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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Public money becomes another consideration. Boston, and the citizens of the area (blessedly) have not been in the business of giving charity to sports owners. While the Red Sox can surely afford to finance a XXX,000,000 dollar paradise, would they want to? Also, usually what drives the need for stadiums (according to Judge Smails) is not seating - it's not season ticket holders, it's not normal gate - it's luxury boxes and club seats. If Fenway is maxed out there, then a new ballpark is at least on their radar.
  2. sk7326
    Porcello is a solid pitcher, and Miley depends on perspective. So 1.5 out of 2 ain't bad. I don't know anyone who was excited that Lester left. The question was after Lester, then what? I DO think the answer to that question was answered pretty satisfactorily. The loss of Lester prevents this offseason from being an "A/A+" undoubtedly. But the result overall was a net plus.
  3. sk7326
    Add Margot and it makes sense. And - Devers and Margot still need to be considered carefully if the right guy appears on the market. Let's put it this way - if the Josh Beckett deal appeared again in 2005, knowing what we knew about Beckett at the time, (25 year old, #1 stuff, some history of #1 performance) guys like Devers and Margot, who are pretty far from MLB consideration might be something I'd have to consider. It'd hurt - but given the mandate to contend every year - it might be something I'd have to mull over. Devers after all has the best ceiling in the system - but he also has not played any baseball against grownups yet.
  4. sk7326
    Funny thing about the Yankees is last year, their pitching was the only reason they won 84 games - the offense was every bit as putrid as the Red Sox. Now the theory that replacing Derek Jeter with a potted plant or that a number of old players will cease to be old is a bit dicey - and that is what the offensive projection is based on. The Yankees had a good offseason improving the bullpen and pitching staff. But offensively it's still really really dicey. My own assertion that making the changes to the lineup they made a year ago while cheeping out on Cano amounted to rearranging deck chairs, and there is not much evidence to change that.
  5. sk7326
    Agreed to a point - it's still about the kid. Betts crushed two levels and made a good dent in a third last season. He created a playing time problem - so we'll see what happens.
  6. sk7326
    The assumption is that there is a fair deal for a catcher obviously. If there are two potential starting catchers the same-ish age, it advances both careers to be separated. And it benefits the org (assuming a fair deal is there) since the resources are being maximized. The discussion would be simpler if the guy in the minors was in single-A or something. You shouldn't do any sort of big league planning betting on a guy in Lowell. Given how close to the bigs Swihart is - at some point the front office will have to bet on itself and hope they made the right decision. It's why Cherington gets the big bucks. As for the assertion about catching prospects moving - the top catching prospect in the minors moved in a deal for a Cy Young pitcher - that happened in the 2012-13 offseason too.
  7. sk7326
    Well, starting with the AL, I'd look at rankings like this: 1. Angels 2. Tigers By 3 it starts to get hazy already. I guess you put the AL favorite at #3, but that could be one of three teams (and I'd put the Yankees and Rays a half sniff behind Boston, Baltimore and Toronto but any of the five could win the division without it being a meaningful surprise). I guess you say the Nats, Cards and Dodgers are definitely better than the Sox and that gets you to #6 without thinking too hard about it. What is notable though is how fragile all of these teams are. Even in the AL rankings, I have noted how little it would take for the Tigers to dive-bomb into 75 win land. The Angels need some things to go right. It's a lot easier for me to identify bad teams (see: Minnesota and Houston) than good ones.
  8. sk7326
    That is said with more confidence than the situation warrants. There was nothing predictable about the division the last 2 years, why start now? They might not win the division, but there is nothing about the Sox and the competition which warrants an absolute anything.
  9. sk7326
    There is plenty of time to adjudicate this. After all Swihart has to keep the leap that he made last year going. Without it, this is all moot. BTW: This applies to Vasquez too, who has proven that there is a major league starter in there - certainly defensively - but the offense has a grade or two to go to get to where you'd want it to be. The bar to clear for an above average catcher is very low - it is a level Vasquez is not at quite yet, but something as simple as making more contact is all it takes to get there. It doesn't make sense to use Swihart as a backup this year clearly - it's burning an option for 150 PAs and limited development. The likely outcome is him staying at AAA. Now is it possible that Vasquez could get hurt and Wally Pip'd? Absolutely. There is time to for this to play itself out, but if both guys develop - the chance both will be in the org in the medium to long term is low, as it should be. If both guys are good, then dealing one of them is the option which makes all of the parties better off at the same time.
  10. sk7326
    I am not sure if his bat plays - at least as well as other replacements. Swihart makes sense starting at C like Posey and Mauer - you play him at C first because of how incredibly valuable a guy like that can be given the steaming pile that represents normal catcher production. The position change makes sense to keep his bat in the lineup and prevent injury - but no need to do it early.
  11. sk7326
    His 2014 fundamentals were right in line with career - the dropoff in either basic or advanced numbers was small. The health issue is considerable.
  12. sk7326
    Scioscia actively cost his teams wins with that decision btw, since there were potted plants who offered more offensive promise than Mathis. Swihart tracks to be - not an adequate defender - but a good to very good defender who might be athletically overqualified to catch. That is a different kettle of fish. I like both guys btw, but if you have two quality young starting catchers, hoarding them is not the best way to make your team better. Book on Cecchini is not written yet, but the move to AAA definitely slowed his momentum. If he is the best 3B prospect in the org, it's because he is close to the bigs. He can probably be a solid 3B for somebody, but he has very much moved (if he was not there already) into the "trade currency" bucket.
  13. sk7326
    Optimism is great ... What is funny is that I think you both overrate the quality of Ellsbury's season and overrate the upside. What is funny about Ells' career is that in his Boston incarnation, there wasn't a lot of in between. He has either been a fairly disposable starter (above replacement level but still mostly empty stolen base calories) or one of the league's best players (2011 he was the AL's best position player and last year he was right there among the "non Trout" guys). Last year tracks pretty well with his "mean" season. He sacrificed some OBP for power - which makes sense given his new full time gig at the lefty paradise - and was still an impactful runner. If there is upside mined for Ellsbury it's probably not that much. For what the Yanks paid him it's a good value (the Yankees have a high $$/win after all) but I question the potential for it to be more. McCann's body was older than his age anyway - I'd expect more like this. He was the best catcher on the market, but the red flags were abound. He'll be better - possibly because he couldn't be worse.
  14. sk7326
    He is - I was not expecting to land a guy like that for a "throw-in" ... but for a team with the Red Sox resources, I think Johnson firmly lands in the "trade currency" pile. For a team with the Red Sox resources and time horizon (in that management wants to contend every year), the number of prospects who aren't is very small.
  15. sk7326
    Shorter haul for a better pitcher who has pitched in more difficult places. The injury is worth noting, although he has been notable injury free aside from that - I don't know the answer there, but he is old and the risks that come with it. If he could be had for a couple of prospects nobody will really miss (Merrero and Johnson qualify, Cecchini I think might, but I admit it is a minority view), I'd be ok with it.
  16. sk7326
    That might be harder to sell - I think Philly would want one likely solid starter. Cecchini fits that bill to me. He's blocked here both ways ... Sandoval at the big league level, and (I know this makes me sound like Dojji, sue me) the possibility of Devers gaining on him quickly.
  17. sk7326
    That is about what I'd be thinking. I'd be willing to talk a higher level arm (Barnes, Johnson - someone closer to the bigs) if Philadelphia wants to help with the contract.
  18. sk7326
    Napoli also only belongs in the list for health reasons. Statistically he was basically the exact player he always was. He even got on base more. Napoli will always look worse than he is because of the particular "feast or famine" nature of his production.
  19. sk7326
    The conversion to LF will be fine for Ramirez - the orientation to the wall will be tricky, but that is the case regardless. Carl Crawford was by all accounts the best defensive LF in the game and he was ho-ho-horrendous in LF at Fenway. Of course, Jim Rice from days of yore was the reverse. The challenge with LF for Ramirez will not be playing it competently - but whether he it is successful in keeping wear off of him. His bat will play at the more offensively demanding position - no doubt. But will they be able to help him get 600 PAs out of it. I think the outfield glut helps in this pursuit - Ramirez can and will (I'd hope) spot Papi against specific lefties I'd think (just to optimize the pieces they have).
  20. sk7326
    And even so - Porcello is only 26. Nothing about his fundamentals were particularly hokey (you know BABIP, K Rate, FIP etc) and at his age you could at least chock it up to genuine improvement too. Same with Holt although his performance is a bit more of a career outlier. (high BABIP, but he has a high BABIP careerwise, granted not a ton of PAs)
  21. sk7326
    What IS interesting this year - is that the team has almost no regression candidates (aside from Betts maybe - although given his age, I might be wrong). There was a large team wide trend of underachievement.
  22. sk7326
    It will be interesting - the offense was genuinely bad last year - worse than Boston's (granted by a run). There have been no real personnel upgrades on that end - and fewer reasons for positive regression. The pitching moves, especially in the back of the bullpen help. Run prevention is what allowed them to squeeze 84 wins of blood out of a rock.
  23. sk7326
    I don't think he's at AAA for long - but the glut of OF needs to be solved, and putting him or Betts down is the simplest move that doesn't impact the 40. And if you want a baseball reason, nothing Castillo has done warrants bumping Betts.
  24. sk7326
    I am pragmatic here - when in doubt, the odd man out is the one with minor league options. Victorino and HanRam are sufficiently risky healthwise that Castillo will get his chance.
  25. sk7326
    Predicted Depth Chart: I have not looked enough at the pitching staff, so I will defer on that. But assuming we carry a 12 man staff ... the 13 regulars C: Vasquez, Hannigan 1B: Napoli, Craig 2B: Pedroia 3B: Sandoval, Holt SS: Bogaerts LF: Ramirez CF: Betts RF: Victorino, Nava DH: Ortiz Obviously much can change ... and I expect it will
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