jung

Ya' know that strike zone thing is interesting because we have had both arguments advanced in the same year....some folks have claimed it has been narrowing and others saying that it has been widening. Maybe what is really happening is that the umps are reverting to their old ways again and we are seeing more disparity from one up to the next as opposed to a real trend one way or the other.

Just as important i think the Phils believe they are pretty well set up to win it all....probably think they should have this last year. So it is a good year for them to bring in what they would hope to be a "slam the door" closer. If they don't have to use him the way the Sox had to at the end of last year, that should be what they have for the post season.

Funny how the Drew thread has generated so much "heat". Drew himself seems to stay at about the same temperature day in and day out, but he surely does draw out a lotta' "heavy weather" from the audience.

I know. The tax topic is particularly complicated both in its concept and its execution. I don't think people realize how much revenue the Yanks actually do generate and how much of a difference there is between their perspective on the tax and that of virtually every other team. The Yanks have paid as much as $26M in a given tax year and paid $18M just last year. I have spent a fair amount of time on this topic of spending because I think we tend to look at these issues of player signings in isolation without understanding that the teams themselves have overarching considerations both with regard to a specific signing and a specific tax year. We get to sit back and discuss whether Player A is worth $X or not in an absolute sense and then extend that discussion to what the teams should or should not do. However the teams simply can't function that way.

I know...saw it when I wrote it I was just to tired to change it. Notice time of entry! I will likely edit it this morning now that my eyes arn't rollin' around in my head.

Look is not a matter of not being able to compete with the Phils. The Phils are doing the same thing we did to win it all in 2007. The Phils like the Red Sox must pick and choose where and when they break the Luxury Tax threshold because they cannot afford to do otherwise. In fact I do think the Phils will break the threshold this year but since they did not break it last year, if they do break it they will pay at the lowest rate of 22.5%. However it is a worthwhile gamble because they have the horses and if they successfully fill a few key spots and stay healthy they have a great chance to win it all. The Yankees are the only team in baseball that generates enough revenue without post season revenue to disregard the tax. They have broken it four years running now and are paying at the highest rate which is 40%. The last time the Sox put themselves in position to pay the Tax at a high rate was right at the WS year of 2007....what a coincidence! The way the tax is structured, you pay at 22.5% in the first year, 30% in the second consecutive year and 40% in the third. The Sox paid at 40% in 2007 having busted the threshold three years running, and worked down to 0% for 2008. They busted the threshold again in 2009 but having been at 0% for 2008, only had to pay at the 22.5% rate for 2009. Then if you remember they postponed AGons contract signing so that it would fall in the 2011 year so that they would not be hit at the 30% rate for 2010. The point is nobody really wants to pay at the 30% or 40% rates and with one exception nobody can afford to pay that tax. So you need to manage you signings so that if you do bust the threshold you do it such that you only pay at the 22.5% rate which means you always need to at least skip one year in between years when you bust the threshold. This is not a great FA market and the Sox are not really in the kind of "all in" position that the Phils are in this year. So they do not want to bust the threshold this year when they are likely to go hard at the FA market next year because busting it this year will force them into the 30% rate for next year. They have needs that they must fill this year that will absorb every dime they have up to the threshold without signing Paps and are likely to go hard at the FA market next year. It is that simple. I don't know how guys figure that the Sox can continue to make bad signing after bad signing and then not realize that at some point it is not even any longer an argument about whether or not the next big signing might be a good signing or not. There are times when you simply can't afford to spend more money and that is the situation the Sox have gotten themselves into this year.

I just found it again. It is in post 175 if this thread which is on page 12.

I should mention that Papa agents told Cherington that they would not accept a duplicate offer from the Sox so the Sox could not have signed him for 4/50 even if they wanted to. Frankly they would have had to have been out of their minds to make Paps a offer of 4/50 plus the vesting clause which really gets it up to something like 5/60.

Rivera has better options for out pitches and there are times when he gets two strikes on you and you are just dead. Pap for the most part still has to come after you with the fastball and there are just so many times that you can rear back and just throw it harder. Eventually you run out of gas or if the opposing hitter sees enough pitches by fouling them off, the advantage can shift from the pitcher to the hitter.

Actually I am worried that Cherington is just waiting for the price on Ortiz to keep going down but I honestly do not want Ortiz at this point and if he continues to pursue Ortiz in any way shape or form then I think the chances go up considerably that they do in fact trade Ells this year. You just cannot go into the season this left handed.

If you mean starters it looks to me like we will start the year with 5 starters and I cannot see how we can improve on that under the circumstances. If somebody goes down we will have to bring somebody in either off the farm or buy somebody. I do think they will replenish the pen out of a combination of guys from last year, guys brought up and guys they get elsewhere.

Remember we need a #4 starter to slot in ahead of Aceves as well. We need a #4 starter We need a closer unless we move Bard to closer We need either two new relievers or at least one reliever and one closer if we don't move Bard there We need a RH, RF We don't need a DH as those duties will be handled by the squad in total with Lavarnway getting a oood bit of the work.

No Ortiz please and I think if we do get a RH bat to platoon in RF we can also use him in what will become a DH rotation amongst players that are playing everyday and DHing with Lavarnway getting a fair amount of work at DH plus some catching. However Cherington seems to be preparing us for signing Ortiz which means he is inclined to think he can get him even cheaper than anybody thought. Even then I don't want him but I think the Sox will because he will come so cheaply.

So what the hell were the Sox supposed to do, match 4/50 for a closer plus vesting which is really 5/60? Gimme' a break. we need to get used to the idea that there may only be one team in baseball that can try to finance a legitimate run every year and it is not us. We don't have the revenue stream to do that. Do you actually think it is some accident that the Sox busted the Luxury Tax threshold three years running around the 2007 WS. Further do you think it some chance occurrence that they worked their way all the way back down to 0% in 2009, 22.5 in 2010 and 0 again in 2011. This is a team that has to pick its spot to spend money and has to spend it wisely. They spent plenty in the years leading up to 2011 but did not spend it particularly well and now there is a penalty to pay for that. What is the penalty...basically a year where they simply cannot spend money like drunken sailors. Get over it.

There is a good chance they will miss the playoffs in 2012 but I don't expect an all out riot. As long as the team plays hard and gives itself a chance, given the money available to spend, any other course of action particularly with such slim pickings for starting pitcher would just be foolhardy. Either we deal with it or we don't.

The ones you are referring to are exactly the ones I mean jacksonianmarch. Earlier the board was all aflutter with spending big dollars and bringing in this guy and that guy and it is just not going to happen. So yes I expect Kalish to get time in RF but I actually hope they do not sign Ortiz and get somebody with a RH bat to platoon at least this year with Kalish. I expect Larvarnway to play this year. I expect some relief help from the young guys but I hope that they don't think there is a starter down there right now.

Correct E1 there is only one Mariano and Paps is not him. Less emphasis on the "devastating blow" comments would be good although it is not you making them e1. It should be clear that the Sox are not positioning themselves for one of those all in, this is the year, runs in 2012 like the Phils are and as such this is hardly a devastating blow.

I don't want to see them stick the money into Ortiz either E1 because I think they could do a better job with that money and I would prefer a RH bat. I do think this is going to be one of those situations where I unfortunately get what I wish for and we will see many more young guys on this team than even I expected. While I am not pleased with the comments on Ortiz since they just smack of "we are not spending anything this offseason I am more concerned that they must get at least a #4 starter and I don't think he is in the minor league system somewhere. I am more certain than ever that they are not going to break the Luxury Tax threshold and that immediately puts some parameters around what they can do in this offseason. If the don't sign Ortiz they have all of $24M to play with. If they do sign him they have $24M - Ortiz. It might be more likely at this point that they will trade Ells.

The comments from Cherington today suggests a much different mood from his bosses than I thought we would see. I thought there would be little spending this offseason but I did not think we would see signs that ownership is so off-put by the performance if its FO and of the FA signings that they would really put their foot down on their collective necks but now I think that is what will happen or I guess I should say is happening. Some have commented that the soccer franchise seems to be getting more attention but maybe it is performing better from top to bottom. That is the way it is in organizations with several business units. The business units that perform get the assets and the attention. Those that don't ....well don't. I am not reacting to the lack of Sox activity on Paps because I thought it a 50/50 shot at best that they would resign him and at the money the Phils were offering 50/50 fell to 0/100. However it appears clear that the Sox will not be even as active as I thought they would be in the FA market and we may see many more young guys than even I was calling for. Ownership appears to be somewhat pissed off. Now within this context it is no longer clear to me that JH was just trying to distance himself from the Crawford deal in the comments he made. I think there is the very real chance that he just did not give a s*** about Crawford's delicate state of mind. JH paid Crawford a pile of money and he came here and s*** the bed. Now those JH comments sound more like "get your f***ing s*** together *******."

Wow, I thought they were going to cheap out for this year but they may even beat my expectations for taking the spend no money route. Trying to bring back Papi makes little sense when he is just about the only vehicle they have to get at least one more RH bat in this lineup. They are making noise about signing him because he is getting nothing of interest in the FA market and they can get him cheap...I guess for this year a cheap bat is something they are interested in regardless of what side of the plate it is on. The comment about pitching is even more bizarre. They are clearly not going to bid seriously for Wilson but they can't do nothing and he can't be serious about help from the minors at least for starters. I was calling for a younger, more spirited team for 2012 since they were clearly not going to try to really retool the team this year but I think we will see more young guys that even I expected. People keep claiming that Cherington is simply trying to lower expectations with these comments of his and I agree that he is but in fact Sox actions appear to be matching his words. Hopefully they are ready to be more active between 2012 and 2013.

One thing that bothers me about the Pap signing is that Cherington was asked about Paps and progress with Paps by a reporter yesterday I think and responded that he did not think there way anything happening just yet on Pap. Makes him sound kinda' oblivious to what was happening right under his nose.

Well I like Pap for his attitude among other things but we might be criticizing him to much for his part in the end of season debacle in Baltimore and crediting him to much because he can read a calendar. The only guys we had that could throw seemingly at all at the end of last year were Pap, Aceves and Bard as he started to come back out of his swoon a bit at the end. Those three guys were exhausted by the time they got to Baltimore. The failure of the Sox to make the post season was a team failure. However how many examples of guys having big years in their contract years do we have to witness to figure out that they are playing for the contract as much as anything else.

The Sox are not left with easy choices to make or an ability to just open the wallet wide. I don't understand what people are not getting. I would rather they not be in this spot but this is what the very costly and for the most ineffective FA moves of the last couple of years do to you. To be honest I don't like some of the moves generally thought of as successful because they all served to paint this team farther and farther into the corner that they are in today. They closed off options lineup options during the season and personnel options in the off season. And for our yankee fan friend: I would not be crowing to loudly if I were a Yankee fan because all they managed to do was take double the revenue of every other major league baseball team, busting through the Luxury Tax limits like the bloated, belching deceased cow that they are and used it effectively enough to get waxed in the post season.

And: as much different as 1/16 is to 4/50 on a single year basis, when you add the vesting part of the deal which basically makes it 5/60, this deal is life changing for Paps. He now has his "set for life" deal whatever happens from here. 1/16 is a lotta' money but it is not a set for life deal. I don't think it would have mades sense for Paps to take 1/16 with a guaranteed contract worth 5/60 on the table.

But Bard mechanics fell apart later in the season in 2011 when Salty was catching the bulk of the games. Bard needed a better pitching coach...somebody that could actually help him work through his issues. I can't think of anybody that Young helped because everybody got worse through the year.