rjortiz

Huge swing. Manziel throws a stupid fade route for an INT, and Alabama makes them pay. 21-14. Great game so far.

Game on. 14-14.

Better from Alabama, 14-7.

Ditto second drive, 14-0 TAMU

Manziel makes it look easy in his first drive.

Only? Be sure to say please and thank you when you use Daddy's credit card.

You aren't counting the 1/30 benefit share, and you aren't counting the salaries of 40 man roster players. That's at least $15-$17 million dollars.

How many teams were in your league? I'm assuming your roster construction is QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, W/R, K, DEF. QB - Rodgers QB - Rodgers RB - Lynch RB - Lynch RB - McCoy RB - McCoy WR - Jackson WR - Jackson WR - Bowe/Nelson/Boldin/Edelman WR - Jones TE - Witten TE - Witten W/R - Johnson W/R - Bowe/Edelman/Boldin D: 49ers D - 49ers K: Raiders only offensive threat K - ROOT I wouldn't do it. Nelson is unbelievably underrated. He had a 1,250/15 TD season two years ago, which almost no one seems to remember. He looked sharp in the opener, and he's catching passes from the best QB in the game. He's a low 1/very high 2 in an eight team league. You definitely upgrade from Nelson to Jones, but I think you lose more falling off from Johnson to one of your WR's. Fantasy owners hate Johnson, because he is wildly inconsistent, but I think that makes them overlook the weeks where he wins games by himself. The Titans were awful last year, and he still ran for 1,240/6. They upgraded their OL over the offseason, so he's a good bet to finish around there again. Also, Locker could find himself on the bench, which means check down king Ryan Fitzpatrick could be getting starts. Johnson would catch a lot more balls if this happens. If you still hate Johnson, ask yourself if Edelman/Bowe/Boldin are likely to score more points over the whole season. Johnson is probably the most likely to score the most points out of anyone in that trade. Ryan Mathews is a throw-in. He'll only start for you if you have a rash of injuries. Speaking of those, if you trade Johnson you have the RBBC Lamar Miller, the injured Le'Veon Bell, and a RB who lost the bulk of the carries to Ronnie Brown. You're in serious trouble if you lose a RB. Wait until Miller or Bell shows something. Maybe then you can move Johnson.

Tex or Davis move to DH. LaRoche is awful, and I didn't mention any of the other teams. Detriot could possibly move Fielder to DH, although I think they don't have that much available to spend.

It's a good team, but the Sox would have to go over the luxury tax to field it. Also, while it would be an elite offense, the 2003 Red Sox couldn't even manage 1000 runs. Very hard to manage that accomplishment.

I think 5/50 is the starting bid. A 26 year old free agent with prestigious power upside is going to attract a lot of interest. Baltimore, Washington, Texas, Boston, both NY teams, and even lower-middle market teams are going to have interest. He's the kind of player that you sign to a long term deal even if you're not an elite contender. I wouldn't be surprised to see 5/70 or 6/84 win the auction.

Depends on your roster. Who else is on your team?

$112 million to a player that has never taken an MLB bat is a humongous risk. They did go $100 million for Dice-K, but only half counted toward the payroll, and the JPL is better than the Cuban league. I'd pass at that price. I think Napoli is different from Drew and Saltalamacchia, because there's not much downside if he accepts the offer. I really don't see a team going 2/28 for Napoli with draft pick compensation tied in. He has the hip issue and he's getting older. The QO might choke his value down enough for the Red Sox to go 2/20, or 2/22 and get him. He'll be this years Adam LaRoche if he gets an offer.

I'd let Salty walk. He's a bad defender, bad against lefties, has a 30.8% K rate, a .360 BABIP, and a .322 OBP despite that lofty number. His power numbers are significantly down for last year. I could tolerate the K's if he was hitting some more balls out. Giving him $14 million for a year isn't a substantial overpay, but why should they overpay for a regression candidate? Might as well try for McCann. If that falls through, they can probably bring Saltalamacchia back for much less than $14 million. I really don't see a huge market for him either. Who could use a catcher? A's, Angels, White Sox, Yankees, Braves, Rangers, and Rays come to mind. Rays and A's won't outbid a QO, plus give up the draft pick. They'd probably be on him at 3/24, but if Salty has to consider those offers, he didn't get a QO. Angels are tapped out, with serious holes in their rotation, and the upgrade from Conger/Ianetta to Saltalamacchia isn't that substantial. The Braves are not big spenders, and the idea of them letting McCann walk only to pay around the same salary for Saltalmacchia is laughable. The White Sox are terrible, and face a pretty substantial rebuild. Saltalamacchia as a building block is a guaranteed way to lengthen that process. I really think the Yankees are going to be quiet this offseason. They have a lot of holes to fill, and spending a huge chunk on a above-average catcher at best is a waste of resources. Hopefully, they do it. The Rangers are probably the most likely, but they'll probably be after McCann first. I really can't see them offer the same AAV plus the pick for Saltalamacchia. When you think of $14 million players, Saltalamacchia doesn't come to mind. They should be offering these QO's to players that have a legitimate interest on the open market. They shouldn't praying that one or two suitors might get desperate and take him off our hands.

A player that has never taken an at-bat in MLB does not have a floor of an .850 OPS. That projection is unbelievably optimistic. If that were true, I mean just his floor being a .850 OPS, then he would be commanding $20 million AAV. That's probably just a starting point.

You're making the same mistake other people are. The Red Sox can tell him that he's going to be the backup when they offer the $14 million. He's still going to take it if he doesn't find any good offers from another team. Just because he won't sign with the Red Sox, doesn't mean that another team is guaranteed to sign him. Who are these teams that are going to outbid the $14 million offer on the table, plus surrender the draft pick? Will the people in the Drew QO camp for a draft pick please tell me who these teams are? Maybe if he becomes so cheap that he's impossible to pass on. Probably like 1/6 could prompt some teams to make a bid, but then he would fire his agent for telling him to decline the QO. Also, Drew eats up $14 million from the budget of $40 million. Abreu is not going to be cheaper than Drew. He's a monster in Cuba with better numbers than Puig and Cespedes. Teams have also watch those two play very well in MLB. He's going to get a long term contract, probably 5 years, and at least $10 million AAV. He's not going to be cheap, and they are several teams that will want to place a bid for him. This is the kind of player you would offer a QO to. A highly regarded talent with a clearly defined market of interested teams. Drew is above-average, injury prone, in his decline years, and doesn't look likely to have a lot of demand. Unless you want him back as the SS, there's no reason to sign him to a QO.

On a legitimate upgrade. They don't have to use the money on a free agent. They can fit a good player with a high salary on a trade. Stanton? Carlos Gonzalez? McCann would be an upgrade. The Cuban kid has a massive potential. He would be a better investment than Drew. They could definitely do both if Drew walks. Are you talking about Choo in RF, and Victorino in CF? I like it more than signing Drew, but I'm not 100% on board with signing a bad defense, soon to be 32 year old to a likely 5/85 contract. I'd rather explore some trade candidates first. Better idea than Drew, because at least there's some short-term value, but not a long term fan of Ellsbury. Baserunning and defense first CF's don't age well. I could be convinced if someone showed me that the short term gain was enough to offset the long term decline. Considering the Red Sox have a open title window, I think that argument could be made. Essentially, Bradley is your backup CF/RF. He only gets regular playing time if Ellsbury or Victorino go down. One of the reasons, I'm open to Ellsbury extension is that they could use Bradley as a trade chip. He could fetch something very useful in return. I suggested this awhile back. No disagreements here. The problem is what is Peralta going to get, and since the Tigers are almost guaranteed to not offer a QO, there are probably some teams that are going to pursue him instead of Drew. Why the arguments about John Valentin earlier? Have you changed your mind about Drew being worth 3/45? The disagreement started from there, and you warned us not to pencil Bogaerts in as the starting SS. I think everyone for letting Drew walk had suggested signing a utility veteran. Who plays RF is Bradley flops? Again, I looked at the Yankee payroll for 2014. They have $53 million dollars for DH, 3B, and three rotation spots. That's if they don't upgrade at C, RF, the bench, or the bullpen. This also assumes Rodriguez misses the whole year. You mentioned him in your post. If he isn't suspended they have $26 million for their rotation, DH, and the rest of their holes. Drew is not going to New York, unless they exceed the luxury tax. They can always explore a trade for a utility infielder. They don't cost a substantial amount of talent to land, especially if they are on rebuilding teams.

Bogaerts is not going to be a utility infielder. He either plays everyday, or he goes back to Pawtucket. How many AB's would he get as the utility player anyway? He can only play SS and 3B. Also, you're not even suggesting they move WMB to 1B. In your scenario, they would need to fill a hole at 1B after signing Drew. That would leave $26 million for a C, 1B, and CF.

There's been many attempts to find an equivalency for this situation. There isn't a precedent to really base this on. The Red Sox have never made a decision that can be compared to the one they face in 2014. Beltre is a borderline HOF candidate. He had a WAR of 6.6 in 2010, and had a track record of health, and solid performances. He also had an almost 10 WAR season, so his potential had to be considered substantially higher than Drew's. He got a 5/70 offer from the Rangers, which would have shattered the 2014 QO. The decision to let Beltre walk was made when they landed Adrian Gonzalez. There wasn't a superstar prospect pushing him out. The situations are different by a huge margin. If there's a QO, I don't think you have to worry about Drew in the Bronx, and even without one the Yankees are going to be up against the tax. I wrote about their situation in the Yankees forum. Basically, they are going to have $53 million to fill 3B, DH, and three spots in the rotation. That assumes they don't find a caddy for Jeter, go with Stewart at catcher, and fill all of their holes internally. A qualifying offer forces them to bid at least 3/30, maybe 2/24. If they do that, that's going to be $19 to $21 million for two SS's. They also still have to fill those other gaping holes on the roster. I really hope they sign Drew. It would guarantee that they have an extremely weak rotation, and major holes at 3B, C, RF, probably DH, and the bullpen. They'd also have a pretty weak bench with little depth. A few injuries to starting players, and they plummet quickly. I've seen the sign Drew and move the others option pretty often. They'll probably have around $40 million to fill 1B, C, CF, and SS. Drew at the QO would eat $14 million of that space. I'm assuming WMB moves to 1B, so Napoli is gone. It also signals the end for Ellsbury. They could still sign McCann, but he's probably it. Also, need a backup INF. There's probable declines at 1B, RF, CF, and DH. If they don't sign McCann, Saltalamacchia is a regression candidate. The only position they actually looks better is Bogaerts at 3B, because WMB was terrible in the first half. Drew has been at 1.7, -0.7, and 2.3 WAR the last three years. He's a year older, and not a guarantee to stay healthy. A three win season is probably too optimistic. They should be using this money to improve the team in 2014. Drew isn't an upgrade. $14 million is not a good investment. One more thing to consider is the long term position of Bogaerts. If he plays a full year at 3B in the majors, he's probably never moving back to SS.

Boldin on the road against Seattle is pretty risky. Kaepernick was not very good against them last year. I would rank Boldin 4th in your group. Bowe is probably 3rd. I wouldn't look too much into the Jaguars game. The Chiefs had already won by the second quarter, so they didn't need to throw. I think Bowe is one of those better in real life players. Smith is a check down machine, so that will hurt Bowe's production. He's a WR2 in a deeper fantasy league, but if you have better options look at those. It's really between Edelman and Johnson. Edelman looks like Brady's only option tonight, so he's going to be targeted often. The Patriots also love him. He was starting over Welker last year, before he got hurt. The Jets have a great secondary, but you can safely assume seven points for him. At the worst, he'll probably go 7/70. The drawback I can think about is the lack of big play ability. He's in the slot most of the time. Brady looks his way in the red zone, so that might mitigate the concern. I think he's the safest pick out of the four. Johnson probably has the highest potential, but he's also one of the higher risks. He's always a threat to take it to the house when he gets the ball, but he also is frequently running for -2, -1, and 0 yard gains. He wasn't great against Pittsburgh, but he did get 25 carries. Tennessee knows the offense is going to move through him, because Locker sucks. Of course, having a bad QB allows the defense to stack the box. That luxury, plus a top five run defense are huge red flags. Also, Tennessee is not a good football team. They could easily find themselves throwing to catch up. Johnson is either going for 10/30/0, or 25/150/2. A gun to my head, I'd go with Johnson, because I like big play players. Edelman is the safer pick.

Signing a depth option for $14 million would be unprecedented for this organization. Drew would also be an inflexible asset, because he can't be traded until June. You keep bringing up the point that we should offer Drew a contract, because he won't accept an offer from the Red Sox. That doesn't equate a demand rise from other teams. Some team is still going to want to forfeit a draft pick for him.

I'd keep him for a few more weeks. The 49ers are thin at WR, so he's just battling Vernon Davis for targets. A few more games with 15 plus targets will boost his value a little more. I'm still cautious about him, because of age and recent history but there's some potential for his value to go higher. If someone offers Trent Richardson for him, by all means jump on that immediately.

I already mentioned the differences in the Nomar situation, but the other ones aren't similar either. Ellsbury covered all three OF positions due to injury. There's also more AB's to give around in the OF, when a player is flexible to play all three. Pedroia played everyday down the 2006 stretch, but he was handed the job in 2007. His only real competition was Alex Cora, who didn't make near the money Drew would. Maybe if they signed Loretta there would be a legitimate comparison. Youkilis started out as a 1B, and I think his competition was J.T. Snow, another low cost veteran. As for Lester and Papelbon, there are more spots on a pitching staff, so I think they are different from competition from positional players. If you want to bring in veteran competition, I'm all for that. I just don't think we should pay that person $14 million.

Valentin played everyday at 2nd and 3rd the next two years after Nomar's debut. His 2000 and 2001 seasons were complete wastes. He was pretty highly paid for a late 90's player, but he could be moved around. Drew has never played another position other than SS, and he's blocked by Pedroia and Middlebrooks on both sides. The other players have to move if Drew sticks around, which did not happen with Valentin. There isn't an equivalence here. If you want to argue that Bogaerts should move to 3B, and Middlebrooks to 1B that's a different argument.

They made sure that everyone knew what the song of the day was. Couldn't get that part wrong.