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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    I agree that Castillo's value is still speculative. But the threshhold to be a worthwhile guy at that price is not that high. I expect he will be in Boston though regardless.
  2. sk7326
    It's fun to me. And seriously, if there was one time where it was earned, THAT was it.
  3. sk7326
    Starters ERA is like 4.20. Cueto's stuff is a real concern, although he did a nice job last night. That said, Astros surprisingly did not make him work that hard ... they are a crazy strikeout team, but usually a good walk one, and was not the case last night. If you believe in inexperience in a big game, last night was evidence. I think the 2003 Sox in terms of standard deviations above the league average were the best of the lot - only other two this century above it were 2007 Yanks and this year's Toronto team.
  4. sk7326
    Toronto is the best team in the field given current circumstances (since the Cards won all those games but had so many injuries coming down the stretch). Even if they lost, that was the case ... baseball is funny like that. Best team loses in the tournament all the time - just how the cookie crumbles in baseball (as opposed to the NBA). ALCS will be fun ... the big question is whether the Royals lousy starting rotation can hold off that ridiculous lineup (one can argue as good as anything we've seen since the 2003-4 Red Sox) enough for the Royals other edges to kick in. (their defense, their bullpen, their ability to make contact) Also, there is the matter of the tactical managing, where Gibbons seems to be a clear plus over Yost.
  5. sk7326
    Oh I don't think so. They have either one or two true aces (depending on how you look at it), and a rotation which underachieved but does not lack ability. They have one of the league's top 3 position players (and another who'd crack a reasonable Top 20, injury problems granted). Their bullpen is a disgrace, and their manager in 2014 was a comically bad continuous source of tactical mistakes. Between working the bullpen and replacing the manager with somebody minimally competent, they should be back in the hunt.
  6. sk7326
    What is clear is that playing left in Fenway does not seem to correlate with being a good athlete, or even being a good outfielder in general. I just look at the absolute train wreck Carl Crawford was there, which made no sense at all. By contrast, Manny - who was a horrendous outfielder in general, seemed to know what he was doing.
  7. sk7326
    That is very possible - now Benintendi cannot be dealt yet (well, except as a PTBNL). But Castillo's salary is not a drag if he builds on the 2nd half of last season. He's not that far away from being a "12 million" player in 2015/16 baseball dollars.
  8. sk7326
    Kinsler was 31 and coming off of a down season - really it was a trash for trash deal at the time. Clearly it worked out for Detroit - Kinsler has managed to remain solid in years that you'd expect a decline. Castillo could be moved as part of a deal but not as a centerpiece. His salary is actually really fair for the guy he probably should be - not a steal, but not a ripoff. But it would be hard to expect someone to swallow the deal when a team doesn't have to. Clearly the market for Ramirez will be explored ... I do think there could be a small market for him, because the deal is pricey, but not long ... and there is some reachable upside there. Teams with a corner infield opening will at least kick the tires.
  9. sk7326
    Last year first one since his return from TJ where he was below 150 IP. So the other two factors are more relevant. And the price while high could be mitigated by the single year of control. Extending a 27 year old is much more palatable. Really any such trade would test how stupid and reactionary the Nats are. A lot of their ills will be cured by a managerial change (not all, but it is significant) - the potential upgrade from Matt Williams to even an Alex Cora would be noticeable.
  10. sk7326
    Maybe. I'd be really curious about Strasburg though. There have been injury issues - and perhaps the Nationals might be ready to listen on him. It would be a massive overreaction, but would not be a stunning one. I mean their season was basically a mix of shaky back of the rotation starting, a bad bullpen and a horrific manager.
  11. sk7326
    I like him, but had filtered him out of the thought process
  12. sk7326
    I did not include Greinke since I think there is a .000000000001% chance he is not back in LA next season.
  13. sk7326
    Price is probably the first option in that he is good and has been good in the AL East. If you give him 7 years, he should be excellent for at least 3 of them and good for a couple more. A trade makes more sense just because there are more targets and more control. Chris Sale is an obvious one ... Matt Harvey might be another, although I'd be surprised if the Mets were that obtuse ... Felix Hernandez would be another interesting one (shorter hitch, but still 3-4 years of control) if you think that his dropoff this year is curable - and DiPoto knowing the Sox brain trust might help there. There might even be a legitimate conversation to be had surrounding Strasburg (given the bloodletting in Nats-land). As cp noted, Sox have so many guys who should (and need to honestly) be moved for career development that they can stock many trades. Of the above, Sale clearly is the only one I'd want to trade one of the "untouchables" for.
  14. sk7326
    Fielder in 2013 was a pretty good comp for Hanley - atrocious defensively (at a much easier position!) but hit well enough to be a solid (if overpaid) player. Hanley of course did not hit after his left shoulder got hurt and that made his total package ho-ho-horrendous. Really if Hanley gets his stroke back, he can probably exceed Prince's total package as a 1B. Dombrowski managed to trade one bloated contract for another - although in both Kinsler and Fielder's cases the players with the bloated contracts were actually decent. Fielder has had a nice bounceback this year ... which is not that surprising (a lot of his bad 2013 was just sheer bad luck on batted balls).
  15. sk7326
    Good athletes who have shown the ability to learn and grow are always good bets at his age.
  16. sk7326
    Really, Miley is going to be part of the rotation solution, and that is fine. Free agency will be a tricky place to find difference making starting pitching. Price is the one guy, and he's 29 but will force you to buy a number of decline years (and surrender a pick). Is that worth it? You can go either way there. The other sexy names on the starter list have major question marks - is Jordan Zimmermann any good really, and is Cueto's arm going to remain attached to his body. I actually like the idea of signing Lackey. Durable, knows Boston. Similary Mark Buehrle is useful on a short deal (Dan Haren less so, but still). If you want to take a short money flyer (with the modest expectations that come with it), could do a lot worse than Cliff Lee.
  17. sk7326
    Throwing for the catcher is a complicated business since the base-stealing apparatus is a team effort. Historically the Red Sox had not made it much of a priority - which is not crazy, since getting the batter out solves most problems. That dampened Varitek's stats on that area. Clearly this year the pitch framing loss of Vasquez was significant ... He and Ross were excellent pitch framers who saved runs, while this year Swihart was a slight minus there (Hanigan was a plus, Leon was worse). At the same time, Swihart's growth curve this year was striking. If he makes the sort of improvement you expect from young players who have shown the ability to improve already - he's the clear starter entering next season and a solid likelihood of being a Top 10 catcher.
  18. sk7326
    Defense is lousy - and the management does not want to play more "trap" even though that's probably the only way the team can compete ... Julien should be axed out of mercy Saddest thing of them all is the realization that the B's essentially traded Phil Kessel for Loui Eriksson when all the carnage is added up.
  19. sk7326
    LOL - honestly Yankees don't bother me anymore. Just one of 29 other ones we are trying to beat.
  20. sk7326
    They are interesting cases - both places where fWAR and bWAR disagree violently ... neither Chen nor Gallardo were especially good in fielding independent dimensions. Gallardo's strikeout rate has been plummeting in particular. Chen's strikeout rate is more in Miley's area - okay but nothing special, with a much more pronounced flyball tendency. Of the two Gallardo is a more sensible choice just because he has been a very good starter before some real swing and miss in him.
  21. sk7326
    Neither Chen nor Gallardo based on this past year's form, are any better than Miley. Better off giving Owens a regular gig than that.
  22. sk7326
    Pitching is key. But given the Yankees scored the 2nd most runs in the AL, and 8th in team ERA it is less convincing. (3rd in offensive WAR). Indeed this year 5 of the Top 7 offensive teams made the playoffs while two below median pitching staffs (Yankees and Rangers) got in. Yankees pitching though was pretty good - and hurt by a pretty lousy defense. Teams have won by slugging around "enough" pitching - happens all the time. Truly one dimensional teams are rare, whatever the shape.
  23. sk7326
    What's the stress? The good stuff is not going anywhere and the bad stuff can only get better really ...
  24. sk7326
    Oh I am not betting anything super important on Espinoza - but it is not the sort of ceiling you just give away either. Youngest player in Greenville by 13 months, and that is only because he is too young for the AFL
  25. sk7326
    The stats are good for looking at the bigs - without a doubt, both the Sox and elsewhere. Using them on minor leagues is much dicier - since not every player or team has the same goals. And that does not even account for more basic things (like the prevalence of launching pads in the PCL - for instance Syndegaard's superficial numbers were lousy last year, but his quality was taken as a given).
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