sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?
sk7326 replied to iortiz's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Oh I see the argument by tradition and hurting delicate flowers by not discussing it. But if you are a team like the Phillies, where Hamels is literally the only reason to go to a game possibly ... and opening day is the only date you know you'll bang the place out - it feels like common sense -
From a perspective of major league value, we should be ok in the short term ... i feel worse for him than I do for the Sox 2015 chances necessarily
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Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?
sk7326 replied to iortiz's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
BTW: worrying about the opening day starter is the stupidest thing fans and teams do. If I were a team, I'd start the ace on the second day anyway (if you are at home) - that's when you actually need the ticket bump of starting the #1 guy. -
I am not trying to downplay the loss - I feel bad about it. But I think in the bigger picture, our failure won't be because of THAT dropoff. (assuming failure)
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Would you date a rival fan? (help with academic research)
sk7326 replied to sportprof101's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yes. As long as she wasn't one to spike the football after games involving our teams that she wins. I'd certainly promise the reverse. -
Here is the thing too - and I know this makes it sound like sour grapes - but we are lamenting the loss of Vasquez' potential, not his demonstrated past performance. There is little to say that we are losing a ton offensively or defensively. It sucks to lose a starter, but it would be like lamenting the loss of Bogaerts at the beginning of last season because you were sad about losing a 20 HR shortstop.
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Without runners to drive in, alas ... the idea that clogging the bases is an actual problem is ummm ... not right
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It also can help provide a natural experiment to one of the biggest research questions about baseball - how much does pitching matter? Obviously a lot - more than any other individual position - but how much credit do you give pitchers for their role in preventing runs. We have a rotation of meh pitchers on some level, but backed by a team that should be pretty good at the fielding game. The latter seemed to be a crucial component of Kansas City's team last year. If the pitchers can keep the ball in play, can the defense help fill in the gap and how much so?
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Defensive metrics can have a blind sport for throwing arms - at the same time a throwing arm in center field is more luxury than mandatory. Bradley's is extraordinary. Betts is nothing special clearly but nothing awful. Tracking balls > throwing into the infield. With young guys you have to rely on scouting outcomes - but nothing that has been written on that end about Castillo says he won't be anything but solid in the outfield. Betts in his limited exposure was fine metrically, and every projection of consequence (Zips-Steamer) has him being above average also. I think the projected optimism for them defensively is warranted. It won't cure all the flaws with the rotation, but it will help the run prevention operation.
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Bogaerts is the only defender who should not project as at least above average positionally (and he could be above average, but he has some catching up to do). Ramirez of course is harder to predict, since a lot of it is just mastering the wall. Crawford was the league's best defensive LF, and was a catastrophe in Boston (and now back to fine in LA). If Victorino is healthy, right field is clearly elite - and if it's Castillo, the early evidence is promising. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-2015-al-east-preview-red-sox-blue-jays-orioles-rays-yankees/ Now with Vasquez out, the framing and throwing might go down a bit - but the larger point still holds. The team is well equipped to catch the ball, if the pitchers keep it in the yard.
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No, although the above average to excellent defense at 7 of the 8 positions does.
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I expect that is the "ideal path". Given they are starting Swihart in AAA, they had plans for him to potentially get to the Show for some time. They have enough catching depth not to rush it. And - to be fair - in losing Vasquez we lost a guy who had a lot of promise, but not a guy who was a sure thing stud either. The idea that Hanigan and Quintero as a two fisted solution is not a huge dropoff from Vasquez is not unreasonable. And Swihart also has an above average-elite defensive projection as well. The pitch framing is something that AAA will help evolve (and where much of Vasquez' promise as), but in terms of throwing arm and athletic ability - there is not a lot lost there. But yeah, you want to give him time to make his developmental targets.
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Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?
sk7326 replied to iortiz's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think that was a non-issue with regards to Lester. What is clear is that they let Lester go because they think there are better options in trade. -
1. It's not even a death sentence for pitchers 2. He's not a pitcher. He is probably gone for this year but next year will be fine. I feel bad for him that he might get Wally Pip'd because of this.
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Our catcher depth does show here. I think Hanigan-Quintero makes sense if this injury is a matter of "weeks" or less. If this is something like a UCL injury and Swihart continues to show what he has shown recently - he should be in the Show.
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With Petey the question with his decline the last two years is how much decline is left. Honestly though, as long as he can still make a lot of contact and field his position at approximately his current level, there is no real near term reason to look to replace him. Betts is an entirely qualified 2B, but if he is established at CF that might be the more valuable spot. That said, could I see a future in three years of Betts at 2B and Margot in CF? Why not? But it's not a "current problem" or "elephant in the room".
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Exposed? It shows it's pretty good. They actually have a real contingency plan! Hanigan is perfectly fine. The temptation is whether to move Swihart up immediately. How many teams can actually put a tolerable starter out there with a guy like Vasquez out? I feel worse for Vasquez himself who could get Wally Pip'd for forces out of his control.
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Dude, Pedroia is STILL A 4-win player despite his hand problems. He doesn't have to hit any better than this as long as he still picks it with the same quality.
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Pedroia is still a GREAT defensive player - so much so that he is still a very good starter despite the bat sagging. One of the funny things about life is when writers do the right thing for the wrong reasons. In 2008, they voted Pedroia MVP for scrappy mcscraperson reasons most likely, because his counting stats weren't amazing. But when you dig deeper, add positional value and defense - and Pedroia had a truly elite season, but perhaps not in a way that the average BBWAA member understood. Pedroia doesn't have to be the 2008 model to be well above average. Moving Betts to 2B could be a future step, but not to solve the outfield problem. He is the best CF choice by far right now and that should stay.
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The Lackey deal I did not like, although there is at least a chance the Sox got more assets from the deal, but not with a ton of certainty. Pitching and defense will win ultimately - but balance matters too. The Sox should be able to hit. And the team profiles to be somewhere between above average to legitimately very good-excellent defensively. (shortstop is the only place where they might be below average, and that might not even be true) Assuming Ramirez does not let the Wall psyche him out the way Crawford did, he will be fine in LF - and with that in place, the outfield has a chance to be elite defensively.
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Agreed. I had no problem with Farrell backing the veteran coming into camp. Nobody will hold him to it, and easier clubhouse politics. I'd be stunned if Vic held on. Weirdly the choice to abandon switch-hitting will help him. As much as he wants to say he did it for health reasons, he had not been a good lefthanded hitter for years.
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I do think if Victorino gets hurt as the odd man out ... there should be enough ABs between 1B, LF, and DH that Craig can get 300 PAs in at least. You figure that against certain LHPs, Hanley could take a "day or rest" at DH and get Craig in at LF.
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There is a lot of weird revisionism I read about Nap's lost season last year. When in fact he was one of the few Red Sox players who actually was every bit the player he was in 2013. There is something about a guy who doesn't put the ball in play a lot that makes him seem worse than he actually is.
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Here is the thing - if Craig is just 75% of the 2013 version, his contract is damn near a heist. It is one of the good reasons the Sox acquired him. It does not take much for that contract to become a very attractive trade piece.
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I think it's POSSIBLE that Nava is the odd man out. But Nava makes much more sense to carry as a 4th outfielder than Castillo. I don't think any fan or chat show caller is wondering why Castillo is not playing ahead of Betts, so the PR pressure is not really there. There is plenty of PR cover to start Castillo in Pawtucket. He has just not played a lot of baseball - and his talent is super exciting but it'd be nice for him to face some guys who are trying to get him out for real. Castillo tag teaming with Victorino and providing some defensive depth is a sensible way to go too - but I think having Nava on the big league roster makes more sense in the near term. The other option is to carry 11 pitchers, but I don't think that is happening immediately.