rjortiz

I don't know if -130 and -140 are heavy favorites for a home team. Especially considering Buchholz struggled in his rehab starts, and Dempster is not a good pitcher.

You know you sound like a complete douchebag? Why is that first sentence even necessary? When have the Red Sox had a top three prospect about to assume a full time role before? Has that even happened one time? If you want to hedge your bet, give Peralta $5 million for a one year, or sign some other veteran who can back up multiple positions.

The new QO also sets a salary at $14 million. Type A used the arbitration system, which produced lower salaries. It also was based on position. The new system takes everyone into account. The old system also produced a lot more designated players, which gave teams a chance to earn back a draft pick. A GM would be more likely to sign a Type A free agent, if one of his ex-players also had that tag. There's three important differences that are being overlooked. An interested team would want to bid higher than 1/14, they'd fall out of the first round completely, and there's no chance of them getting back in. The new system makes for more cautious bidders, and dramatically reduces the amount of players with draft pick compensation on them. They have to be a formidable player in the new system. The old system saw players like Juan Cruz and Ryan Madson get a Type A tag. Also, none of those players are applicable to the new system. Willingham and Cuddyer were modified Type A players. They didn't cost a pick for the Twins or Rockies. Martin would have signed with New York if he got a QO. Ramirez was a Type B. Dunn and Figgins got much larger deals than even the 2014 QO threshold is at. You are comparing two dissimilar markets. Can you name a player that was significantly hurt by the old Elias system? It hurt a few relievers, but that highlighted how ridiculous the old system was. The impact the new system had in 2013 was huge. Lohse, Bourn, LaRoche, and Soriano saw their market evaporate when they got slapped with an offer. This is the biggest distinction between the two system. The impact is obviously greater on those players. 4/6 players you mentioned had no draft pick compensation attached to them, and the other two signed for substantially higher salaries. They wouldn't have been affected by either system. Figgins and Dunn were also highly regarded players when they signed. Drew isn't even close to what they were. I really don't understand the point in bringing those players up. Your examples prove that small market teams will sign players with no compensation to them, and that highly regarded players will not be affected by draft pick attachment. We're really getting away from the main point, which is the market for Stephen Drew. I assumed it was already at $189 million for 2013. The only team that really affects is the Yankees, and I had already projected their limit at $189 million for both years. It is an effective $177 million, because of the mandatory share for player benefits each team must pay. Are we talking about small market clubs? There are numerous examples of star players getting huge contract extensions that don't take effect until they sign new TV deals. Longoria, McCutchen, and Votto are the obvious ones. There's almost no recent examples of them spending huge money up front. 1) His injury history and poor three year history will still work against him. Teams don't put 100% stock into just one year. He's also on the downside of his career. 2) OK, so he declines the QO. That still means there has to be an interested party to sign him. 3) So were Lohse and Bourn, and he couldn't protect them from the QO. 4) Which team does this make interested in Drew? 5) Only teams that is really impacted by this are the Yankees and Red Sox 6) Again, which team becomes interested in Drew? 7) $14 million spent on a player that has no spot is a bad allocation of resources. If Drew plays SS in 2014, that probably ends any chance at Bogaerts playing SS long term. I notice you don't mention any potential suitors for Drew. He may very well be all of those things you listed, but you have to convince us that there's a team willing to give a good sized contract, and also willing to lose the draft pick.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/4207/jacoby-ellsbury

If it makes anyone feel better, Scott Boras thinks he'll be ready by the postseason.

I would have started Bogaerts, Bradley, and Ross over Drew, Nava, and Saltalamacchia. This is almost like a spring training game, so I guess I don't care that much.

Green, Cruz, and Wayne are all better options this week. I doubt Boldin comes even close to his numbers against the Seahawks. Green and Cruz should never see your bench, except on a bye week. Maybe Boldin over Wayne if he had a favorable matchup. Wayne is still the unquestioned number one in Indianapolis. I'd bet on him to outproduce Boldin rest of season. That being said, Boldin is probably going to see a lot of targets with Crabtree out. I'd still be cautious about a 32 year old WR who hasn't had a 1,000 yard season in three years.

Line opened at +121, and has moved to +133. 69% of the public is backing the Red Sox. There's some huge bets being put on the Rays. I have no idea how to play this game. I don't feel comfortable backing Buchholz. I like the over tonight at 7.

Has to be one of the top 10 offenses of all time.

At one point, Kalish was a highly regarded prospect. Nava was plucked from the Independent League. I like the Butler answer. He seems to have the same path. He needs multiple injuries to get a shot, and he's not young for a prospect. Hassan is a good comparison, too.

That does make more sense. He could blow out his arm in the next month and a half.

http://riveraveu.sportsblog.com/post/147472/the_yankees_2014_off_season.html "Stewart an All-Star caliber catcher." "Soriano, Granderson, Gardner, and Ichiro the best OF in baseball." I was expecting him to say that Vidal Nuno, Pineda, and Phelps are three aces in waiting, but at least he was honest here. I did notice that Wells is a free player against the payroll, but $2.4 million isn't going to make a huge impact. Maybe try David Adams at 3B, and sign a better pitcher. McCann might be an option at $14 million, but that leaves no space for trading. They should also assume that Rodriguez plays 62 games, so they have to make room for his salary. If they suffer from injury problems, they are going to be fighting to stay out of the cellar. I'd seriously look at punting 2014.

The Drew QO discussion brought up the Yankees as a potential suitor. I looked at their payroll commitments, and I want to see if everyone else thought. I'm going to assume that Rodriguez gets suspended and his salary will not count towards their payroll. Also, going to assume they try to compete and resign Cano. C - Stewart (arb estimate - $1 million) 1B - Teixeira ($22.5 million) 2B - Cano ($25 million) SS - Jeter ($8 million) 3B - Chavez ($4 million) LF - Soriano ($5 million) CF - Garnder (arb. estimate - $5 million) RF - Suzuki ($6.5 million) DH - Granderson ($14 million) C - Cervelli (arb estimate - $750,000) 1B - ? ($500,000) INF - ? ($500,000) OF - Wells ($2.4 million) SP - Sabathia ($23 million) SP - Nova (arb estimated $1.5 million) SP - Kuroda ($18 million) SP - Free Agent ($8 million) SP - Phelps ($500,000) CL - Robertson (arb estimate - $4 million) RP - Kelley (arb estimate - $750,000 RP - Claiborne ($500,000) RP - Logan ($1,000,000) RP - Warren ($500,000) RP - ? ($500,000) RP - ? ($500,000) Pineda (arb estimate - $750,000) 40 man roster spots - $5 million 1/30 player benefit contribution - $12 million Jeter potential bonuses - $9 million Assuming they make no upgrades at catcher, the bench, or the bullpen that gives them a total of $136.15, or about $52.85 million to fill three rotation spots, 3B, and DH. They are going to struggle to replace Rodriguez, as they are no good options at 3B. I guess they could bring Chavez back at $4 million. Granderson or Beltran could play DH. That is going to cost $14 million. Down to $35 million. I'm going to guess they bring back Kuroda at $18 million, maybe take a flier on reclamation project around $8 million, and maybe go with Phelps? That would leave them with $8 million to play with. Maybe Jackson can opine on this, and make some better suggestions. Early projections, but I'm going to go with (projected WAR next to player): CF - Gardner (3) SS - Jeter (2) 1B - Teixeira (2) DH - Granderson (2) 2B - Cano (5) LF - Soriano (2) RF - Ichiro (1) 3B - Chavez (1) C - Stewart (1) Bench - (1) SP - Kuroda (4) SP - Sabathia (3) SP - Nova (2) SP - Free Agent (2) SP - Phelps (1) Bullpen - (3) A team of replacement players wins about 45.5 games. Crude projection, but I'm guessing the Yankees regulars will total about 40 WAR. That puts them at around 80-81 wins. The Yankees offseason is hugely dependent on Rodriguez being suspended for the entire season. If he gets his suspension reduced, it definitely puts a wrinkle in their plans. They'll struggle to field a competitive team in 2014 even without his contract suffocating them.

It's an idea, but Lester probably has more value to the Red Sox next year if they are going to compete. I don't think pitchers with one year of control will bring enough back to make a move.

Remember, we are assuming the Red Sox are going to QO Drew. That means that an interested team in Drew is going to outbid 1/14. Are you saying he's going to get 3/30? A couple things are wrong with these comparisons. All of them came before the qualifying offer was established. You cannot compare the contracts for QO'd players and non-QO'd players. They are two different markets. Figgins had a 4.0, 3.1, and a 6.6 WAR when he signed with Seattle. He also played in four straight seasons with at least 115 games. He wasn't near the question mark that Drew was. He also didn't have a QO attached to him. Willingham signed for less than what Drew would have to get. Don't really see how they are similar. Also, no QO attached. Dunn came off a season where he OPS'd over .900. It wasn't a great move by the White Sox, but looking past that, Chicago isn't exactly a small market. They have got their payroll up to $130 million not too long ago. Also, no QO attached to him, although it probably wouldn't have mattered. Saltalamacchia would be a better comparison for Martin, but again Martin didn't receive a QO, (which would have guaranteed him a return to the Yankees) and signed for less than what Drew would get. His total deal is only worth $3 million more than the QO. The Brewers had a huge hole at 3B, and they were desperate to replace Fielder with some sort of production. I believe the Ramirez deal came after they advanced to the NLCS. Beating a dead horse, but there was no QO attached to him. The Brewers did not have to give up a draft pick. Cuddyer's deal was universally panned when it was announced. It would have been even worse if the Rockies gave up a pick for a player like him. You are right, small market teams do make splashes in free agency, but none of these are applicable to Drew if he gets a QO. How many of these teams are going to be after him? Houston was competing for World Series titles with three front of the rotation starters. Makes sense for them to be at $100 million. There's also a good argument that Loria was participating in fraud to get their new stadium. They probably had no intention of sustaining that team. Bringing them up now, just eliminates two more suitors for Drew. The luxury tax is going to remain at $189. The 1/30 share for player benefits will go up, but not the luxury tax. The $25 million refers to the national TV revenue that is split evenly among all 30 teams. I believe that has been in place for some time. I think the new deal takes into effect in 2014. I think we would have already felt the impact on any TV deals. In fact, some teams are anticipating huge increases in local TV revenues already. The Reds extension of Votto is a good example. They backloaded the deal to take effect when they get a new TV contract. I believe the Pirates have done the same with McCutchen. That's where the biggest impact is being seen. Smaller market teams are extending their stars, which is preventing them from reaching free agency. The free agent market has looked pretty weak. It mainly consists of a few big names, and a bunch of complementary pieces. Small market clubs haven't made any splashes in free agency so far. Unless you count Russell Martin as a big splash, which I don't. Even if you ignored that it still doesn't take away from the point that Stephen Drew has a limited amount of suitors. You really think the Pirates/Rays/Royals are going to invest significant dollars into Stephen Drew? They're going use those funds to lock up Wil Myers, Gerrit Cole, and Eric Hosmer instead. You mentioned two teams. Hardly constitutes a majority. Escobar has a 3.6 WAR. His bat is decent for a SS, and he's a good defender. He's going to play SS for them in 2014. He's only going to be $5 million. Plus, even if he was complete garbage, the Rays are probably going to trade David Price. Why would they reinvest those savings on Stephen Drew? Brandon Crawford has a 2.5 WAR, and a good track record of defensive ability. Plus, he's making the minimum. The Giants aren't going to use that on Stephen Drew. Who else were you thinking about? Cosart? He's at 1.6 WAR, and he's at the minimum. Drew isn't going to Cincinnati, especially considering they have to fill CF and SP, and extend Homer Bailey. Escobar has been pretty awful with the bat, but he's an elite defender at SS, and hit decently in 2012. Royals aren't going to invest significant money on a SS that may not outproduce their incumbent. Plus, they have a lot of arbitration cases to deal with, and they are losing Ervin Santana. Simmons is a poor hitter, but he's the best defender in the game, so he's going nowhere. Hardy? 3.2 WAR, extended through next year. Starlin Castro sticks out, but the Cubs aren't going to replace him with Drew. That really leaves the three teams I pointed out. I didn't completely shut the door on Drew signing with one of them, but the reality is that he has three somewhat legitimate suitors that all have serious question marks. The Red Sox would be taking a $14 million risk on one of those teams being desperate enough to surrender a draft pick and pay Drew somewhere in the area of $30 million over 3 years. He has enough question marks on his own. He isn't going to get an offer from the Red Sox. When/If that happens, there could very well be more suitors involved, and he could land a 3/30 contract, but with the QO it's going to be a huge longshot.

I only started following the team since the 2008 ALCS, and even then I'm not hugely bothered by what the Red Sox do. I guess that's why I don't understand the hysteria sometimes. Baltimore is nine out with 19 to go. We could go 0-17 the rest of the way, and Baltimore would still have to go about .500 to tie, or about what they've been playing at since the end of July. Baltimore is finished. If we went 11-6, Tampa Bay would have to run the table to tie. This race is over. The Paw Sox could hold off the Rays this late.

The end of 2011 was merciful to me. We would have had Bruce Chen pitch in that one-game playoff, and if by some miracle we won that game, our ALDS rotation would have been Lester, Beckett, and Lackey. Texas would have massacred us. I didn't expect too much in 2012, so it was hard to be that disappointed. We weren't that pathetic until after we dumped all of our players. I loved the trade, so I was pretty indifferent to the late season struggles.

Lackey, Buchholz, and Doubront are the only starters inked through 2015. I think 2/4 of the Barnes, Ranuando, Webster, and Owens are probably going to be contributing. Really depends on what he does in 2014. The Reds probably won't let him find out. They have a new TV deal coming up pretty soon, and locking up a pitcher with two no-hitters is going to look better when they go to the negotiating table.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/1061/jon-lester

Never that much of a doubt. That leaves them with six starters going into 2013. Dempster probably gets the boot, but he won't bring back much in a trade.

Nope. Zero percent chance of that happening. Rays played seven against us in 2011, they only play three this year. Compared to 2011, the Red Sox would have to play at a worse percentage, and the Rays would have to play better. Not happening.

I haven't been a Red Sox fan for that long, but do most of them still assume the worst? I felt good when the Sox were only up two a month ago. I've already assumed we've won the division. They have a 7.5 game lead with less than a month to go. Fangraphs projects us at 99.7% probability of winning the division. Most books have stopped offering odds on the AL East, and some European books are already paying out bets on Boston. The Red Sox could go 4-13 the rest of the way, and the Rays would still have to go 13-7 to tie.

You should explain why they are relevant to their interest in Stephen Drew. How many players can you name sign big free agent contracts and immediately changed positions? Even if it might happen, are you saying the Red Sox should offer him a QO, because some team might have interest in him at 2B? Seems like a big risk. KC would have to commit 1/6 of their payroll to Drew. Committing that much money to players that aren't difference makers is a good way to continue being irrelevant. The Angels are not going to surrender the 11th-15th pick for someone like Drew. Might as well keep Aybar. They also have huge holes in their starting rotation. They probably won't have enough money to spend $14 million on a SS after upgrading their rotation. The Pirates would be in the same boat as the Royals, and Neal Huntington is too smart to punt a draft pick for Drew. The Red Sox situation doesn't really have a parallel next year. In order to apply the Red Sox strategy, a team would have to rank near the top in payroll, have a strong foundation that you wouldn't need a difference maker, and they would have had to recently clear $90 million in payroll that they could reinvest. That might happen in the future, but we're only focused on next year. There isn't a team that is remotely similar to the 2012-2013 Red Sox. The Phillies have Rollins, they don't have a lot of flexibility, and don't have near the foundation the Red Sox did going into the offseason. The Angels are already at $131,000,000 before arbitration, and their pitching is more of a concern. Let's actually look at every team and eliminate them: Rays - Have Escobar, and they aren't committing 1/5th of their payroll for Drew Orioles - They have Hardy Yankees - Maybe, but way too many holes. Rays - Already have Reyes White Sox - Not going to compete, plus they have Ramirez Royals - Drew would be 1/6th of their payroll, plus they have Escobar. Twins - Not a strong bet to be competitive, plus holes all over the diamond. Guardians - Cabrera Tigers - Iglesias, probably reaching their limit in payroll anyway Angels - Rotation and bullpen need a makeover, too much in payroll, and pick too high in the draft Astros - Haha, next Mariners - Bad FO might consider it. Rangers - Andrus A's - Payroll limits, plus Lowrie Braves - Simmons Nationals - Desmond Phillies - Rollins Mets - Broke, plus little chance at being competitive, also lot more pressing holes to fill Marlins - Nope Pirates - 1/5th of their payroll on Drew isn't happening Brewers - Segura Reds - Cosart, plus needs in CF and SP Cubs - Castro Cardinals - Not a lot of payroll flexibility, have to replace/extend Beltran, and they wouldn't even trade for Ramirez or Aybar at the deadline. Dodgers - Ramirez Padres - He'd represent a 1/5th of their payroll. Doesn't make them a contender Diamondbacks - Gregorius, not enough room for Drew anyway Rockies - Tulowitzki Giants - Crawford There's only three teams with a somewhat realistic chance at signing Drew. The Mariners aren't a big market team, and Drew is not going to make them contenders. If you count Drew, Morales, and arbitration eligible players that would put them pretty close to their 2013 payroll. If they only have Drew and Morales to show for their offseason signings, Zduriencik deserves to be executed. I'm open to the possibility, because he's going to QO Morales, but I wouldn't bet $14 million on Drew on this happening. The Yankees are probably the most likely, but they have publicly stated their desire to get under the luxury tax. They'll be at $89 million before arbitration, and before they resign Cano. He's probably going to cost 8/200. That puts them at $114 million. Gardner, Robertson, Kelley, Nova, Cervelli, and Pineda are all arbitration eligible. $10-$12 million is probably a decent estimate for all of them. At $126 million. Before we fill any holes, you have to factor in the 1/30th share of player benefit costs that counts toward payroll. The $189 million luxury tax is really a $178 million cap. Adding $11 million more puts the Yankees at $137 million. Next, let's assume the Yankees want to pursue Drew. I assume they would buy Jeter out in that case. His buyout is $3 million. At $140 million. With that much payroll already committed, do you really believe the Yankees will spend $14 million on Stephen Drew? Let's assume they do. That would push them to $154 million. That leaves $24 million to fill the remaining holes at 3B, C, 1B/DH, 3/5ths of the rotation, and a few arms in the bullpen. I'm glad I looked at this closer. The Yankees are in serious financial trouble next year. They better pray that Rodriguez gets a two year ban, because they have no chance of filling out a competitive roster with him on the payroll. It really doesn't look that much better even with him off it. That leaves the Cardinals. They're going to be around $95 million after arbitration. I also notice sites like Cots, and some Cardinals blogs don't factor in the 1/30th mandatory share. That pushes them to $106 million, before Beltran. Assuming they stay at $125 million, they could choose to keep Beltran in RF, or upgrade at SS. The Cardinals have built a strong farm system, and they didn't build it by giving up top prospects for non-impact players. Signing Drew at the cost of a pick would be extremely unusual for Mozeliak. They also would be hard pressed to make any other moves. I could see a fit here, but I don't think it's very likely. Adding Drew and subtracting Beltran is probably a lateral move. Really, that's pretty much it. The other possible destinations you mentioned would be absolutely insane to invest that much in Drew. A qualifying offer should only be offered when you are sure he's going to get more, or if you want him back around that salary. Drew is a giant question mark going into free agency. The Red Sox should not risk $14 million on the slight chance that one of three teams does something idiotic.

I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Ellsbury flop on him, and the Rays fleece him in a David Price deal.

Seeing that we're on the topic of QO's, what's the opinion on the other eligible players? Only Ellsbury seems like an obvious choice. I think the Red Sox are going to pursue McCann, so they may not want to be stuck with Saltalamacchia as a $14 million backup. Even if they don't, Saltalamacchia doesn't appear to have a strong market. Russell Martin only got 2/19. Who would pay more for Saltalamacchia? He's not a good defensive catcher, he's a liability against lefties, and his .359 BABIP is concerning. I could see the Yankees and Rangers show some interest, but I doubt they'll outbid 1/14, and lose a draft pick. I wouldn't make the offer, although being stuck with him at 1/14 isn't the end of the world. We already talked about Drew, so that leaves Napoli. He's probably the most difficult to peg. I think they could get him at 2/20, especially given his hip condition. Having him at 1/14 isn't awful, but I'd rather they pursue Abreu. I don't see teams offering Napoli a lot of money, so they probably could get him around the qualifying offer without having to actually tender it.