sk7326

.395 BABIP raises tons of suspicion ... though his line drive rate is up, but way outside of his career trajectory. This sort of line screams "regression" - but that's ok. He is performing now, and now is what matters.

ruh roh, clutchy mcclutcherson ...

Jonah Keri provides some optimism http://grantland.com/features/mlb-the-30-red-sox-yankees-blue-jays-orioles-al-east/

I agree with the Red Sox in theory - that you don't want to go 5 years with 30 year olds more or less. However - you have to make individual evaluations, and sometimes you overpay to win an auction. The question is do you think you will get 1000 innings of #2/#3 sort of production on average (you build in some decline)? I think with Lester it is almost assuredly yes - certainly nothing he has done up to this point (where he is a clear #2 starter level, who has #1 performance in him) with his performance and injury history and mechanics suggest he is a huge likelihood to get hurt.

I expect him to turn into a pumpkin - I expect other teams see that too. But no reason not to ride the wave while he is proving us wrong. With the dumpster fires at 3B/SS and LF, there is work for him.

Question is whether Vasquez can hit at the big league level. The good news is his minor league history has enough contact that it seems unlikely he won't at least provide empty calories at the plate. Add that with defense, and you have a true starter and an all-star if he can hit like he did last night more regularly

I wouldn't be either - but they have made the moves they should have made much earlier. They wasted a month or two of development time on some very low probability projects. This lineup is unlikely to win the division too, but it has a better chance. Certainly it can help the run prevention, which was good already.

Tazawa is a fine choice too. Frankly, my view on Webster is based on feelings he has knockout stuff, but I have serious reservations about whether he can turn a lineup over 2-3 times.

Allen Craig is a 2014 Tony Phillips sans cocaine. His glove is not great but not awful on the corners, and his bat plays. Or an offensively skewed Ben Zobrist, whatever you like.

The problem is - like Boston - Saint Louis is a good baseball organization.

Peavy is a good clubhouse guy who has been durable. His contract is expiring also. He may or may not help in October, but if a team wants to get through the marathon, he still has value at a reasonable price.

The youth movement was something they should have looked at coming out of camp. What Bradley has shown (and to a lesser extent Vasquez) is that they can field the hell out of their position. They can contribute in terms of run prevention while the hitting part got figured out. It would have been nice for him to have the extra 100 or so PAs the team frittered away on Sizemore. Betts is a surprise clearly, nobody expected the monumental leap he made this year - and he is still being a little overpromoted. I see on rebuild threads that the kids is waving the white flag. I don't see that all - I see the kids as the only reasonable path to winning THIS season too. Assuming Victorino is not going to return to his downballot MVP status of last year, the kids have the ability to improve with reps to a much higher degree than the veterans they have been running out, especially in the outfield. The rest of July is very reasonable, and there is a run to be had here. The East is still a mess, but the Red Sox have a chance to make enough noise in the next two weeks to still potentially be buyers. I am not saying it's likely - but it's not crazy either.

We "found" Uehara last year. Just means we'd find another one: Personally, I'd try out Allen Webster

League minimum for 1 year of Christian Vasquez sounded nice too

I am against a Lester trade. I am pro any good deal for any reliever - Uehara included. They are wholly fungible. I'd like to keep Uehara, but if he can get a Top 50 prospect - that is worth a 60 inning pitcher, period.

Mike Stanley would be surprised to hear this. Indeed, way back in 1986, the Red Sox made a key addition with Don Baylor via a deal with ???

Agree with all of this - but nothing wrong with trading opportunistically. The younger guys have a better chance of giving this team a chance to contend THIS year than what they let go.

AJ is dumped - good. Trade: Peavy, Buchholz any reliever not nailed to the ground. Keep: Lester, Ortiz, Napoli, Pedroia, kiddos

I am glad the Red Sox knew what the word "sunk cost" means. The money was eaten when the signature was put on the contract. If he is not worth a roster spot, why fake it? Vasquez was clearly the best option on the farm - a guy with his defensive skills can manage to add value even if he is not an improvement over AJ offensively. I doubt anybody was going to trade anything of value for AJ ... he will land somewhere, he is a useful backup. The bad news is Boston burned 2-3 months wasting development reps on low-value veterans in key starting spots. The good news is they corrected both mistakes decisively. Trading Peavy is an obvious next move. Trading everybody in the pen, Uehara included - also has to be investigated, if we are going to midwife a real youth movement.

I know about the curse and lived 18 years of that. But the beauty of 2004 is that we could stop thinking in terms of it. For me, seeing 3 titles in the 10 years after Aaron Boone ... I can die in peace regardless of the 2014 season. No team has been more successful in this century than we have - this season has just been a lot of poor luck as much as anything. I have zero patience (since I lived through the Butch Hobson years, and Buckner and Boone) for whining about 2011 or 2012 ... at least in a sense of "suffering" ... I know suffering, this is certainly not it.

that is reasonable. I do think if the team shows it is not willing to pay top dollar for top talent, the fanbase will be onto them.

5 for 76 is rough - so the question becomes if you are a believer that it will get better. I always look at how overmatched Trot Nixon and Pedroia were at various points. Things will improve.

The dumpster fires in the OF and at C have been much more problematic than SS. Bogaerts is struggling, but he was bound to hit a rough patch. He'll be fine unless he is not the prospect we think he is. Farrell's job is to find wins here - this isn't a rebuild. Good teams get production from the corner spots - the Sox being a whole hog disaster in 3 of the 4 corner positions (aside from a Holt BABIP flash) has been the story. Everything else is distraction.

Since punting 2 years of World Series goodwill is desirable. They still have business to attend to this year - the season has been rough, but the AL has been mediocre outside of 2 teams. I think if this is a 90 loss team you will see some substantial changes and veteran signs. When you gouge your fanbase like the Sox do - it is the least you can do. Prospects will be added smartly - like they have this season. The story of their season is about basically 15 wins of production being (Ellsbury, Victorino, Salty) being replaced by bubkus (Bradley, Pierzynski, misc chum in RF). I think promoting Vasquez to start makes sense - he might be worse than AJ offensively but he at least provides a dimension at a serious restaurant quality level. Betts has so much promise that he could help with the outfield thing. The run prevention has largely been good - the question is whether you think they can realistically catch the teams in front of them. The East is a crapshoot - and so there is some merit in continuing to chase.

He has had a solid season - just working through things now. You are smart to exercise patience. His pattern has been to start slow but figure things out at each level. Just remember how young he is.