TutGadol

Frnaklin Morales this year isn't a fluke. His line is 8.3/.5/2.3/9.6 (H/HR/BB/K per 9). His FIP is lower then his ERA (2.8 vs. 3.12), both his SIERA and tERA are below 3. He wasn't lucky, he was really that good. His BABIP is .319, it's a chunk above both the league and his own average. Even in his weak years he generated a sub .300 BABIP. His LOB% is at 75.8%, which is a bit high but understandable considering his low WHIP of 1.18. I know people are complaining because of his 5.4% HR/FB, however in his case his HR/FB% is lying. Morales's FB% is 39%, just sightly above the league average, However 55% (!!) of the fly balls he generates stay in the infield. This is understandable considering the late movement his fastball has up in the zone and above it, hitters will often swing under it or pop it up. Because of his high IFFB% I believe a more appropriate stat for his line will be HR/OFFB% (Home-runs per outfield fly ball percentage). I calculated the league average HR/OFFB% to be at 13.15%, based on the stats I found on fangraphs. Morales HR/OFFB% stands at an average 13.13%. Again, stating Morales thus far wasn't lucky, he's really that good and even better. In addition, his K/9 doesn't appear to be dropping. his O-contact% and especially his Z-Contact% are below average. And hitters are swinging at his pitches 48.8% of the time (League average is 46%), which isn't vastly beyond average but it does indicate his strikeouts are no flukes, and I predict they will stay high when starting as long as he goes the amount of innings that allow him to throw at the low to mid-high 90s. Why, yes. I am a sabermetrics whore.

Good game. Now take 3 or 4 from Seattle. Goodnight.

Haha, It looked like McDonald stole a HR. Silly me.

When paired with HR/FB, BABIP and LOB% you get a very good picture of how the pitcher would progress. it gives you a good idea of how much luck was involved in his ERA. Also, all those stats above take less of a sample rate then ERA.

5.62. I don't see what you're getting at.

Yay Pettite is out.

With Lavarnway hot how about trading Shopach at the deadline? Or will the FO be hesitant to go with two minus defensive catchers.

That was a hit either way...

s*** Darnell I can make that play.

If a homer hit my car I'd be happy. A nice piece of memorabilia.

Wow that looked like a screwball.

When you walk MacD you have to sit yourself down, have a good look in the mirror, and really think hard about your future and your significance on this earth.

I'm guessing we'll see some Morterson action unless Lester goes 8. Melancon might throw too.

Goodbye Romero.

I didn't know Buch's injury was that serious, to the level that it was possibly life threatening at some time.

DMac got two changeups up-middle and couldn't do anything.

Game over in the first?

If I was a BJ fan I'd be fuming right now.

Very nice. Peddy is on a vintage hot streak.

Romero can't get a call.

I'm going to go on a limb and say that was the last run Lester allows today.

Another 1st inning struggles. Great.

Why isn't the game starting? Is there rain delay?