rjortiz

Give yourself some credit. Iglesias has been about that bad for Detroit.

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/08/19/source-red-sox-call-up-xander-bogaerts-amidst-flurry-of-roster-moves/ Along with Ross and a reliever. De La Rosa, Holt, and Lavarnway down.

Holt really doesn't have a lot of value, so it would make sense that he was bumped in favor of Carp. I really don't understand why Holt is on the roster. He can't hit, doesn't play defense that well, and can't play SS. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bogaerts up for good.

Ellsbury has arguably been the most valuable player for the Red Sox this year. He has a 4.7 WAR, and is projected to finish the season at 5.5. Jackie Bradley Jr. is a promising young player, but banking on him to be more than a two win player in his first full year might be unrealistic. However, Ellsbury is going to land a massive contract, with some projecting him to land six or seven years at $20 million per year. I think he'll only get five, but that's still a huge commitment to make. A big chunk of Ellsbury's value comes from his baserunning and defensive ability. His UZR/150 comes in at 11.3, and he's comfortably in first place in BsR, adding 8.8 runs on the bases. He's also been an above average hitting CF, posting a solid 113 wRC+. The big problem with players like Ellsbury is that speed and defense tends to peak early in careers. I think he's got Michael Bourn/Carl Crawford written all over him. Bourn has seen his UZR numbers fall way off from what they where in 2012, and we all know what happened with Crawford. They haven't been useless players this year, but Cleveland is only paying Bourn $12 million, and Crawford is still overpaid with 4 years to go. I'd expect to see a decline in his fielding and baserunning numbers, and recent history suggests that it's probable that it could happen as soon as next year. He's going to have to hit more to make up for the loss in value. Even with his fluke 2011 season, he has a career 109 wRC+, which is above average, but it's not going to carry him when his legs start to go. Plus, with a loss in speed it's likely that his BABIP will drop to closer to the league average as he won't be able to leg out infield hits further diminishing his value. I think betting on a player turning 30 whose value is tied to his legs is a bad investment, especially if it's anywhere near the rumored amounts that have been floating around. I'd roll the dice on Bradley Jr. and use the savings to upgrade the team elsewhere.

Why? It tells us that Carp has had more than 40% of his balls in play fall in. It isn't a stretch to suggest that he won't be able to sustain that number over his next 162 PA's. Remember Iglesias' .441 BABIP earlier in the year? That sample size was 187 PA's, yet many people correctly predicted that he was going to fall to earth, because it's an unsustainable achievement.

Yeah, it would be an extreme outlier. Cabrera's career BABIP isn't even close to .409. Over the last 20 years, Derek Jeter is the leader with a .355 BABIP, and he was pretty fast in his prime. Mike Carp currently has a BABIP of .409 this year. He isn't fast, doesn't hit a lot of line drives, and could never be mistaken for Miguel Cabrera. He has nowhere to go but down.

Why is it irrelevant? Baserunning is part of the game. Being a terrible baserunner costs your team runs.

That's definitely unsustainable.

He'll be banished when Buchholz gets back.

If someone offers to take just $1,000,000 of Dempster's contract next year, we should move him.

I acknowledged that in my post. I'm just pointing out that if you gave him 100 more AB's (or however many AB's Gomes has against them) as the starter against lefties, it's going to drag his OPS below .800.

From one steroid user to the other.

Yes, it does. Even Miguel Cabrera can't manage a BABIP of .409. He's coming back to earth.

Without Napoli, I don't see any clear upgrades over Gomes. They definitely need to go get another masher in the offseason, though.

He is the RH platoon partner for Nava. Nava is only in because Napoli is hurt.

I don't think they'll burn an option year on Cecchini. They'll probably wait until after the year to put him on the 40 man roster. As for Hamilton, I don't see how he gets any playing time over Napoli or Carp.

Hazelbaker isn't on the 40 man roster, and probably isn't worth designating someone to make room for him. Bogaerts definitely comes up at some point.

How does it not? If you gave Gomes AB's to Nava, they would certainly pull his numbers below an .800 OPS. A .750-.780 OPS player with no defensive skills, and bad baserunning ability isn't that valuable. They are using him exactly the way they should right now. Our starting LF should continue to be Daniel Gomes, or Johnny Nava. Look at his numbers this year. His WAR is 0.9, which is good for 15th out of 20th qualified LF's. If you drop it to 300 PA's, he's 23rd. He has a -11.2 UZR, and adds nothing on the bases. He's a good bench player with some value against right handers, but he's not a starter.

I'm saying the Red Sox should make Gomes or Nava charge the mound, even if Ortiz is hit. We need his bat in the lineup too.

They should make Gomes or Nava charge the mound. We need Pedroia's bat in the lineup.

Wow, the Dodgers are still 42-9 in their last 51.

How soon until Buchholz gets back and we can banish Dempster to the bullpen?

10? It's more than that. He gets on base, and he hits right handers, but he's a terrible fielder, a terrible baserunner, and cannot hit left handed pitching. If he played full-time, it would be even more obvious, but the Red Sox can hide his weaknesses with Gomes. He definitely would not have a .800 OPS with more AB's against lefties. He's a good bench option, but he's not a starter.

I wouldn't go as far as to say you'd have a hole, but Nava full time in LF is definitely below average.

Has to bean Ortiz right? Considering he used PED's too.