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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Breathe. Here is the basic bet they made. A durable rotation with some measure of youth + a good offense + a good defense + a good bullpen = a team good enough to stay near the top of the table while the starting pitching market reveals itself. Considering that the Red Sox in such a pitiful 2014 season did not actually truly fall out of the race until the all-star break, this seems like a safe bet (health caveat noted) What is unfortunate for the Sox is how good the baseball economics are. The days of a Montreal team needing to deal an incumbent Cy Young award winner after the first of his "Koufax years" for monetary reasons is more or less dead. You take that and add the second wildcard spot - and most teams have to (because of fan expectations) start the season as if there is a Kansas City Royals run in them. If the team gives management the chance to add another guy - they will. Everything they have done to this point is set up to do so.
  2. sk7326
    Because people shouldn't get worked up about guys getting their work in against the Crash Davis' of the future.
  3. sk7326
    The latter is true, but since base stealing is not really a major part of the attack for most teams - the net effect is small. Teams run more now than in the early part of the decade, but the importance of probability has been underlined to such a degree that teams don't really run that much compared to days of yore regardless. Pitch framing depends on the pitcher quality - stop the presses. But there are just more chances to materially impact the game with pitch framing, many more pitches.
  4. sk7326
    That said, baserunner caught stealing has quite a bit to do with the overall baserunner holding concept. The Red Sox for years had been indifferent - the basic idea, get the guy at the plate guy first and foremost.
  5. sk7326
    It's admirable - and certainly simply appealing to pundit's authority is not good. I do caution though that considering minor league stat lines is tricky without considering age and what the developmental goals were.
  6. sk7326
    Rag arm was unfortunate with Crisp, but it's also one trait that is minor for CFs - you don't usually have cannons there anyway. With him it's interesting - it's one of those cases where because he was a mild disappointment compared to the hype in Boston, he is reflected on poorly. But really you look at what he is now - that is a pretty good player. Good base stealer, has some pop, great range in CF.
  7. sk7326
    Swihart if he arrives in Boston in any capacity at all in 2015 would have arrived there a full two years younger than Varitek. That matters a great deal in the view of the numbers.
  8. sk7326
    I think the race discussion as it were was about the former owner - that stuff certainly does not resonate now. Pedro and Papi more or less fixed that for good. I think you are confusing topics here. There was significant evidence of a self-imposed quota on non-white players in Yawkey's time. As far as JBJ goes - he kept getting chances because he was a special defensive player, and he was not going to learn anything at AAA - he had shown he could hit minor league pitching after all. But as long as he kept thinking he needed to hit homeruns, his approach was fatally infected.
  9. sk7326
    Agreed sort of - although the yawning gap in time between Jackie Robinson and Pumpsie Green is baseball too. It's a part of the Red Sox legacy (under Yawkey) and it materially affected the ability to put championship teams out there. As a consequence I suppose, it made the Tiant stars and the Pedro ones such atypically joyous events.
  10. sk7326
    I don't think anyone is actually arguing this point. Lavarnway is something of a false comparison. The view of most of the industry was that Lavarnway couldn't catch - but was worth trying there because if he could, with the bat that is potentially an All-Star. As it turned out his failure was because of both factors at the same time - 1) he couldn't catch and 2) his bat did not really play anywhere else that he COULD play. The projection from those who rate Swihart so highly is that he absolutely can catch - at a very high level. This is not trading Vasquez for Lavarnway. The idea would be that Swihart's bat AND glove would be well above average major league catcher level. Now, if his bat turns out even better than that, there will be pressure in the future to reduce his catcher workload so he can get his bat in the lineup 20-30 more times. But that is a future "good" problem to have - and you can find a Ryan Hanigan clone to take up that slack if it comes to that.
  11. sk7326
    Vasquez is probably a 70 or 80 glove. His replacements are more like 60 or 70. Swihart if he comes up scouts as a 60 or 70 glove too. That could cost the sox a win or two tops. That is a drop off but might be more than offset by say us replacing our 2014 third baseman with an actual breathing human.
  12. sk7326
    I think veteran ballplayers do not believe a guy should be supplanted due to injury. They want the guy to lose the gig on the field. I think that is all Farrell was doing was backing up the incumbents. Farrell does not want to hurt the guy's trade value or undercut him in front of his mates. I take what gets said with a giant block of salt here.
  13. sk7326
    Keith Law's writeups on Sox in updated top 50 http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/3754?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_marchtop50prospectsupdate
  14. sk7326
    Sports is a silly reason not to love somebody. So she is a Yankee fan. I am sure I have poor taste in aspects of my life also.
  15. sk7326
    Hard to regulate work in the pen ... although the idea of stuff playing up is not unreasonable
  16. sk7326
    Tom Yawkey's relationship with black players was ... flawed
  17. sk7326
    Oh I see the argument by tradition and hurting delicate flowers by not discussing it. But if you are a team like the Phillies, where Hamels is literally the only reason to go to a game possibly ... and opening day is the only date you know you'll bang the place out - it feels like common sense
  18. sk7326
    From a perspective of major league value, we should be ok in the short term ... i feel worse for him than I do for the Sox 2015 chances necessarily
  19. sk7326
    BTW: worrying about the opening day starter is the stupidest thing fans and teams do. If I were a team, I'd start the ace on the second day anyway (if you are at home) - that's when you actually need the ticket bump of starting the #1 guy.
  20. sk7326
    I am not trying to downplay the loss - I feel bad about it. But I think in the bigger picture, our failure won't be because of THAT dropoff. (assuming failure)
  21. sk7326
    Yes. As long as she wasn't one to spike the football after games involving our teams that she wins. I'd certainly promise the reverse.
  22. sk7326
    Here is the thing too - and I know this makes it sound like sour grapes - but we are lamenting the loss of Vasquez' potential, not his demonstrated past performance. There is little to say that we are losing a ton offensively or defensively. It sucks to lose a starter, but it would be like lamenting the loss of Bogaerts at the beginning of last season because you were sad about losing a 20 HR shortstop.
  23. sk7326
    Without runners to drive in, alas ... the idea that clogging the bases is an actual problem is ummm ... not right
  24. sk7326
    It also can help provide a natural experiment to one of the biggest research questions about baseball - how much does pitching matter? Obviously a lot - more than any other individual position - but how much credit do you give pitchers for their role in preventing runs. We have a rotation of meh pitchers on some level, but backed by a team that should be pretty good at the fielding game. The latter seemed to be a crucial component of Kansas City's team last year. If the pitchers can keep the ball in play, can the defense help fill in the gap and how much so?
  25. sk7326
    Defensive metrics can have a blind sport for throwing arms - at the same time a throwing arm in center field is more luxury than mandatory. Bradley's is extraordinary. Betts is nothing special clearly but nothing awful. Tracking balls > throwing into the infield. With young guys you have to rely on scouting outcomes - but nothing that has been written on that end about Castillo says he won't be anything but solid in the outfield. Betts in his limited exposure was fine metrically, and every projection of consequence (Zips-Steamer) has him being above average also. I think the projected optimism for them defensively is warranted. It won't cure all the flaws with the rotation, but it will help the run prevention operation.
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