jung

Frankly I don't like either guy but that is just me. I don't think Bobby V wowed them in the interviews like they thought he would and it really does make me wonder what that is all about. The fact that these two guys are the finalists is weird. These guys are not just a shade off of each other. Maybe they share being experienced and that is about it.

Agreed 700. In effect, we can plan on Ortiz being in Boston for 2012. That moves them in a particular direction as far as the rest of the offense is concerned as well. They will not pay Ortiz $15M to sit at all so the only games he will not play are the inter-league games. Those are going to be as challenging in 2012 as they were in 2011. I don't know what that means for Youk and AGons. There is no question that they need more rest than they got in 2011.

Offering Ortiz arbitration still would seem to box the Sox in as far as offensive moves this offseason. The Sox would be incredibly lucky to come out of arbitration any better than $14-$15M for Ortiz. It is almost like they are throwing up their hands and deciding not to try to replace Ortiz bat even with something like the $14-$15M they are going to end up paying him. Smacks of another player decision with a good deal of marketing content. While finding a right hand bat for $8-$9M sounded like a challenge, there is nobody they can get for $14-$15M? No doubting that Ortiz is a popular player in Boston and a guy that puts fannies in seats. They will remain heavily weighted to the left side with no other power hitter from the right than oft injured Youk and their second baseman all be it the heaviest hitting second baseman in baseball. Probably means expect Kalish to be manning right field.

There are only snippets of info available on the new CBA and I have not had a chance to read it. However, of interest is that there is no change to the tax threshold for 2012. So. it remains at $178M for 2012 and 2013 going to $189M in 2014. However there is a significant decrease in the tax rate for the first year a team goes over the cap, down a full 5% from where it is today. That takes it down to 17.5% for a team like the Sox this year. However for a team like the Yankees on their 4th straight year over the threshold, their rate now increases to 40%. Considering when the Sox offered arb to Ortiz, the reduction in the tax rate may well be significant in the decision to offer him arb. It does more or less depend on how hard the Sox would intend going at the FA market next year and even who they go after. The compensation rules have also been changed. Maybe what offering Ortiz arbitration means is that the Sox really did not want to be pushed into offering him two years and are willing to pay money not to make that happen given the new tax rates. That would in fact at least make some sense to me as I might be able to buy into this idea of continuing to have a dedicated DH for one more year as long as they find a way to rest Youk and AGons. I don't expect those two players to suddenly be more resistant to fatigue and injury in 2012 than they were in 2011. The new CBA seems really intended to punish teams for being very irresponsible fiscally but less punishing for making decisions that might in fact appear prudent if you are smart about what you are doing. That said, I am not sure that the new rules for draft choice's are fairly weighted nor if they even make sense. A draftee can only be signed to a minor league contract in the new CBA with teams encouraged to take the best player available at the time when they pick, effectively restricting their options in the draftee market. That is the tradeoff for lowering the potential salary available to all draft picks signed. The tax is really ugly for braking the draft pick threshold, a full 75%. If the Sox are going to bust the total team threshold this year it still makes more sense to bust it big this year if they can calculate a way to get back under again for 2013. or.... They could bust it big in both 2012 and 2013 if they can plan to get back under again for 2014 and 2015 when the threshold increases. That would take them back to a 0% tax rate again. It would still be kinda' foolish to bust the threshold small in 2012 and then bust it big in 2013. The problem with planning to bust it big this year is that there just are not that many good FA available in the 2012 FA season compared to the 2013 FA season at least for starting pitchers which is likely where the Sox would want to spend money. The way the tax is structured now could mean that the Sox are back in contention for a pitcher like CJ while still signing Ortiz. In fact it might even mean that it would be foolish for them not to make a serious run at CJ. The problem with making the tax 40% for four years running over the threshold is that the Yankees are the only team potentially effected and they have not acted like they cared about the tax to this point. I think if they really wanted to do something effective they should have gone to 40%, scaling up from there eventually making the 4th year tax rate even more punishing. That would give the Yanks a chance to get back off the ledge of max taxation while finally making them pay a tax with bite if they choose to stay above the threshold. Minimum salaries for MLB players go up substantially early in the new CBA and that may have been the tradeoff for players for how draftee salaries are being treated.

I don't understand the Sox offering Ortiz arbitration either. Regardless of how it works out it just about assures that Ortiz will cost the Sox more than he is worth and more than any other team would have offered him. Ortiz had already offered that he would allow the Sox to match any offer that he received from another team. The Sox will find it near to impossible to counter the simple fact that Ortiz had produced as well or better than any other DH in 2011. Correct me if I am wrong but isn't his ranking among other 2011 DH's combined with his last year salary just about the most important elements in arbitration? It would appear to me that things that truly would have an impact on what Ortiz might be offered from another team, things like age, the fact that he can hardly be expected to play at all in the field any longer and the relative value of the position of DH are almost driven to insignificance in arbitration. This just about debunks the early rumors that the Sox had tossed 2 years at $6M per on the table. While we have been critical of the Sox manager hunt process, offering Ortiz arbitration makes the manager hunt process look like a well orchestrated stroke of genius. In addition we have had little to look at from the newly constructed FO that would give us some feeling of comfort that they were at least making progress toward becoming a solid FO. In most cases in the face of little in actual fact to go on we have had to surmise how the new FO was doing. Even Paps taking the Phils offer could only be described as an absence of action from the Sox point of view. This is the first definitive action they have taken and I don't find it at all comforting.

There are a multitude of things that might be holding things up at this point but two that come to my mind are: - Assuming Bobby V has been the candidate of choice for upper management, there is the chance that it was expected that he would come in and Wow everybody in the interview process. Maybe that just did not happen. - Another possibility is one I have been thinking about for quite some time now especially in light of some comments that maybe Bobby V could hold fort here for 4-5 years. The Sox have not been offering managers long term deals of late, a departure from the norm especially for a new manager coming in. However I don't think the Sox are overly confident in anybody they are looking at now and the sticking point might well be how many years they are willing to offer against the number of years that a new manager might want. I don't think the Sox would be currently interested in offering more than three years with club option after that and maybe even less. I would expect even a guy like Valentine, out of coaching for nine years now would want more than that. Again it could be any number of things but those two one of the two mentioned above seem the most likely to me.

Good pick up DHS. He does really remind me of Sosa...... before he started looking like the incredible hulk.

I would bet that Chen would have gotten more than 4.5 per if it was only a one year deal. Since he is staying with the same team, KC probably knows or thinks they know something about the guy that makes them comfortable with a 2 year deal. At age 34 he is to old for a long term deal. 2 years is probably as good as a guy with his portfolio was going to do.

I tend to agree. 2/9 sounds about right for pitching at those levels. $4.5 is just not going to buy much in the way of SP but I am not sure that you would expect more. He did have one complete game in 2011 and for that kind of money I was shocked that he actually even had one. 155 innings pitched was not much of a surprise either. He did take the ball 25 times in 2011. At some level I guess that is commendable for guy making $4.5M per. If the Sox were to spend the same kind of money on a guy for the back end of their rotation, I would not expect to see him with stats much different from what Chen produced. That said if Aceves is going to slot into the 5 spot I would expect the Sox to have to pay at least double what Chen got for a decent #4 SP expecting him to pitch in the AL East.

Unless I am missing something it does seem like the Guardians made out pretty good on this deal. Got at least a bit of a home town discount it seems.

I had noticed for a long time now that Valentine does have an uncanny knack for looking down his nose at the world in a way that appears purposefully intended to be as condescending as possible. Sometimes a person can be unintentionally condescending and with others you would swear they stand in the mirror trying to perfect their technique. I would associate Bobby V with the latter and not the former. In reality whatever impact Bobby V has on us and the media hardly makes a dimes worth of difference. The impact he has on the team and the FO may be a different matter.

A starter going deep into games is for the most a factor of his ability to stay out of trouble and not give up runs well into the later innings of the game. Given the very high likelihood that the Sox won't be seriously in the hunt in the FA, SP high rent district this off season, I find it unlikely that whoever they bring in to round out the rotation will give the BP much help from the perspective of oft getting past the 7th inning and may even have trouble getting out of the 6th. So I think that means that we would like to see Jenks turn into something besides a total waste and will still need more help to round out the BP.

Somebody that was following the Mets closer than I was in those years might be able to answer this. I am trying to remember but I think the Mets were making a serious run at the time and had brought in players looking to fill holes in consecutive years up to the year the Mets sort of folded up (the 2002 season) and Valentine was let go. Would it be fair to say that the team Valentine was managing underwent considerable personnel change up to and including that last year leaving Valentine with some new guys in his clubhouse, guys that were not responsive to Valentine? or: Would that be an overstatement? I am asking because while I seem to remember a good deal of change to that team during that time, I really don't trust my memory of it and I could be totally wrong.

The more I think about this Theo compensation question the more I begin to narrow this down to a particular issue. I had posted weeks ago that it appeared that the last practical opportunity that a team has to restrict the movement of FO personnel like Theo is at the point of agreeing to allow the team desirous of his services to talk to him. Once that horse is out of the barn, your leverage in these compensation discussions is much reduced, maybe even zero. I am not more cognoscente of how things work in MLB than the Sox are. Hence they had to know that. However as we have discussed before, they really were not that interested in Theo staying. Unlike the Tito situation, I do think the Theo situation was some parts Theo wanting to leave and some parts JH and LL being willing to see him go. Clearly the time to discuss what possible options Chicago was willing to offer to Boston was before the Sox allowed the discussion between Theo and the Cubs to take place. I think the Sox did not want to put much in the way of a road block in front of the Cubs and did not insist on having the discussion they should have had at that point. That is probably the thorn in the side of the Sox in trying to get what they want for Theo in terms of compensation now. I am sure that the Sox want Chicago and the Commissioner (once involved) to look at this from the perspective of Theo's perceived value to Chicago. However in easing the path for Theo to Chicago it leaves the Commissioner in a position to argue that the Sox must not have put much stock in the future value of Theo in their organization or they would have put more emphasis on the issue of compensation at the last point of having any practical leverage in the matter. Frankly the Commish would be right in that regard. The Sox neither wanted to offer Theo more time in the form of a contract extension nor did they really want him working out the last year of his contract as a lame duck GM. Once he gets into this the Commish will deemphasis the value of Theo in an absolute sense and likely argue behind closed doors that the Sox can't have their cake and eat it too. Unless Theo is being paid some astronomical amount for league presidents generally, I think it will be hard for the Sox to make any case that will result in a player or prospect that they want out of this whole Theo tussle.

I know folks have expressed concerns that BC will be marginalized based on a Valentine hiring or as much as anything because of the way Bobby V is being hired. I think that horse has already left the barn. In the space of a few weeks time it appears to me that upper management has already marginalized BC to the point of absurdity. I would be shocked if he ever makes it back from the abyss. If the Sox fail to corral Valentine, whoever they do get, BC will feel like he is boxed because it has become so obvious that if you want something done, you need to go to LL. Ultimately I have to believe player agents will only give BC a passing glance on the way to LL's office. "How ya' doing BC. Hay, can you bring me a cup a' coffee".

Not saying that you have tossed your hat squarely in the "they have already made bold moves" camp since you have defined the point as Arguable. Honestly though, I think it would be hard to even argue for a case that you can characterize the moves the Sox have made so far as "bold". Theo was going to be left with one year on his contract if the Sox did not extend it. Leaving Theo with one year left on his contract would not have been a good situation for anybody including Theo. However, Theo clearly had nowhere to go here in Boston. He was not going to move into LL's job and I don't even think Theo would want it based on the way LL has done it. So I really find it hard to call "letting him leave" a bold move. They could not really extend his contract and all parties would have had difficulty with leaving him in place especially at the point where a new Manager was going to come to town. Tito's bed was made for him when they did not exercise his option at the start of the 2010-2011 season making him a lame duck and just about assuring his departure in the process. I guess they might have extended his contract at the end of the year if the team had performed either up to snuff or beyond expectations. However, there is no question that the FO made Tito's job harder by leaving him a lame duck from the start of the season. All by way of saying, I don't see how letting Tito go qualifies as a bold move. In fact in trying to make the whole thing look like a mutual decision, the Sox FO took the gutless route even in the way Tito departed. As for the Pitching Coach, if capitol punishment were an option for Pitching Coaches, Young was well in line for that one. Can't call letting him go a bold move especially in light of the fact that the Manager was already gone by then. Strength and Conditioning Coach...I would characterize that move as cowardly as opposed to bold and an effort to deflect blame from the players who are in a very real sense responsible for their conditioning in MLB unlike a pro sport like Football for example. Medical staff.....has been a joke in Boston since Tom Yawkey was around. I don't understand why it has been so difficult to keep a competent Medical Staff in place in one of the world's great medical centers. I can only guess but my guess would be that there has been a tradition of taking the med staff for granted here and maybe the Sox have historically underpaid. I would consider busting the Luxury Tax Threshold this year a bold move. So far they have shown no inclination to do that but I would consider that a bold move under the circumstances. I might consider hiring Valentine a bold move not so much for his reputation for keeping players in line but because he has become something of a polarizing figure over the years. I think if they do hire Valentine it will not take much time for the audience to either herald it as a great success or judge it an unmitigated failure. I don't see much middle ground here. Hence I might consider that a bold move. I would actually say that more than boldness, the Sox FO is going to have to exhibit courage and cleverness this offseason. they were certainly clever in the way they exercised the loophole in the lax rules when they delayed signing AGons. That was a clever move and I think they will have to be very clever this offseason. I think they will have to exhibit courage as well because this looks so much like a year of damned if they do and damned if they don't. I don't think they will be able to keep more than 49% of the audience happy regardless of what they do. I am not saying that is business as usual around here either. It is indicative of the corner they have painted themselves into. However if the predicament they are in results in brain-lock and an inability to take any sort of recognizable position, they will disappoint 100% of the audience. They must have the courage take positions and to accept relatively low approval ratings for the positions that they do take.

Which is why Theo finally got fed up and realized he had nowhere to go in Boston. Not only could Theo not move up into LL's job, he could not keep LL from moving down to mess with his job. BC is in the same boat only to an even higher order of magnitude. However I still think LL has more rope than people will tend to think. LL has gotten away with being LL for a long time now and I don't think any of us really understand either the genesis of or the depth of his power base within the Fenway organization. Some of it clearly stems from he fact that he does JH's dirty work for him. But it is more than that. Michael Holly recently released a book based on Bellichek and the Pats called War Room basically about the draft process and about relationships within the Pats FO. I have a sneaking suspicion that Bellichek and the Pats FO is not nearly as interesting a topic as LL and the Sox FO relationships would be. I don't know what I would call that book though....maybe Machiavelli Meets the Hit and Run.

I am not sure that piece did much more than give the author a chance to spout off but I am not even sure what he was spouting off about. Does he not like the fact that Tito is gone? Well it was Tito's time. Get over it. The most we could complain about there is that we just can't seem to let a manager go without tar and feathering him along the way. That I don't like. As for not offering Tito an option at the end of the year, the author's timing is way off. The problem was that Tito was not offered an option at the start of the year. Once we got to year end, the handwriting was on the wall. Does he not like the fact the Theo is gone? Theo needed some room to breath. He was going nowhere here and it simply does not matter anymore whether he did a good job or bad. It was his time to move on as well. I have been very critical of the process as well but mainly because of the way Cherington was used or should I say abused. Once again the author does not seem to understand what has actually happened here. You can tell when the news is not providing much fodder. Things get slow here on the forum and the Boston media boys really start reaching for something to print.

Interesting...I had thought about the possibility of Tito getting canned over the start just for a few days as the ugly start was upon us and then completely forgot that I had been wondering about it at that time. Ended up so traumatized by the result of the 2011 season that I had not thought about the 2011 start in the context of how the 2009 and 2010 had gone and Tito until you jogged my memory banks. Frankly it had been the last thing on my mind of late Sox-wise since Tito is gone anyway. We need to get those guys from that movie The Adjustment Bureau to work on removing Tito about 15 games into the 2011 season to see what our result would have been. Very rare for the manager to be canned part way through a regular season in baseball. Much more common in the other three major team pro sports.

I had not thought about this until this very minute. But managers have been fired during the season before. It happens in baseball, all kinds of pro sports. Clearly the Sox were not ready to start the season when the calendar said it was time to start. I wonder what would have happened to the 2011 season if Tito had been fired early while the season start debacle was on. Would the team have gotten the message that this s*** was not going to fly? Would the slide into oblivion been avoided? We will never know but it would not have been the first time that a season start that bad had gotten a manager fired. Not sure the end result would have been worse than it was.

I think the only way that Theo could work something out that would recover some of Z's tarnished reputation is if he had Z making the effort to talk to players and coaches in the offseason. Problem is I am not sure Z is capable of a heartfelt apology or even be capable of making "I will never be a rat-fink teammate again " statement that anybody will take seriously. I think if Z just went off for the remainder of the offseason for rest and relaxation intending to try to pull that off in spring training when it will be convenient for him, I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell of either Z or Theo getting anywhere. Theo can still probably get something for Z from a team with a need with a manager that thinks he can get the most out of that player.

Ya' know I really do wonder about that. LL has a particular set of "qualities" that I bet JH would find hard to replace. Not saying that they are qualities that everybody would find admirable in President. I do think he is in JH's crosshairs but with way more rope than you would think.

I actually enjoyed seeing that article. The common view is that the Boston media is either completely owned by club management or outrageously antagonistic towards the clubs. That actually looked like something that could have been written in Boston. So I enjoyed it more for the media slant than the Theo slant. That said I could definitely see a Chicago guy going off the deep end about Zambrano. I did not follow that whole Zambrano mess closely enough while it was happening but on the surface that did look as close to breech of contract as anything a player could pull.

Don't get the wrong idea OP. Nobody is trying to be unkind or terse. There is literally no way to answer this question at this time.

I don't think anybody questions who would hire a manager in the Red Sox organization and I think continually suggesting that folks are misjudging Charington in that regard is a misread. The fact is, Charington was assigned the task of running a process designed to forward a candidate or candidates for the managers job, not to hire the manager. However the more we find out about that process the more it appears to have either been nothing more than a charade or a assignment given to Charington without adequate support information, parameters or priorities. Either way it achieved the same result, a waste of time with Charington basically left to look foolish and possibly left looking like he was outside of the loop. Since there has been something of a backlash the Sox FO has once again been left backpedaling, something it has done quite a bit of lately. This time they are trying to recover some of Charington's tattered and burnt remains. That is not working out so far because no matter how you cut it, Sveum never should have gotten to a second interview. That was the straw that broke the came's back as far as Charington being left to look somewhat foolish.