jung

Miami went after Madson once already this offseason and he rejected their offer whatever it was. Although maybe they are happy with their pitching moves having landed Buehrle.

Yea but they signed CJ on the same day, That is a wow for them. I hope this does not get Miami revitalized about Madson again. Miami seems determined not to let anybody one up them for very long this off season. Not sure they can really respond to the kind of day the Angels had.

Any idea what lit the fire under the Angels this year? Seems much more impressive than one would have expected for them.

I was not talking about Japan. That whole dice thing had a degree of mystery and oh-ah appeal to it that does not accompany the normal pitcher signing. Frankly I don't think there is much of a chance that Darvish ends up here but the Sox love those oh-ah deals.

Like I said a few months ago...if they can be a scratchy tough team that comes out and plays in every game, given everything that has happened I can be OK with that. Beckett is not helping matters complaining about V's comments regarding Beckett's time between pitches even though V made those comments as an analyst. When will Beckett just learn to shut up and pitch. Seems to me that Beckett is beginning to make it impossible for him to stay. Maybe that is what he wants....out!

I don't think the Sox will be in the running for Darvish whether V likes him or not. I suspect it will be more about whether LL likes the PR value-of Darvish even more than he liked the PR value of dice. With dice we got the juice about his interpreter and the posting fee...blah blah blah. Now the Sox have V, and the PR they can generate from having a manager that actually speaks the language and understands how a Japanese pitcher wants to work. How much PR can they spin out of that? Can't you see it? V heads out to the mound and both V and Darvish bow to each other before and after the mound discussion. Pure PR gold!

A handshake agreement is no longer something a team has to work out with a player relative to arbitration. However I don't know if that is one of the rules that is going to be implemented mid-year next year or now. That last I saw, there was going to be something of a half of the new and half of the old formula for dates of implementation of the new compensation and arbitration rules. With end June beginning July 2012 being the date period when all of the new rules will be implemented. Does anybody have anything on the new arbitration stuff and when it is officially implemented? Is it one of the new rules that comes in now or is it one of them that is being left for mid year 2012? I have not seen a list yet of the breakdown but somebody else might have.

There are some new arb rules in the new CBA but there is no telling which of those will be implemented now and which at the July 1, 2012 mark. I don't think they have as yet completely determined which new rules will fall where just yet.

If you really want to think about how frustrating the Crawford deal must have been for JH, think about this. The Sox were over the 2011 LT budget by what looks like $4.2M. That last minute deal for Crawford cost them at least $15M against the 2011 LT cap and in fact more. So had they not signed Crawford even with all the other bogus...not workin' out signings, they would have been below the cap for 2011. Since they were below in 2009, but above for 2010, getting back to below for 2011 would have meant that if they did go over this year, their rate would have been 17.5% instead of 30% and if they went over this year and stayed over for next year they would max out next year at 30% and could look forward to the threshold going up to $198M for 2014. When you look at it that way, the Crawford signing was likely very painful to JH, certainly worse than we would have been considering. Is it any wonder that it appears to be the straw that broke the camel's back?

Actually I did not catch all of the comments but the one I heard was "I hate the Yankees". I don't have any problem with that one. I would love for the Sox to go into Yankees games believing that their manager had cut a check that they had to make good. Maybe they need to feel like their opponents want to hand them their heads. That might help keep them honest which with few exceptions they have not been of late.

I actually thought for a time that the one silver lining in the Ortiz arbitration gambit was that it indicated a willingness to go ahead and ignore the tax for this year and posted as such in this forum, maybe in this thread. However the media has been blasting away at the whole tax issue of late and the source for the information has been attributed to the Sox themselves. No I don't think this is some clandestine move to sneak up on the league and spend a bunch of money. At some point this all becomes a done deal and there is nobody left to spend much money on anyway. Guys are being sucked up pretty fast now. The later it gets the more i am inclined to think what we will see is more trade moves than FA moves in an effort to trade salary for salary.

I know that the way the Sox have tossed money around it would seem an insignificant issue. However it should be clear by now that the brass has made it an issue and in reality at these higher rates all you need do is get over by $10M and you are tossing $4M down a rat hole. Go four years in a row at $10M over you are taxed at 50% and toss another $5M down a rat hole. If you look at the Sox free cash flow for 2011 as projected in March of 2011, they were headed for not even breaking even at the bottom line for that year. This without figuring the luxury tax into account. So it might appear that tossing $4M and $5M around would be easy but if you are not breaking even at the bottom line even tossing $1M in luxury tax is irresponsible. They have had great years of generating income up till recently but what you did last year or three years ago never matters in business. That is all done...everybody received their bonuses based on that performance and it is all about what you did this year and what you are going to do next year. Right now their expenditure commitments are outrunning their ability to generate enough revenue and more importantly net income and until they can get that turned around I don't see JH allowing them to toss money back at the league in the form of luxury tax payments at rates like $40% and $50%. I do think JH is trying to make a point with his organization as well and I can't fault him for that. While the actual $ figure was pretty insignificant in 2010 based on only going over by #1.5M, the fact that his organization did not manage a $160M payroll such that they found a way to divert that $1.5M which would have staved off Year 1 over the threshold was mismanagement and slovenly business in the first place. I can fault him for letting it get this far out of control. Ya' gotta' believe his plan had been to manage their revenue and their net income fairly closely. If he really wanted to go balls to the walls he would have built a new stadium long ago. He decided to take a different path but did not get his organization to stay on that path of managed revenue growth and equivalent net income performance and the penalty for that appears to be that JH has lost confidence in his organization's ability to be fiscally responsible and he is not going to open the purse strings until he is satisfied that his organization understands that and toes the line. The Red Sox are a business and JH is acting like a business man would act. I also suspect that JH was not the kind of owner that planned on owning the Sox till they put him in the grave like Mr. S just south of us. If that was the way JH wanted to go again I expect he would have built a new stadium long ago. No I think in JH's case the plan has been to own the Sox for a time and then sell it off at a huge return on his investment. Screwy fiscal performance might have created a problem for a likely exit strategy time line for JH as well and that might have him pissed off to boot. At any rate, while I think he would do well to keep his mouth shut, things like his public comments about CC's signing are clear indications of his anger and frustration.

Unfortunately I think you are just really reaching here. This is an insanely bad blunder with no redeeming qualities to be found.

I know we are disappointed as fans and are likely to direct our criticism at JH for not being willing to spend more money but I think if we do criticize JH he might be do such treatment for allowing this situation to get so far out of hand without holding LL's feet to the fire and then to some extent baseball operations as well. As one of our other esteemed posters suggests, resources in the form of money is the one advantage the Sox have over most other teams but unfortunately the Sox have mismanaged that resource. Unless you are the Yankees with their revenue stream, going over the LT tax cap three years running is simply irresponsible. The Sox had ample opportunity to manage their resources such that they did not end up in this mess and they just did not do it. This is particularly true of 2010 when they were over by a measly $1.5M. They should have avoided going over in 2010 and could easily have done that. Going over by 4 million in 2011...heck there are a few moves they could have made to have avoided that but they didn't. It was certainly more difficult in 2011 than it was in 2010 and if they had not gone over in 2010 they would only now be considering their second year over the cap limit and not be as screwed as they are now. While they are not as broke as the Mets are, they have almost been as fiscally irresponsible as the Mets have been. As such I cannot fault JH for turning off the tap. The Sox bottom line fiscal performance for 2011 did not look very promising. The Sox have spent to much money. They have spent it foolishly on players that simply were luxuries in many cases. They have done so while building a team that is not well balanced and has no depth. Kind of ironic considering it is now the luxury tax limit that they confront. I would do the same if my President and my Baseball Operations had been as irresponsible as this bunch has been.

Of course we probably all realize that since the LT cap limit does not go up for 2013, we are likely screwed for that year as well as 2012 unless we are willing to trade salary to bring in salary.

Although the bill has not come in yet for the 2011 season the more recent calculations for LT purposes have the Sox over the threshold for 2011 by about $4M. So they were over the 2010 LT cap by about $1.5M and appear to be over the 2011 cap by $4.2M. So they are surely screwed as I doubt JH is going to allow them go go over three years running and bet taxes at the 40% rate. I seriously think the Sox should consider moving Youk at this point. Now that they are getting Ortiz like him or not, there is no means to rest Youk who can no longer make it through the grind of the 162. While Youk is past his ability to draw big value he can be used to fill some of the obvious holes on this team. Once again though we are confronted by the lunacy of keeping Ortiz because Youk was our only real power bat from the right side other than maybe Peddey.

I would love to have been a fly on the wall to listen how the Sox came to the decision to offer Ortiz arbitration. That was so obviously a bad bad move. How the hell did that discussion go? When you line up all of the things that would have spoken against offering him arb I just don't see how you end up ignoring all of that or not acknowledging it or whatever the hell they did to get there. I won't post up the entire list of negatives a) because it would be a repeat and because the list is so damn long. Although that said, I fail to understand why most of us simply fail for the most part to recognize that Ortiz is now at an age where he can turn into a pumpkin just any time, much like fighters that literally age 10 years within the rounds of one fight, right before your eyes....one of the saddest things in sports just as an aside. What would be on the other side of the ledger? - Had a great year in 2011 - proven great clutch hitter - team leader particular for any of the other latin guys (a bit questioned after 2011) - if we don't sign him somebody else in the AL east will (I hate this one worse than anything cause it is such a knee jerk fan reaction which is fine for fans but a pretty silly rationalization for a FO) Frankly that is it from a pure baseball perspective. But now lets look at this the way I content the Sox always now look at these things. - BIg name hitter that can put up flashy numbers - Will bring people to the park, especially fans from the latin community - generally good PR guy "Big name" being the most relevant from a Sox perspective. We so rarely see the good FO move that brings us a solid player that may not be flashy but gives you a solid day's work day in and day out. That is why this team has no depth and is jam packed with aging stars that are either brittle or prone to fatigue with nothing backing them up. While we blame Cherington now much like we blamed Theo before, they are a product of the same problem. Neither one had the horsepower within the FO to change the approach to team building that the Sox have adopted at least since 2007 and maybe even earlier than that. Show me a GM that cares about how 'Big" the name is for a player he is considering and I will show you a GM that is being run by the business side of the house and not given enough autonomy within the baseball operations side and that describes the Red Sox.

Now it is official. He has accepted. Just great. Maybe Ortiz has a career in the FO.

While it is true that Ortiz may not accept arbitration he has us over a barrel. A 37 year old DH that can't play in the field has us over a barrel. He either takes arbitration or out of desperation we offer him two years at something $9-$10 per to avoid the one year at $14-$15 per. Maybe this team needs a year of being smacked silly. It might knock some sense into their heads.

If my recent posts appear somewhat caustic it is because I am in a caustic mood. We who are not paid to do any of this stuff have been talking about this LT cap subject for months now. I have to plead guilty to having gotten the 2010 numbers wrong. I did not go back and actually check the final numbers for that season and went with numbers posted by several media guys that were having pretty detailed discussions about the LT caps and teams above and below. That said apparently in 2010 they did not stay below the cap busting it by a stinking lousy $1.5M. I would have done everything in my power to have avoided doing that because it is not the tax on $1.5M that matters. What matters is that you now have a 1st year over the cap and each year in succession over the cap costs you more and more money in tax rate. So I would done whatever it took to whip that $1.5M off my books. As a Sox exec would you have had to have precisely accounted for your payroll to have done that. Sure, but that should be in part what they are paid to do. Considering how oblivious they are today, I suspect that the Sox did not even consider what they were doing at that time. Multiple analysts also had the Sox below the threshold for 2011. I am no longer sure they stayed under for 2011. Although they moved AGons 1st year money to the following year by not signing him until his money would only count against the year following. That certainly made sense if it meant they could stay below the threshold for 2011. However it was overly complicated and hardly worth raising the player's eyebrows if in fact they were over for 2011 anyway. If it did in fact keep them below the cap for 2011 then it goes from not worthwhile to worthwhile. It is becoming more and more obvious that these guys are just not that bright...none of them...certainly none of them left after Theo's departure. What they have done since Theo has left looks painfully like what they were trying to do before he left....Ortiz arbitration being Exhibit 1. I wonder if Peter Chiarelli and Cam Neely have any spare time to come over from the Bruins and clean up the Sox mess. They don't know anything about baseball but why should that matter. I don't think the current FO does either. If I had to rate them as business people I would rate them far higher than I would rate them as baseball people. By the way, I tend to agree that JH is not really long for ownership of this team. He will cash out taking a huge financial payoff as a result. The very first indication that he was not long for this could be found in Sox management continual improvements to Fenway as opposed to building new. That was literally a stroke of genius for a guy with an exit strategy and senseless for a guy really in for the long haul ala' the Steinbrunner's in NY and a number of other MLB owners.

The Sox are talking with this team and that team about this guy and that guy. They are talking with this agent and that agent. Fly on wall listening in to those "discussions". "Hey" says BC, "do ya' think your guy will take a pay cut and play for half the money he played for last year to come and play in Boston, obviously the center of the universe?" Agent: "Ah actually I don't think so". BC: "OK....thanks for stoppin in."

The only problem with that strategy is that the Sox are so shy on pitching now that all three would have to pitch and you simply cannot get much out of three arms that you paid on average $3M per for. Ya' you might get lucky with one and the other two will kill you day in and day out. They probably would have been better off trading for Santos if they only knew he was available. That would have allowed Bard to stay where he is.

Why wouldn't the Sox want Hermida. Lets get more bats and more bats...hell maybe we can lose game 15-10 instead of 12-8. Actually I now thing I have discovered the Red Sox strategy. They are planning on numerous high scoring games that go well into 4:30 hours in length giving us fans value for our entertainment $. In addition they will collect more bear and food revenue for our extended stays. We won't be getting quality for our entertainment $ though...just quantity. We will be a series of lousy sitcoms instead of one solid oscar candidate movie.

I don't know...we keep thinking the best about these boneheads and we keep analyzing player moves based on them having their heads screwed on straight and they keep proving they have no clue. Ortiz arbitration was a huge mistake....possibly being caught off guard on Sergio Santos is another big mistake if they don't want Bard to close. They did not even seen to know that Santos was available.

Ortiz is not the problem. The idiots that offered him arbitration are the problem. You can't possibly under any circumstances justify paying him $14M unless you have a real plan for solving the pitching issues. Ortiz can hit 40 home runs...it won't matter. Just like it never mattered to most of those 1960's Red Sox teams that could score a zillion runs but could not prevent anybody else from scoring. We talk about pitching like it is only important when and if you get to the post season. It is always pitching from day one of the regular season. No matter how far you go, it is always pitching. If in fact they are not going to break the LT cap, then they simply could not afford this gamble. They should have just cut Ortiz away. In fact we are in part claiming that we did not even want him. We gambled that we would get draft picks which on the surface was a nutty gamble to begin with. Nobody was making any moves that meant anything on Ortiz and you would have hoped the FO would have been able to figure that out. If they are not going to break the LT cap I suspect that means Bard closes whether he is ready or not. How I wish their pitching problems stopped there. Never fear though we will have last year's best DH in baseball back again at whatever the hell age he is. We will have no help from the RH side of plate. No rest for youk and AGons..., effectively blocked Lavarnway and worse than anything else, not nearly enough pitching to even be respectable. I could almost take it if the Sox did not have a history of building unsuccessful teams with exactly the profile this team will have only worse...certainly worse against any LH pitcher.