marklmw

Well I was off on the annual % rate increase used for WAR. I also reduced Cano at 5% per year. Can still have 2-3 high performance years in him

Corey Hart is a real family man ... he has 4 kids and he said in an interview that where the team has spring training will factor into his decision. He lives in Arizona ... this hurts Bostons chances should he be true to his word and the words reported are true.

Using an initial WAR of 7.5% for Cano's 2014 season and reducing his WAR by 5% per season his WAR in Season 10 will be 4.73. Increasing the Value of WAR at factoring a 2% annual increase the WAR value grows to 5.96M in year 10. What does this mean for Cano ... his 10 year value comes out to be: $324M

Thanks ... let me work on it then. I will use a 2% increase

Even if we lower Cano's WAR by .5 - 1.0 year year he will still justify his contract as long as WAR values continue to rise at 10% per year. Hell, he might justify it at 5% annual increases. Maybe I am in the wrong profession.

You are correct that for 300M 10 year contract Cano would have to produce an average WAR of 6. Cano could realistically put up a WAR of 7-8 over the next 3 seasons ... should he have the drive and dedication to the game. We also have to consider that a unit of WAR will increase in value each year going forward. What if a unit of WAR increases by 10% per year over the next 10 years. I think it is safe to assume that player salaries will continue to grow at a 10% rate. Of course we can argue that assumption as well. So lets break it down by year. I am just playing devils advocate here. I would never give this contract to Cano. Year Season WAR WARV Value CUM Value 1 2014 8 5M 40M 40M 2 2015 7.5 5.5M 41.25M 81.25M 3 2016 7.0 6.06M 42.35M 123.60M 4 2017 6.5 6.67M 43.33M 166.99M 5 2018 6.0 7.34M 44.02M 211.01M 6 2019 5.5 8.07M 44.41M 255.42M 7 2020 5.0 8.88M 44.39M 299.81M 8 2021 4.5 9.77M 43.96M 343.77M 9 2022 4.0 10.72M 42,87M 386.64M 10 2023 3.5 11.79M 41.27M 427.91M You see Hal Steinbrener we are actually giving you a home town discount of about 130M. almost 1/3rd off Cano's true value.

This number must apply to FA's only. There are many players under club control with WAR's of 3 who obviously are not making 15M per.

I know that Fred is going to go nutts should the Sox loose Napoli but you just never know the outcome. Nap's could get injured 1/3 of the way into the 2014 season. Carp or Hart or Nava can come back and kill it. Not worth losing sleep over.

Anyway ... we got our Championship ... I think that Hart if healthy again will be a monster in Fenway. Also, the kid we draft with our Napoli compensation pick is going to be a future Hall Of Famer. How do you like those apples?

Is 1 point of WAR really worth 5M?

Wow ... Jung ... did you ever think in a million years that one day you would be defending Boras on a Sox Forum?

Based on Corey Harts Medical Report maybe Boston will offer him a multi- year deal with x % guaranteed. Anyway it looks like Boston would have been smart to keep the original contract with Napoli in place to begin with. You just never know how things will turn out.

The Sox will still pick-up a compensation pick between the 1st and 2nd round.

UN ... when my wife comes home from a day of shopping and begins to show me all the things she has bought she always tells be what the original price was on the article of clothing ... with Cano it is no different. If you look at WAR as a method of valuing a player and should each unit of WAR be worth 5M then you can almost justify the 300M number for Cano as long as he stays healthy. Like A-rod the team buy insurance to cover such a contract ... it is another cost but I do not think that it counts towards the luxury tax.

After looking at MLB catchers it does seem that the McCann deal to the Yankees was a pretty dam good move. Sure they may have overpaid a little but only marginally based on the needs of the team and how the Stadium is built for left handed hitters. Catchers who can hit and fields are very rare indeed. Boston can only hope that Vasquez continues to develop offensively as he is a very valuable commodity.

Amen UN ... Hanigan seems to be the best option.

Catchers are hard to analyze for sure. Lucroy is tops at receiving the ball but his caught stealing rate is dismal. Are there no more Molina's to be found

I will guess that -9.2 > +7.3 when you are discussing defense. You are correct that Santana can eventually transition to 1B in 4 years when Nap's is gone. I just cannot bear to watch Salty next season turn pitches that are strikes in the Amica strike zone into balls. It's bad enough that he never turns borderline pitches into strikes. I guess you know that I pitched a little in my younger days.

I thought I had a twin brother some place

I would not make that deal. Santana is not much of a defensive upgrade from Salty. Doubront is on the edge of a break-out.

SFF ... Only Hanigan himself will be as happy as you should the Sox acquire him.

That would be nice UN.

That is a good point ... never thought of that ... they will only have to forfeit the pics they have that year ... so 4 FA signings you are only forfeiting your first 4 picks for that year .. rounds 1-4?

I guess it has yet to be seen how well Bogaerts does with the glove. All things being equal 2 players with similar defensive skills will be decided on who the better offensive player is.