FredLynn

Define: "pans out"

More dung for the heap.

I think that this team can COMPETE for a playoff spot without adding personnel. They may or may not make it; its 50-50 IMO. Competing for a ring would be a stretch. If everything falls right we should be in the postseason, briefly, and by "everything" I mean that our three SP remain healthy. If we see much of the dregs this year, we have no chance.

For the record, I don't think surgery is the answer to degenerative disc disease. I remember reading a study that people who had surgery for it did no better than those who underwent conservative treatment (ie, no surgery). I know many people who had surgery for this who got much worse after the procedure. There is a saying: "Surgeons might be able to help, but the certainly are capable of screwing things up"...or something to that effect. Not that this has anything to do with the Sox getting Oswalt....

It seems pretty clear to me that the Red Sox will, unfortunately, be over the cap again. That will cramp the team next year too. But since they will be over the cap there is absolutely no reason they should not offer Oswalt what he wants to play here. It could be more than if he played elsewhere, but everyone has their price. Just plain dumb, getting rid of Scutaro then failing to address our most blatant need.

I thought Wakefield was supposed to make a decision about that this past weekend (?). Retirement would be the most graceful thing to do, but both have commented on their desire to play more baseball. Seems the only people on earth who don't think they are finished are Wakefield and Varitek.

I agree with you: those two has-beens should have been handed their walking papers. Now we are getting into this ambiguous gray area where they will need to be discharged and disgraced after failing to make the club. Its not being handled properly.

I disagree. If he plays like s***, s*** is exactly what everyone will give him.

Ortiz agreed to this figure. Once you agree to a figure the negotiations are over. I think will be fine now. The key is that this is for just one year, after which he must leave.

http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/ll25/ArwingAce21/beating-a-dead-horse.gif

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v214/willysmb44/beatingA_DeadHorse.gif

Melancon is supposed to be the setup man. I see the SP problem is that right off the bat we are penciling in our #6 guy as our #5 guy. When the inevitable injuries occur, we then have to go to our #7 and 8 guys. And they are horrible. But the main issue is, as you mentioned, that our depth is now starting as a #5.

There is lots of talk about our #5 SP coming from recent acquisitions and some of us have pointed out just how bad they really are. I thought it would be useful to present some statistics the outline just how aweful these guys really are. Here are the facts: Carlos Silva: Career ERA: 4.68. Last AL team was the Mariners (08, 09); had ERA there of 6.81 John Maine: Career ERA: 4.35. Last AL team (Orioles) had ERA of 6.60. ERA last year: 6.13 Justin Germano: Career ERA: 5.02. Last year in Cleveland had ERA of 5.68 Aaron Cooke: Career ERA: 4.53. Last year had an ERA of 6.03 (Rockies). No AL experience Vicente Padilla: Career ERA: 4.31. Last AL team (Rangers, 4 years) ERA: 4.90. Is a nut case. Folks, this is not a group of pitchers that should inspire confidence. If they have to pitch with any regularity, we could be clamoring for Matsusaka or Miller or even Wakefield. They are really really bad, even for #5 or 6 SP.

Strange how the entire outlook would change so much if we had a competent #4 SP. Oswalt comes in and we don't have to use our first "depth option" as a SP. I think we could withstand an injury if the basic rotation was solid to start with.

You thought I was going to let this go? First off, Bard, even if he has an ERA of 4.00, isn't going to pitch 180 innings+. How many innings could he pitch? Maybe 120 max? So we are getting about .6 of the year from him (a year I am counting as 200 IP from a SP). Furthermore, remember that we didn't add Bard to the team; he was already here. So adding him to the rotation will most likely improve it, but it also detracts from the quality of the bullpen. Remember: for the vast majority of the season he was the most effective relief pitcher we had in the pen, until he tired out at the end. Second, have you looked at our #5 SP recently? They all STINK. Right now, I would be thrilled if they could have an ERA of 5. I don't see that happening in the ALE. Furthermore, assuming that Lester/Beckett/Buchholtz will all remain healthy all year, or even most of it, is a mistake. We are, most likely, going to be seeing a lot of Padilla, Cooke, Germano, and the like in the 5th and 6th positions this year. Looking at it objectively, all we have done is replaced Papelbon with Melancon and Bailey. Thats really not much of a change. And we also have Jenks to look forward to, and its also likely that Albers will return to his career norms that include a career ERA of over 5. We also have Doubront and Bowden, two guys who have shown us nothing so far. I agree that the offense will continue to be effective, but they were never the problem. Our offense was #1 in OPS and runs scored last year, and we didn't make the playoffs. Its about the PITCHING, and I don't see them as an improved staff right now. I see us as a 90 win team this year..give or take a game or two.

More specifically, the Cards have Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia, Lohse, and Westbrook as their starting five. Wainwright and Carpenter are aces; Garcia is pretty good too (career ERA 3.27), and the last two are in the final year of their contract. They do not NEED Oswalt at all, so why pay him $7M or so to wait for an injury. The best FIT is with the Red Sox, if he will pitch here.