jung

I am not sure I would use language this strong. Remembering that in MLB these are guaranteed contracts would you "surely decline" $17-$20M per year for five years if that was being offered? You could just as easily blow out your arm at the end of a two year deal and then where are you? Tim made $13M in 2011 so even $15-17M per over five years would look pretty sweet I would think. I think it is odd for a guy to be as disinclined to long term deals as Tim appears to be and he does make it sound like he has already rejected longer term deals that what he has had to date.

I am hazy on the protocol here. If a team grants permission for the guy to discuss an opportunity to move up with another team which this would have been for Baird, once that bridge is crossed if the guy wants to take the better position and advance his career doesn't it just come down to compensation? In other words I am thinking that once a team allows the exec to be interviewed as long as it is not a sideways move, if the guy wants to take the job he can take it and it then it becomes a matter for the two clubs to discuss and agree to compensation. Do I have that correct? The point being that allowing the interview is I think the last practical block to this sort of deal.

This seems to be one item that is actually being driven from Tim's side. He has publicly stated that he likes these short term deals claiming that "he is uncomfortable with the pressure" of having to perform over such an extended period of time. Probably pretty commendable when you think about it but it does put the team (any team) in an odd position since you would think it would be the player pushing for or at least acquiescing to the longer term. As it is now he must go out there and prove himself every couple of years. I think his current deal has the Giants holding two years of arbitration rights over him with him at his current numbers plus performance bonuses.

This is all pretty hypothetical is it not? Rarely see a top notch SP like Lincecum traded for an everyday player straight up as we are toying with here even if the SP does not have his face plastered all over his current town.

I agree that Valentine is the guy that JH wants and that as much as anything else has me worried about Valentine. I have liked Martinez from the start but if this boils down to JH gets his boy and we turn Cherington into the behind the curtain coach and LL into the behind the curtain GM we are all in for much more pain.

One thing we might not be taking into account is the degree to which the Sox made their own bed with regard to pitching in 2011. That is not to say that we should not be focused on pitching because pitching wins pennants and WS...no question. On the other hand you cannot "plan" for the destruction of your pitching staff. You can't have 12 starters lined up in the bullpen so that you can plug the next one in as they go down. The shame of it is that we don't have anybody down on the farm less than a couple years away from being able to pitch. That used to be part of the answer to the way teams prepared for injuries to their front line pitchers. All I am saying here is that this is another facet of the corner that the Sox have boxed themselves into. I guess we have to acknowledge that part of Lackey's problem in both 2010 and 2011 was physical but we never should have brought Lackey here to begin with. The Buckholtz injury does not look like it is going to be out of character bad. Dice went down in the more traditional sense of a pitcher just plan going down for the season. However in reality where we really suffered was nobody, not Beckett, not Lester, not Wake, not Lackey not Miller not anybody we had left could get out of the 6th inning. It got to the point where I was feeling fortunate if they could get out of the 5th. For the guys at the back of your rotation to have problems getting out of the 5th inning is one thing. When you don't have anybody that can get past the 5th and 6th innings, you are a mess. So, we stripped ourselves of SP that could make their way up to the big club. We brought Lackey here, a move that never should have been made in the first place. I for one never liked the idea of bringing Dice here although all things being equal he has not been terrible. While I agree that to some extent these guys have to take care of themselves, we clearly did not create an environment that would have promoted good conditioning. Wow...our starting pitching sucks...no s*** Sherlock. I would hope it is one thing that might make conditioning for 2012 an even more important element. As to what this FO finally does or does not do, that remains to be seen but I will continue to be concerned until I see some visible signs that JH and LL have come to their senses not with regard to revenues which have been fine but with regard to the product they put on the field.

The length of Kaat's career was pretty staggering and while I was not as experienced as I am now in my ability to see not just look at what a pitcher is doing I can remember how much respect the two teams I have spent the most time (Sox and Yanks) showed for Kaat when he came to town. Struggling in anonymity has real meaning without the Internet. I do think Tiant and Hunter had more showy careers over shorter periods but I just cannot imagine hawlin' the mail for the length of time Kaat played. The last couple of years were not much to be sure.

I am very much in favor of the Sox making an effort to understand what they could get for Ellsbury given the slim to none chance that he would remain a member of the Sox past his current contact obligations. I posted my concerns about Lincecum a few weeks ago and they have not changed. I actually think he exerts more torque on his arm than Pedro did. His innings are still above 200 per but are coming down along with his SO's If I had my preference I guess I would probably prefer multiple players for Ells if I was in fact going to trade him. If he were going to be traded for one star pitcher I would guess I would want someone I was a little less concerned with than Lincecum as far as injury potential. Ells is the one no holds bared, genuine attraction we have to offer as an everyday player and I would want to get the absolute most I could get for trading him. I guess I would say that if the deal were Ells for Lincecum straight up then I would prefer a pitcher I was less worried about than Lincecum and would be willing to add somebody to Ells to get a star pitcher with less question marks due to potential for injury and changing from NL West to AL East. So as much as I like Linececum and as much as I want the Sox to seriously explore trade options for Ells I don't think I would do this deal. Given the limited options the Sox have right now and the value that Ells represents in that regard I either want multiple players for Ells, including at least one guy that is a solid addition somewhere in the rotation and with each of them making some sense...no throw ins, or I am willing to toss in somebody good with Ells to get a star SP with no question marks.

Some love for El Tiante', a starting pitcher that actually knew what the 9th inning looked like from the mound instead of the damned clubhouse!

Even if Ells wanted to be here he WILL get all the way to free agency and that about kills him staying here as much as anything else because the Sox won't be able to move Crawford's contract and won't invest $40M per year just to have two outfield positions covered. It ain't happening. I suppose there is the possibility that Ells falls apart in the next two years if he stays here diminishing his FA value but the Sox have made their own bed in that regard as well since Ells can benchmark to Crawford. One last legacy of Theo's time here is that the Crawford deal put the last nail in the Ells coffin in all but the most bizarre of possible circumstances. In this case I guess it will be the ghost of Theo that finishes the process. The only real question is do we try to get something for him this year or do we just ride Ells contract out hoping to win it all in the process. We could do that I guess. However as one of our other esteemed posters has pointed out, the Sox have a history of losing because they do not have enough pitching not because they don't have enough offense and almost by some cosmic destiny, the Sox team defies different owners, different FO personnel and finds themselves exactly where they were for the bulk of the modern baseball era. The only difference is that they have gone one step farther this time around and have a predominantly left handed lineup in a park built for right handed hitters.

Another one on the wire today...the 5 day exclusive period that the Sox had to make an offer to Ortiz has expired. As you might have guessed given his recent penchant Dave commented expressing some sort of disappointment. That said I don't think it is meaningful in any sense other than that the Sox do not believe that Ortiz will receive offers along the lines of what he would find desirable. It would appear that the Sox are willing to see what Dave is offered and make a decision about what they will do at that point.

Surprised I have not seen anything posted here yet but the Sox Strength and Conditioning Coach apparently has been let go as of today.

As I had indicated earlier my view on Ells is based on being pretty confident that when you look at all of the particulars (what has happened here with Ells, his agent's propensity to take players like Ells through the full terms of their contracts and into the FA market) Ells will be gone at the end of this contract. Ells is not going to consider an extension even if offered and once he gets to the FA market, not only would there be no home town discount to the Sox, if anything he would demand a premium to stay. So he is gone. It is only a matter of determining if we can put together an outfield without him earlier than the term of his contract and what we can get for him in a trade. Just as an aside, more and more we are hearing rumors of players just not interested in coming back here. Maybe it is all smoke but a good deal of what has been attractive about coming here has been the chance to win it all and I think it possible that guys are beginning to wonder if other teams have just as much of a chance to win it all without all the crap that seems to come along with being here. Tito interviewing in St. Louis gives one cause to wonder. Back to Ells, I think the Sox would be out of their minds not to explore what they could get for him in trade although I would want a "goooood" deal for the Sox if I am moving Ells this year. Can they deal with some of the real problems this team has by moving Ells now and can they maintain enough offensive fire power without him? The answer to the fire power question is likely yes although you might be more inclined to keep Ortiz without Ells.

All fine except I think all you are really saying is that there is going to be a penalty for FO indiscretions of the last few years. While I would acknowledge that it is a lousy place to be in the prime production years of a number of everyday players since I don't see JH doing much to loosen the purse strings I think 2012 becomes a year of in some ways making do with what we have until we can catch up a little in the farm system. This team needs time to recover. It needs time to heal. Need I remind us that Cherington has already said as much as far as money for 2012 is concerned or do we want to close our ears as well as our eyes. You are suggesting that the FO is going to send off Beckett to a team presuming he is going to become their #1 and that the Sox are going to pay $5M for the privilege to boot. I don't see that happening and I don't think Beckett is anytime soon going to be a #1 pitcher for anybody. He was probably the best starter we had in 2011 but could you give him the ball with any confidence that he was going to get you a win if you needed one? Carp was a good example of what a #1 SP for a contending team is supposed to be. Beckett does not appear to be there at this point and I don't see him getting back there in 2012. And: If he is in fact so prone to breaking down, don't you think a team like the Rangers or anybody else for that matter is going to question his ability to be their #1? You can't have it both ways. You can't project him as a #1 for somebody else while claiming it is only a matter of time before he breaks down here. What...is there something in our water that makes him break down here but thrive someplace else? The problem is that there is no scenario that brings back enough value for letting Beckett go meaning it is another backwards step for a team that has already taken to many backwards steps particularly with regard to pitching. There is just no fast or easy answer to that problem. Maybe in fact we should stop worrying about the "prime years" for a number of our everyday players as if there is one thing that has been proven time and again it is that everyday players may put fannies in the seats but they won't put any more flags up in center field. Neither will taking more backwards steps than we have already taken especially in starting pitching. Who knows, since we are now stuck paying Lackey while he gets TJ maybe he comes back as something other than Hurricane John recking havoc on everything in his wake in 2013. In fact, other than getting rid of real dead wood like Wake and Tek and Ortiz if he won't take short money or decent money for 1 year with an option, I don't see the Sox moving many players off this roster. There is one everyday player exception beyond the question of Ortiz that is probably worth considering. Ells is not coming back to this team past his contract obligations. Moving him at his peak value may well make sense given what I consider to be an undeniable fact.

As far as the starting rotation goes, if for a minute we assume that either Aceves or Bard moves into the rotation, aren't we really left looking for a #4 starter for 2012? Maybe it is somebody with major upside that we think can be a #4 if he does not end up able to turn major upside hopes into reality. It is hard to build a staff out of these major upside guys because you just can't have that much faith in them. But it would seem like 2012 would be a good year to see if we can pull in a #4 that maybe becomes our 2012 version of Aceves from a results vs expectations perspective. I think it would be worth the gamble especially since I think we give this Lester at the top of the rotation thing one more year to materialize before we end up forced to go try and get somebody. Really Lester should do it but there are plenty of examples out there of big league pitchers that just never made the grade when the added pressure of being THE GUY was added to the equation. By all rights that seems to be what happened to Lester in 2011 but he sure did not seem to get any help in making that transition either. If he can't I think that means we will be looking at the FA market going into 2013 looking for a guy at the top of the rotation. I really don't think we had a #1 in 2011 because regardless of their stats there was not a single SP on the staff that we could hand the ball to as a stopper. A stopper does not have to be successful in that role every time out but you have to have confidence that he can get the job done and we had nobody that filled that role in 2011. It is hard to have post season aspirations if you don't have that one guy that you feel like you can hand the ball to when you really need a win. During the regular season he keeps 4 game slides from turning into 8-10 game disasters and in the post season he becomes the guy that can get you up 1-0 or can win the 7th game for you as Carp did for the Cards. I know moving Aceves or Bard into the rotation means we are looking for even more BP help but I would rather be looking for BP help than starters.

Gotta' agree with User on this one. I don't want to repeat what he has posted but I do think he has it right as far as these Beckett trade scenarios are concerned.

The move to left, the med staff screw up, Ells going outside the Sox organization for his rehab and then getting dinged for it by Youk....all adds up to "I am outta here". While for obvious reasons I do not want to see Ells hurt again, I would be willing to bet that it it were to happen, after the mandatory Sox examination and process, Ells would be on to a second opinion as fast as his legs would carry him and if needed we would likely see a repeat of his doing rehab outside of the Sox org as well.

I don't believe Ells wants to be here past his current contract obligations.

Boy hard to see where this sort of injury (if proven recovered from) would change his value especially in this day and age of teams taking all kinds of risks when SP is involved. As for Sizemore, I can't see the Sox going near him even with a performance based contract. He would be a distraction from the business at hand I think and they need position players that can stay off the DL. In their case not paying him because his contract would be performance based is only part of the problem.

OK, I can buy that as well. Heck if any one of my projections turned out to be off by as little as a half year or so, that would represent a thrilling reversal of form in my case.

Do you mean sometime during the 2012 season User or are you thinkin' the year after?

I guess it has not actually been something that the board has commented on much but I was inclined to thinking Iglesias does get most of the work and Scuts maintains his role becoming the 2012 replacement at SS and 2nd....maybe 3rd. Maybe a question worth asking. Do others think the plan would be for Iglesias to end up with most of the work at SS in 2012 with Scuts as the classic "reserve infielder"?

Not sure how this will play out but Paps FA year is coming up both when Closer looks like one of the few high profile positions with a few options in this FA year and at a time when the position of Closer is not considered with the same stature that it once had from a salary perspective. Sorta' like what is happening at DH. I also believe that the Sox will add payroll this year but I don't think JH will open the purse strings wide enough to account for some multi-million $, multi-year deal without taking some payroll from someplace.

I am happy to have Internet access and Scutaro back again. Actually I don't think Scuts numbers where that bad compared to his career numbers even going into September and his September resurgence got him on track in many ways even exceeding some career batting numbers. Unfortunately I think Scuts stuck out like earlier in the year when he had a hard time producing in clutch situations. Again in September he was one of the few guys coming through big when the chips were down. Now Scuts money looks like a bargain compared with the money Sox are throwing at guys performing way below expectation. Hard to think about Scuts in terms of a "problem" that we have to resolve when we have multiple real problems to confront.

Bringing in the pitching coach from the Rangers to manage the Sox could be interesting especially for the pitchers. I sorta' believe that it is easier for the Pitching Coach to have an impact on the pitching staff but I suppose Maddux could bring in a like minded Pitching Coach. Myself I would probably still favor Martinez as Manager. Did somebody say that the Sox list has been cut down to 15 guys now? Wish I knew who was on the list of 15 if that is what has happened.