jung

Two years puts the onus on both the players and the manager witch is the only way anything works these days. It may well be short enough for V to recognize that it will be very easy for the players to crash and burn his regime if he is just off the wall. The Sox could easily can V in one year if they don't like what is happening. On the other hand, two years is long enough so that if V and the players get off on the right foot, they could together erode away at the stench that was left in that clubhouse after this season. While you can change the way things are from day 1 it generally takes longer than that to take the stain away to the point where the clubhouse is not the lounge anymore but is instead the workplace. It seems to me, that the team began to treat that clubhouse like an old comfy couch that they could sink into and that was hard to get up out of once you had your butt well planted there. That clubhouse needs to be a good solid straight back wooden chair but it does not need to leave you with slivers every time.

Agreed....I can't see letting LL off the hook as easily as some would like. To many of those moves smack of something LL would do. Even this manager move to some extent suggests things are about the same. Would Theo have forwarded Sveum as his top choice for manager? Yes. Did BC forward Sveum as his top choice for manager? Yes. Would the Sox have hired Sveum if Theo had brought him forward? No. Did the Sox hire Sveum after BC brought him forward? No. Would either BC or Theo have brought V forward? Not in your lifetime or mine. Why wouldn't BC forward a guy like V? Because V is strong willed, vocal and insistent on getting his way. That puts BC in a very difficult spot, boxed by two guys both cut from the same cloth....a tough spot for a guy that does not feel like he has enough autonomy in the first place. Why wouldn't Theo forward a guy like V? Substitute Theo for BC in the answer above.

I had thought about that the last few days myself. How does letting Paps walk and then committing through arb to paying Ortiz $14M per make sense? I would guess that the Sox would argue that in Paps case it was the term and not the per year and I think that is in fact the difference. At certain player ages and for certain positions at any age, the Sox are very sensitive to term. Even if they are now planning based on spending more money this year than might have been considered earlier, if I had a vote I would probably vote to let Bard have his shot at closing mainly for the reasons I mentioned earlier. Even with a number of closers in this year's FA market the Sox are not likely to get a guy that is truly better but will instead just end up with a guy that costs them more money.

The title of this thread is who will be manager. The Sox have become a team where titles don't seem to mean very much. We have a sports organization in this town that has changed over from a laughing stock to a very solid, well run sports business....the Boston Bruins. That said at least from the outside looking in LL seems light years away from Cam Neely. Maybe they each know as much about the sports that they participate in but the tone they set within their organizations appears entirely different. The biggest difference might be that the Jacobs family has hired intelligently and now just seems to provide their guys a budget but lets them run the team. I would guess that even that budget is based in large part on the information that comes up to them from the organization. Not sure that JH can keep out of things the way Jacobs does and I would have a hard time thinking that LL can function within an organization the way Cam does. The Sox can surely still be successful without having a well oiled machine as an organization, but if they do aspire to being a well oiled machine, the current Bruins provide as good a model as any.

There are all kinds of babble including media babble. Talking about Valentine in terms of some kind of a drill sergeant is a different kind of babble. Have not heard that to much here but have heard it. Much has changed in the nine years since V has been in a dugout. Players with contracts have the control in this league, not managers. It was headed that way when V went out the door in NY but the pendulum has swung way over that way since then. I would guess that the right tone for V going in would be about 2 notches down from the old V which would be about 4 notches more demanding than Tito ever was.

Not giving Bard a shot at closing is interesting as most of the young guns that end up closing come up through an organization like Bard has done. If you go out to get a guy that is young and has come up through somebody else's organization you end up paying way more money for him than you should be. The same is true of somebody that has closed already but has proven to be....lets say middling at best. You usually end up paying to much money for him. I think there are to many people talking for the Sox right now. This guy has his opinion, that guy has that opinion...none of them are on the same page and none of them can shut up. We tend to blame the media for what...for reporting what these big mouths keep saying....isn't that sort of their job? Who knows, maybe when the babble stops Bard will have his shot at closing. That is still probably what they should do because that still makes the most sense at this point but who can tell anymore. Letting Paps go was the right thing to do...I am not sure they did it for what I would consider the right reasons but it was the right thing to do. Not allowing Bard his shot does not make sense but I guess can be done as long as they get somebody and talk to Bard instead of just leaving him to draw his own conclusions about what the F just happened. The problem is they are not likely to get a better closer than Bard but will end up paying way more money for one.

That is the gamble with V. Can he get this team to come around without alienating the players that are truly entitled by their long term, big money, guaranteed contracts. The fact that V has teeth and will actually try to pack some players off to Buffalo sounds great all the way up until V actually forces the FO to decide to pack somebody off. You never get value back for a player you are trying to off.

I am not sure what to think about Bard. The story last year was that his mechanics fell apart. Now he does not have the guts to close. Apparently he had the guts to close when Cherington commented on him earlier. However that comment came before the new CBA was in place. I suspect this is as much a reaction to the Sox feeling like they have more money to spend combined with the availability of closers in this year's FA market. Getting a closer out of the FA market is fine by me. As I mentioned earlier if the Sox are not going to have Bard close thats fine, However, they better talk to the player especially if he is left with the impression that the FO does not think he has the guts to close. If you think about it some of what the Sox implied they were doing with this team based on FO comments has changed since the new CBA became a reality. That is actually encouraging because it also implies that they are using their heads. I do believe that each team is different because each team is in a different situation. In my view you can't judge one team by what another team might be willing to do. The Sox are not where the Phils are right now and nobody is ever where the Yanks are regardless of the year.

Fortunately closers are out there in the FA market this year and that might in fact make it good sense to leave Bard where he is. If the Sox do not allow Bard to close then I think they should sit down with him and explain that they believe the spot they have him in is extremely important as unless they talk to him I think he will feel like he is stagnating with the Sox. Everybody believes he has been being groomed as closer. If they pass over him now and bring in a guy, they need to have the good sense to talk to the player or they risk losing him. Frankly, the Sox have not been very good at communicating lately nor understanding where they are either with a player or anywhere else for that matter. For those interested in the money end of things if you go to the "your perfect off season" thread, now on page 2 of "Talk Sox", we go through the money commitments. I am of the mind that given the changes to luxury tax rates in the new CBA that the Sox are likely to be willing to go over the tax cap this year and I think offering Ortiz arbitration is a good indication of that willingness.

I have been seeing reports that the contract for V is two years with a team option year for a third. Probably as far as the Sox were willing to go and the minimum V would be willing to accept. Probably about right.

I do wonder to what extent V or any other manager can "muscle up" on a player and bend him as opposed to manipulating him to get the most out of him. Pro sports has changed alot' in the last few years. Most of the change has occurred during the period V has been on the sidelines. It has gotten to the point now where even NHL coaches have had to change. The NHL is a league in a sport where you spend eighty-two games with your head on a swivel, where there are no soft surfaces like the cushy grass of Fenway and where not manning up will likely get you called out publicly and identified as a pussy. Political correctness has not even caught on yet in the NHL. Even there, players now have to be to an extent "coddled". If not the coach losses them and before long it is the coach that is gone...that is after a bushel barrel of losses. I simply no longer think you can say things like "well he will certainly straighten that bunch of lunkheads out". There is just to much money at stack in pro sports now. Coaches would do well to take a trip to Hollywood and get some idea of what directors go through trying to get their stars to not walk off the set over an inflamed and painful hangnail. Pro sports are entertainment in every sense now. If I had to guess, I would agree with those that have commented here that for a short time anyway, a V might be the right medicine, I would also suggest that V is more like radiation therapy and less like vitamins. If you have a problem he could be the cure. No question we have a problem here.

If the FO does not think Bard can close and won't give him a chance to start where does that put him?

One thing people are forgetting about the money the Sox are committed to for this year is that the money for Crawford and AGons goes up dramatically 2012 over 2011. AGons goes from $6.5M to $21M in 2012 and Crawford goes from $15M to $20M. So if you are using the 2011 numbers as a benchmark, AGons and Crawford alone eat up about $20M between the two of them. Folks tend to subtract the Paps, Drew, Wake and Tek money forgetting that changes to AGons and Crawford salary eat up a big portion of that.

I do think that both LL and V appear to be strong willed, opinionated, used to getting their way. At the end of the day, they may both end up happy that BC occupies a spot effectively between the two of them. Not sure how happy BC is going to be about that.

Whether they want his input or not they will definitely get it. Bobby V has an opinion on everything and will share it every chance he gets.

Stunning isn't it? It took a long time for the full weight of the damage from the concept of guaranteed contracts to finally manifest themselves so completely. Surely the early days of MLB, before the first CBA and the way teams could contractually obligate a player only to one team were unjust at best. However in my view the pendulum had swung completely over to the other side.

I have a hard time with the "logic" of these rules that the Sox seem to have with regard to FA signings, length of term, age and type of player. In the first place, they don't seem to prevent anything. The Sox have had some pretty ugly FA deals of late, with regard to length of contract and injury...Lackey and dice-k come to mind. So I am not sure that having what seems to be hard and fast rules in some cases really saves the Sox anything. That said, like it or not, there are some things they simply will not consider and multi-year deals past even 2 years for closers seems to be one of them. I cannot argue in favor of these rules that the Sox have but it is clear that they do have them. They are an almost constant topic for discussion in the media and here and the subject was certainly discussed with regard to Paps and the Sox unwillingness to even consider a long term deal for him. I am not saying that the Sox should definitely have tried to compete for him either. I am just saying that they should look at each player individually instead of applying this rule that does not seem to have a statistical basis.

They could likely justify going over the cap limit in both 2012 and 2013 but would want to get back under again in 2014 when the cap limit goes up to $189M. The 3rd year in a row over the cap limit is painful from a tax rate perspective and now a 4th year is really painful under the new CBA (40%). If they went over in both 2012 and 2013, going over in 2014 would make 3 years in a row. Based on history I believe the Sox would avoid that.

I don't understand why you would refer to Paps situation in this particular case. What difference did it make. I think the Sox made it pretty clear that they were not going to offer 4 years. So Paps view of the Sox organization does not seem to be relevant here. The Sox were not going to offer 4 years/$50M much less 5 years/$60M and the Phils did. Under the circumstances, the Red Sox could have looked like Lufthansa Airlines to Paps and it would not have mattered one way or the other. While not being a rule Occam's razor is a good guide and could well be applied here...."avoid stacking information to prove a theory if a simpler explanation proves the observations" or "wherever possible substitute constructions of known entities for inferences to unknown entities". Hell use Ells if you want to use a player that will likely be gone because he has issues with the Sox organization because when the time comes I think you will have a very sound argument with regard to Ells.

I guess I would say that signing Ortiz for $14M just about insures that they will go over the LT cap for 2012 at least in my view. The Sox have to many needs beyond Ortiz or any bat for that matter. I don't think it is possible for them to stay under the limit if they are going to pay $14M just for Ortiz. I think that the Sox have probably put together a budget at this point and they very likely know if they intend going over the LT cap limit or not. To some extent going over depends on whether or not you sign the players that you are after. In my opinion at this point, the Sox would be planning on going over the LT cap limit. Offering arbitration to Ortiz is a strong indication of that intention. We will know for sure if and when the Sox make a move for a big FA signing. For example an offer to either Buehrle or CJ combined with arbitration for Ortiz will just about put them over the limit and there is so much more they will need to do beyond two players of that calibre. If they move Bard to the rotation they need a closer. They need two more relief pitchers as well. So if they do get the arbitration deal for Ortiz and get somebody like Burhrle or CJ, I would bet they would be right at or over the cap limit at that point. So even if they get them at bargain prices you would have to think they would be sinking at least another $12M-$15M into a closer and two more relief pitchers. Maybe the two relief pitchers becomes one relief pitcher and a swing man capable of starting on occasion. If they try to get another decent bat add maybe $8M to $12M to that. So a rough guess based on that combination of players puts them anywhere from $12M to $25M over the cap. That qualifies as busting the limit big in my book. Once committed to Ortiz the options are probably something like what I have above or trade and a 2012 downgrade as a means of staying below the cap. I don't think that makes sense. Why commit to Ortiz and then trade and downgrade? I don't think they can put together a combination of players that makes trade and upgrade a tangible option. Much guess work in this but all I can do at this point.

Roger your thread might get incorporated into an existing thread. You won't have any trouble finding it if one of the moderators does that. The Red Sox have so many left handed bats for one thing and very few power hitters that bat from the right side of the plate. So there is that. Ortiz can no longer play in the field so he can only be a DH. While Ortiz is the best DH based on his 2011 performance it is a good deal to pay for guy that can only DH. This puts a degree of stress on the team in general as well. They would like to allow some of their other star players to be the DH in some games allowing them a degree of rest. If the Sox pay a good deal for Ortiz, they will really have to play him in just about every game where he is able and that means the Sox will not be able to use the DH position to rest some of the other players. There is his age as well. That said everybody is comfortable with signing him for one year and maybe two. However the news is that he is asking for three and most think there is little interest in signing him for three years. The Sox appear willing to pay him more than the going rate for a one year contract and that is likely why they offered him arbitration. If I were a betting man I would say that it is likely that Ortiz will stay in Boston. In offering arbitration, the Sox have certainly now expressed a good deal of interest in keeping him.

Wonder how the Sox will handle the assistant coach signings. Could be the first place where we get a glimpse of how V, LL and BC work together. I could easily see V wanting complete autonomy and LL unwilling to give it to him. Whatever happens, this year will not lack for interesting stuff to watch. Hopefully the baseball will be just as interesting.

Unfortunately I think all of this recent stuff about "the decision being BC's" has been backpedaling to try to make up for the original error. There are times when the Sox would just do better to let it go as they often just dig a deeper hole for themselves. Saying that it is BC's decision at this point is kinda' transparent and it will be hard to maintain that position against the ever inquisitive press. As soon as there is any evidence to the contrary the media will be all over this story again and on and on it will go. At this point they would be better served letting BC do some of the things that ARE clearly within his responsibility even if that means they risk some in giving him some rope with regard to player signings. However I think that makes more sense than trying to maintain this facade. Let him handle some things that should be a GM's job without having LL hang over him like a vulture waiting to feed. In my view that would do much more to accomplish what they are trying to accomplish by now maintaining that the manager decision is his.

Once you take concern for the 2012 LT cap out of the equation, presuming your bottom line will support it, the real concern in my view becomes planning the expenditures so that you are back under the limit again no later than 2014. So I would have to make some guesses about the AAV commitments for 2014 against the limit to come up with a number. The numbers coming off the books are as important as the numbers coming on. Not sure I could do a very good job at that because I would have to make a large number of assumptions but I will create a spread sheet when I get a chance and toss some numbers around. I would bet they could get relief help if that is what you are concerned with and a closer assuming Bard goes to the rotation. There are closers in this year's FA market. As long as they can get either Buehrle or CJ I am OK with the inherent risk involved in trying Bard in the rotation. How sweet would it be if Bard actually turned out to be a CJ that we already owned!

Yea $100M for him says bring on Buehrle. He will not command a number like that. Not to say there are no starters that can get $100M but CJ just has not proven it to me as yet. I am willing to bet he will get it from somebody though. Geez I lost track of everything over the holiday. I gotta' get back into some web sites and catch up.