FredLynn

Don't make it here often. And just stating the obvious. Gotta fire the manager: that will get their attention

This team is so screwed....really screwed. So many problems. Crawford cannot handle the pressure of Boston; Youkilis is probably still hurt from last year; Gonzalez is on a pace to hit SIX HRs; Varitek was hitting .111 last I heard, lower than most pitchers. The only way to fix this team is to do something drastic to get their attention, and I think they have to fire Francona and get a disciplinarian in there.

I am not seeing the numerical values for average velocity here; probably blind. He did well in 09, but not as good as 07. I think his decline began in 07 (tough year to repeat) and the bottom fell out in 2010. Do you have his average velocity in 10 handy? Also, note the small difference in velocity range in 2010 compared to 07. If you change speeds on hitters it makes life a lot easier. For a year now he hasn't shown evidence of pitching well; hopefully its forthcoming in April. Edit: never mind. Got it. Average FB iin 2010 was 93.5, down a little over a mph from 07. In addition, the graph for 2010 shows that he rarely cranked it up to over 95 as opposed to 07.

Another interesting graph on Beckett showing his HR/9 going up annually since 2007. There is really no objective evidence that Beckett can turn it around. I sure hope he does, but as yet I don't see it happening. Whatever is ailing him is still ailing him. Maybe Curt Young can help him; he sure did a great job in Oakland. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=510&position=P&page=4&type=full

Try this graph for a better visual: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=510&position=P&pitch=FA This clearly shows that in 2007, his only excellent year on the team, his fastball was pretty regularly 95 to 95+. Look at the trend downwards over the years. Also, look at the difference in velocity range; everything he threw in 2010 was in a pretty narrow range. It doesn't take much of a loss of velocity to morph from a power pitcher into something less than that. If he throws at 93 there is much less room for error. I haven't seen fangraphs for ST yet. As the season progresses more data will be available.

And Papelbon will be traded. Makes too much sense to do otherwise.

There is no evidence that Beckett has turned it around. He has lost a couple of mph off his fastball, and according to fangraphs, his pitches have also lost a good deal of movement. Furthermore, he has been pitching poorly for a year now. Here is the evidence of decreased movement of his pitches. Compare 2007 to 2010; see how many more of his pitches in 2010 didn't move at all vertically or horizontally compared with 07. You can also see that he has lost a couple of MPH off his fastball here: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=510&position=P&season=2010&date=0&dh=0 Here is an article (from about a month ago or so) that implies that his chances of turning it around are not good: The historical significance of Beckett’s 2010 John Tomase In today’s Herald we examined the production of pitchers in their 30s after they had seasons as poor as Josh Beckett’s 2010 (6-6, 5.78). The expectation had been that history would be littered with good pitchers who had similarly down years but bounced back to regain their prior form. Except it didn’t happen that way at all. Here’s a link to the baseball-reference chart showing the 69 seasons where a pitcher in his 30s compiled an ERA of 5.75 or higher in at least 125 innings pitched. In only three cases did the pitcher recover to post so much as one season on par with his prior performance: Darryl Kile, Tim Belcher, and Livan Hernandez. Otherwise, the results were universally horrible, and basically claimed the careers of some pretty good pitchers — Jack Morris, David Cone and Dave Stewart, to name three. Of course, those pitchers — as well as many others on the list — were in their late 30s and at the end of their careers anyway. Beckett’s down year came at age 30, when there should be plenty of time to return to his All-Star self. Except the numbers don’t bear that out either. Of the 18 pitchers on the list to have their down year at age 30, only Kile rebounded thereafter. Six-time 20-game winner Wes Ferrell averaged 19-13 with a 3.86 ERA from 1929-1937 with the Guardians and Red Sox. Then he went 15-10 with a 6.28 ERA at age 30 and only won three games the rest of his career. Or there’s Jaime Navarro. While never anywhere near as good as Beckett, he was pretty decent for a time. He won 17 games in 1992 with the Brewers and his 3.28 ERA ranked 10th in the NL in 1995. At age 29 in 1996, he went 15-12 with a 3.92 ERA for the Cubs and tossed 236.2 innings. He was considered solid enough to earn $5 million a year from the White Sox in free agency, but during three years on the other side of Chicago, his ERA never dropped below 5.79 and he lost 43 games. How does this relate to Beckett? Maybe not at all. Few pitchers of his pedigree have ever struggled so mightily during a season in their prime, and it might prove to be the aberration in an otherwise stellar five years. But it’s worth noting that history is not on his side.

I am not sure what Showalter said that wasn't true. Epstein acknowledged as much-that is much tougher to manage when you have a lot less money to work with. Showalter also said that Jeter "ticks him off" by jumping back from so many pitches to try to influence the balls and strikes calls by the umpires. While Jeter does irritate some with the way he plays, he plays the game right- to win, and I respect that. IMO Showalter was just stating the truth, as much as some of us would not like to hear it. It is the fact of his saying these things out loud that are usually just understood that is putting him under fire. Here is what Theo said: “It’s easy to get defensive when people attribute a lot of our success to our payroll,’’ Epstein told Borges. “To a degree they’re right, but it’s still a challenge. It’s definitely easier the more money you have

Matt Albers Still In Mix For Red Sox By Ben Nicholson-Smith [March 23 at 4:38pm CST] 4:38pm: Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that the team has not released Albers (Twitter link). He remains in the mix for a job in Boston's bullpen.

Okajima has options left, but they require his approval to be sent down. I doubt he would go to Pawtucket. He would probably prefer to find work elsewhere-not that thats a bad thing. http://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

There was an analysis posted on another Sox board regarding pitchers who pitched very well for one year (eg: Beckett in 2007) and then had an off year or two and their chances of coming back to excel again. As it turns out, those pitchers are few and far between. I think Greg Maddux was on the list, but I can't recall who else was there. The numbers do not favor Beckett coming back and pitching well enough to justify his roughly $16M/yr salary for four years. He has also lost velocity off his fastball, and it seems to have straightened out somewhat over the years. Unfortunately, he is the key to our rotation this year. Lester and Bucky are going to be good, though probably not as good as last year. Lackey will not change much, most likely, and DiceK is a good #5 SP, ie, he sucks and whatever we get out of him is gravy. The Yankees starting rotation once you get past CC, however, is a joke.

Regarding Wakeflood: his ERA was over 5 last season and its over 7 this spring training. Its time for Timmy to hang up the horseshoes. He should not be allowed to take up a valuable roster spot and replace someone who can actually pitch.

He had his labrum "cleaned up". The labrum is the cartilage that comprises the socket of the ball and socket joint that makes up the shoulder. Its a weird joint, unstable mechanically unless the musculature around it (=the "rotator cuff") is strong. It would looks sort of like a volleyball articulating with a tea saucer. Too shallow; too big a ball. The hip also has a labrum, and thats what screwed up Mike Lowell. Cartilage in the body doesn't grow back, unfortunately. Thats why so many people need joint replacements. The injured shoulder in Gonzalez's case is in his non-throwing arm; however, when they go mucking around with cartilage, the possibility for permanently screwing things up is very real. Yes, I am a doctor.

His legal last name was "Abaladildo"; for obvious reasons he had it changed

The Giants have hit a bit of a skid lately. With Lester and Buchholtz going in this series, we have a decent chance of taking two of three and coming home 3-3 for the roadtrip, which has to be viewed as a success. I will be there for Sunday's game, Lincecum vs Lester. Should be a great game.

Pretty bigoted post there...what does one have to do to get banned from this forum?

By the way: its 3-0 Padres.

I am going to have to plead "Newbie" then Spud...and hope that this is a board where evidenced based opinions of all posters are respected, if debated.

JD has been just great when he plays...very productive and a solid defensive RF. I have no problem with him. He does seem to be injury prone though.

Darnell McDonald has done great so far; no doubt about it. He is a career minor league player whose career BA is .251 in the majors with an OPS of .659. More than likely he will begin to regress towards his career stats. Daniel Nava is a great prospect, but still just a prospect-one who would benefit by some seasoning in the minor leagues. He went from A to AA in 09 and from AAA to the majors in 2010. Too much too fast to expect from this kid. The ODDS are that he too will regress if he is not given time in the minors that he needs to develop. As SPUD said, Hermida is a flop; and Cameron is playing hurt and in doing so is hurting the team. Drew has been productive but has a history of frequent injuries and not being willing to play through them. Who knows when Ellsbury will be back..my guess is August. Sure we need bullpen help; that in no way precludes our need for an excellent OF too.

Look at the bottom four in our lineup tonite. Pretty large black hole there against the best pitcher in baseball. I sure hope that our GM is on the phone right now trying to get us some high quality OF help, like David Dejesus. Up until now, Nava and McDonald have overperformed, but that won't last. We've got a tough stretch of games coming up and I would hate to see this group populate our OF for the next 20 games or so.

But here is a picture of the moderator over there: http://i303.photobucket.com/albums/nn146/Castorp20008/sad-clown.jpg