, but very very fungible. (applies to relievers in general) Teams like Oakland and Tampa have shown this, there are many exhumable corpses that can be made into effective closer sorts.
  15. sk7326
    1. Odds are Lester will be a top of the rotation guy in 2 years - better than odds than Lee. 2. When his decline starts most likely, he'd still be a 200 IP #3 sort of guy. $20M seems rich for that, but by 2016 it probably won't be. 3. You don't need a "true #1" to win it all - we already proved that.
  16. sk7326
    Sox are a huge bounceback play for next year ... considering the youth they are playing and the likely improvement. The closer thing is a non-issue ... they will find somebody if Uehara is too rich for their bloodl. I suspect they will move X to SS, possibly still this season. They signed Drew because 3B was a disaster for them ... no reason to play him if contention is not realistic. The team is not far away at all. Sox had 2 of the AL's top dozen position players last season - between Bradley's slow start (and the Sox Sizemore dithering) and Victorino's absence that has been a huge failure. Take the replacement of a 2-3 win catcher (warts and all) with the tattered remains of AJ Pierzynski and you had even more dropoff. But there are signs of life on all of those fronts.
  17. sk7326
    1. Yes, trading Bogaerts for Stanton makes sense 2. The position things matters a lot - and Bogaerts bull evaluation is based on being a SS. That's the tricky part of the evaluation - the Sox moved him to 3B because 3B was horrible for them and there were solutions at SS. But if his reality is as a 3B, things become trickier. Anyway, slump has been a problem - but not a reason to necessarily quit on a 21 year old. Sox have mishandled aspects of their kids all season - although some of it was well intentioned.
  18. sk7326
    Any life decision made on a 400 PAs for a kid who still needed a fake id this time last year is highly speculative. The team has not hand strong hands with their guys - but as Bradley is showing lately, strong hands is a good thing. Clutchy McClutherson was no issue when X was starting in the biggest games of his life - and the advanced at-bats that came with it. He will get better, but you have to trust the evaluation.
  19. sk7326
    .395 BABIP raises tons of suspicion ... though his line drive rate is up, but way outside of his career trajectory. This sort of line screams "regression" - but that's ok. He is performing now, and now is what matters.
  20. sk7326
    ruh roh, clutchy mcclutcherson ...
  21. sk7326
    Jonah Keri provides some optimism http://grantland.com/features/mlb-the-30-red-sox-yankees-blue-jays-orioles-al-east/
  22. sk7326
    I agree with the Red Sox in theory - that you don't want to go 5 years with 30 year olds more or less. However - you have to make individual evaluations, and sometimes you overpay to win an auction. The question is do you think you will get 1000 innings of #2/#3 sort of production on average (you build in some decline)? I think with Lester it is almost assuredly yes - certainly nothing he has done up to this point (where he is a clear #2 starter level, who has #1 performance in him) with his performance and injury history and mechanics suggest he is a huge likelihood to get hurt.
  23. sk7326
    I expect him to turn into a pumpkin - I expect other teams see that too. But no reason not to ride the wave while he is proving us wrong. With the dumpster fires at 3B/SS and LF, there is work for him.
  24. sk7326
    Question is whether Vasquez can hit at the big league level. The good news is his minor league history has enough contact that it seems unlikely he won't at least provide empty calories at the plate. Add that with defense, and you have a true starter and an all-star if he can hit like he did last night more regularly
  25. sk7326
    I wouldn't be either - but they have made the moves they should have made much earlier. They wasted a month or two of development time on some very low probability projects. This lineup is unlikely to win the division too, but it has a better chance. Certainly it can help the run prevention, which was good already.
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