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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    I'm sorry but I really don't understand the question exactly. But WAR is the metric if I had to pick one.
  2. Bellhorn04
    In 2014 a guy named Eric Stults had an ERA of exactly 4.3 for San Diego in 176 innings (the 4.3 ERA is why I picked him). His FanGraphs WAR was 0.1.
  3. Bellhorn04
    You've been using WAR a lot here, which is really good. But ERA is not a reliable measure, and you're mixing and matching new school with old school. Like I said, Porcello's WAR says he has been pitching better than a 4.3 ERA.
  4. Bellhorn04
    But you shouldn't be equating a 2.5 WAR with a 4.3 ERA. A 2.5 WAR indicates someone who has been pitching better than a 4.3 ERA would suggest. In Porcello's case some of that ERA with Detroit was attributable to bad defense.
  5. Bellhorn04
    Fair enough. Historically, it's been very difficult for pitchers of Lester's age to maintain their performance for long. He could be an exception, certainly. I think Epstein said something about thinking Lester could age like Pettitte.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Porcello was showing a lot of improvement in 2013, before the breakout season in 2014.
  7. Bellhorn04
    With Lester's contract there is no potential upside. You're basically praying like hell he can maintain his current level going forward. With Porcello there is some potential upside because of his age and trending. There's potential downside too, of course. Doing comparisons involves a lot of different factors. Lester's contract broke through a barrier because it was by far the most money ever given to a guy who has not clearly been a #1.
  8. Bellhorn04
    I think you can make a pretty good case that Porcello's extension is more team-friendly than Bailey's was.
  9. Bellhorn04
    What about Homer Bailey? 6 years and 105 million. That's 17.5 million a year, and over 20 million more in guaranteed money.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Nicely done.
  11. Bellhorn04
    Seriously folks, stop laying abuse on each other.
  12. Bellhorn04
    They haven't been clutch. But seriously, isn't hitting with RISP supposed to be one of those things that eventually returns to the norm?
  13. Bellhorn04
    Masterson hasn't been bad. 4 of his 5 starts have been decent.
  14. Bellhorn04
    I honestly don't think anybody can say anything about Porcello they haven't already said. How about this-from now on you can only post about Porcello on the days he pitches?
  15. Bellhorn04
    Chase Headley with 7 errors so far - that's weird.
  16. Bellhorn04
    Not much consolation, but Andrew Miller's 32-pitch outing last night was costly for the Yankees tonight, as they tried to close the game with Chris Martin and Betances and the Jays scored 3 in the 8th to win.
  17. Bellhorn04
    A common experience of tenement living and other similar style housing in New York City (and other cities) during the manufacturing boom of the late 19th and early 20th century. Apartments were built similar in design with one's bedroom under another's. Thus, it was normal to hear a neighbor removing shoes and hearing them hit the floor above. As one shoe made a sound hitting the floor, the expectation for the other shoe to make a similar sound was created.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Don't forget that there is no discount on Lester's salary this year. I think that's where the difference in our numbers probably is.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Here are my calculations using a 5% discount factor. PORCELLO ACTUAL DISCOUNT NPV 2016 20.13 0.95 19.17 2017 20.13 0.91 18.25 2018 21.13 0.86 18.25 2019 21.13 0.82 17.38 82.50 73.05 LESTER 2015 20.00 1.00 20.00 2016 25.00 0.95 23.81 2017 25.00 0.91 22.68 2018 27.50 0.86 23.76 2019 27.50 0.82 22.62 2020 30.00 0.78 23.51 155.00 136.37 136.37 = 186.7% of 73.05
  20. Bellhorn04
    Now we're getting silly. What I said was 'total amount at risk is almost double'.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Lester's career ERA is 3.60. He is clearly a #2 pitcher by the definitions that I've been seeing on this thread.
  22. Bellhorn04
    I realize that. There are other differences too, like their ages. The total amount at risk is close to double. That's just a fact.
  23. Bellhorn04
    What? I wasn't comparing them at all. Lester's deal is double Porcello's. I'm questioning the assertion that was clearly made that Lester is in the Top 10.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Not sure why it's surprising. What other pitchers comparable in the least to Porcello has Ben inked since he became GM?
  25. Bellhorn04
    Is Lester one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball? Based on what numbers?
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