Sure. I would be more than happy to start the game thread. I have faith in Lackey to do exactly what he has been doing all season long for us. Why would anyone expect anything different? So I will start the game thread with the following piece:
Having lost five of their last six, the Boston Red Sox turn tonight to a starter whose struggles have reached near historic proportions.
Highest ERA, 2011 (min. 50 IP)
Pitcher ERA
John Lackey 7.36
Sean O'Sullivan 6.92
Fausto Carmona 5.89
Brad Bergesen 5.88
Javier Vazquez 5.83
John Lackey comes into the contest with the highest ERA among pitcher with 50 innings pitched in 2011.
He finds himself on track for one of the worst first halves ever by a Red Sox pitcher. In fact, since World War II, he’d currently have the highest ERA for a Red Sox pitcher at the All-Star break (minimum 50 innings).
With three starts likely remaining until the break, there’s a significant amount of room between Lackey (7.36 ERA) and the pitcher who currently holds that ignominious distinction. In 1960, Jerry Casale was a 26-year-old fresh off a 13-8 rookie season in which he famously hit a home run in his first start. Battling arm trouble, Casale had a 6.89 ERA at the break, by which time he’d already lost his spot in the rotation.
Since then, Matt Clement’s disastrous 2006 campaign came closest to matching Casale’s poor first half. Now Lackey is on his way to an even worse first half.
Highest ERA at All-Star Break, Sox Since World War II (min. 50 IP)
Pitcher ERA Year
John Lackey 7.36 2011
Jerry Casale 6.89 1960
Matt Clement 6.61 2006
Al Papai 6.57 1950
Billy Muffett 6.54 1961
>>With 2 weeks remaining
In fact, if his season ended right now, Lackey would have the second highest ERA in franchise history for a pitcher with at least 50 innings pitched. In 1937, Wes Ferrell had a 7.61 ERA for the Red Sox before he was traded to the Washington Senators along with his brother Rick. Ferrell salvaged his season by going 11-13 with a 3.94 ERA for Washington, but his Red Sox numbers stand out for their futility.
So what’s gone wrong with Lackey this season? There’s no single pitch that has abandoned him. He hasn’t suffered a severe loss of control. There’s isn’t a particular split betraying him.
Rather, it appears to be several issues stacked upon each other.
Here are some that stand out:
• Opponents are hitting .291 against Lackey, which isn’t a huge spike from the .277 of 2010. However, it’s a different story with runners in scoring position. Opponents are hitting .324 with RISP, which ranks 110th out of 121 qualifying starters. Compare that to .256 in 2010 and .250 in 2009.
• Lackey has really struggled when falling behind in the count. Opponents are hitting .386 after a first-pitch ball. The MLB average is .270. Compare that to after an 0-1 count. Opponents are hitting just .202 against Lackey, well below the .221 MLB average.
• Though not one of his primary pitches (he throws it just 4.7 percent of the time), Lackey’s changeup has been completely ineffective. On at-bats ending with that pitch, opponents are hitting .538 (small sample size alert: 13 at-bats). In each of the last two years, that was below .240.
• In his first time through the order, opponents are hitting just .231. But once a batter has seen Lackey once, it’s a different story. Opponents are hitting .325 after their first plate appearance against him.
• Lackey gets himself in trouble going into the heart of the order. Opposing leadoff hitters have a .541 on-base percentage, the highest against any starting pitcher in the majors.