rjortiz
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Everything posted by rjortiz
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I was responding to this point. He goes on the bring up Scherzer as an example. Not to beat a dead horse, but to say the Red Sox don't have a real chance in any game against the Tigers is unfounded.
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You can convert the betting line into a percentage. -150 is a 60% chance to win a game. That seems to be a reasonable number. The point being that even with Scherzer on the mound, the Tigers win probability isn't anywhere near the point where you could just write off Game 1. Betting lines are just one way to look at that. They pretty much use the same statistical data that other experts use to make projections, plus the track record of sportsbooks are good enough that they should be taken into consideration when making a prediction. It should at least erase the idea that Scherzer is an absolute lock to win every game he pitches in. BTW, this was more in response to Jung's statement about Scherzer.
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I don't think anyone is overlooking the potential impact. I don't think it is as massive as many people think it is. An ace pitcher against the Red Sox, even at home, wouldn't be more than a -150 favorite, and even that line might be a little high.
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Moore has a lot of talent, but he still has control problems. I like the Red Sox patient approach against a pitcher like him.
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Some other people covered it, but I can't remember the last time someone pitched in Game 1 and Game 4. Even in the ALDS, they use a four man rotation. I also don't see how you can completely write off Game 1 and 4, even if that were the case. How much of a favorite would Detroit be? 60%? Those odds aren't insurmountable.
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I wonder how the Yankees' FO conversation went.
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Also, the Astros have a winning percentage of 33%, so 2/3 on the road is in line with realistic expectations.
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Watching Cubs/Dodgers on MLB.TV. The Chevy Silverado commercial is easily the worst ever on MLB.TV.
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They'll never get rid of divisions, but it seems unfair that a better team out of the East will have to play in a playoff game, whereas the Rangers/A's get to feast on the Mariners and Astros 19 times a year.
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I really would like to know how the conversation to acquire Vernon Wells went.
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Cabrera with #43. Three back of Davis for the league lead in HR's.
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The only thing that stands out from 2006 was that ridiculous diving attempt by Gabe Kapler against the Yankees.
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There's some bad baseball being played in Toronto.
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Nice catch Ichiro.
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This likely eliminates the Mets from contending in 2014. Does anyone think it will impact their decision to go after Ellsbury?
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Also, my book has the Red Sox at -120, and the Rays at EVEN money to win the East. Might want to place a wager on that line, although I love the Red Sox at 9/1 to win the whole thing.
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Clay Buchholz pitched on Sunday for Lowell. Threw 38 pitches over an inning. He allowed three runs on a hit, and three walks. I'm not reading a lot into this start, seeing as it was his first since his injury. He makes one more rehab start, and is projected to come off the DL against the Tigers on September 4th. Matt Moore is coming off the DL on September 3rd against the Angels. Buchholz will likely bump Dempster, and Moore will likely bump Hernandez. A big factor in deciding the race could be which starter returns to form the fastest. BP has the Red Sox at 93.5 wins, and a 60% chance to win the division. It has the Rays at 92.6 wins, with a 37% chance to win the division. Fangraphs is at 94 wins for Boston, 93 for Tampa. It's possible we could see a one-game playoff to determine who wins the East.
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My mistake. I used the wrong term entirely. I should have said the Tigers situational hitting is helping them keep pace with the Red Sox in terms of runs scored. There can be a lot of variance over the course of a month, but in the long term, it isn't likely that the Tigers are going to continue to hit with RISP at that level. I think you'll see the Red Sox gain some separation in runs scored by the end of the year.
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Don't build your franchise around starting pitching.
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The Mariners might be a bad enough organization to QO him in the offseason. Personally, I'd take a C- prospect for him.
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Didn't think of that. That makes a lot of sense. Although, I doubt the Yankees would give up anyone of significance for him. I've also read the Mariners are pretty keen on keeping Morales past 2013. How much is one month of Morales worth? He won't push them into the playoffs.
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I'm guessing Cleveland, Baltimore, or Kansas City. Kansas City, only because Dayton Moore won't admit his season is over.
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The Red Sox have a better offense than the Rays, so they don't have to completely match what the Rays do. They'll play in October if they keep hitting the ball, and continue to have above average starting pitching.
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Run distribution is another component. The Tigers have a .827 OPS with RISP compared to the Orioles .783, and Boston's .763. No doubt that is pushing the Tigers toward the front when it comes to offenses.
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I'd also add that with the suspension of Peralta, the Tigers will be even more reliant on Cabrera to move the offense. Tuiasosopo is a part-time player, and he's likely playing way over his head. Fangraphs projects them at 4.43 R/G RoS, with the Red Sox coming in at 4.75. However, I think fangraphs is too optimistic in projecting Fielder to return to form, and too pessimistic in its projections of Middlebrooks and Bogaerts. I think you'll see the Red Sox separate themselves from the rest of the league when it comes to offensive numbers.