jung

Austerity is a relative term. My argument is that compared to other years, years that are in the main now responsible for what will be either the second or third highest payroll in baseball, spending "adds" this year appear nonexistent. In addition, since you cannot call what a player did as fact in a previous year conclusive evidence that he will repeat that performance the next year, we can only judge everything in terms of potential. If you had to look at the various elements that I content went into the Ortiz arbitration decision, which do you think the more likely: 1. Do you think it more likely that given his increasing age, Ortiz will repeat or exceed his 2011 performance in 2012? 2. Do you think it more likely that Ortiz will remain a fan favorite long enough to provide a benefit to the Sox from the perspective of his marketing potential and the related impact on ticket sales and other revenue bearing elements? I would contend that the way the Sox would view those elements, they would view Ortiz and his ability to be a benefit as a marketing tool as far more likely than that he would duplicate or improve on his on field 2011 performance. His addition to the roster bears an almost immediate benefit with regard to revenue bearing opportunities while his performance on the field will only be a factor that has an impact on revenue well into the season. By that I mean that even if Ortiz were to stumble right out of the blocks, we would all remain optimistic about the chances of his duplicating his 2011 performance and having a net positive impact on the team's standings until and unless his performance remained below that expectation for an extended period of time. By the time that day rolls around most of the tickets will be sold, most of the revenue will be accounted for and from LL's perspective, Ortiz will have done his job.

What is fact is that he WAS extremely productive last year. It is fact that he has the potential to be extremely productive this year. On balance even given his potential to be extremely productive, I would have taken a major upgrade to the rotation with the added benefit of being able to rotate guys into the DH spot over what we appear to be getting any day of the week. In fact even before the arbitration issue came up, when this board was discussing who should come back and who should not, Ortiz many times ended up on the short end of that discussion. Granted none of us are professional baseball people but we are in the main astute observers of the game. The only reason there was so much divided opinion about whether Ortiz should be back or not is that given what appeared to already be shaping up as a year when the Sox were going to make money an issue, we were making value judgements early on about the value of an aging DH given the number of inter-league games, the need for upgrades to the team pitching staff and the desire to rest certain players that also carry big lumber but have a propensity to fade over the course of the season or have shown a propensity to injury as they have gotten older. Ortiz' penchant for becoming self-centered is also now well documented and as others have mentioned, attitude can be an issue if it has an impact on other team members. Do we have to go back any farther than last year to see how much attitude can have an impact on the team as a whole? As for LL and his comments about the team payroll, that is a pretty ridiculous argument. I also would not trust LL as far as I could throw him. Most of the high payroll the Sox have is based on decisions made in previous years. If anything those decisions made in previous years appear to be driving this year's austerity program more than anything else.

It does not matter what we think the Sox should or should not do nor what we think they can or cannot do. It only matters what the Sox actually do or do not do. It should be clear to us by now that for a multitude of reasons, some maybe tied to the LT, they have made money an issue. As such it appears that we end up with an aging slugging DH and no solid addition to the rotation and lose our everyday SS. As I have said before I do not think the Ortiz arbitration decision has much to do with his projected production in 2012. All personnel decisions can be questioned on the margins anyway as in reality they are a bunch of individual decisions that go into the making of the whole. I still believe the team as a whole would have been a better team with a solid addition to the rotation (meaning better than Oswalt or Jackson), and rotating/resting players using the DH spot. As for the Ortiz arbitration offer, I view it as yet another example of JH and LL and their ceaseless meddling into Baseball Operations in order to satisfy their marketing ambitions. In this case in my view, they wanted a tie to the championship years to be a part of the 100 year Fenway celebration with the potential for Ortiz production to be an added benefit. So they get their marketing tool and a possible big bat for the 100 year celebration. We appear to have lost a shot at a major upgrade to the rotation, lose the opportunity to rotate/rest players using the DH spot and may have lost our everyday SS as well. It does not matter if we think they should not be making money an issue this year. Whether the LT is the heart of the money related concerns or not does not change what I view at this point as an undeniable fact. They have made money an issue this year. Combine that with what I view as a penchant to put their marketing ambitions ahead of what is best for the team in instances where push comes to shove and this is the result.

Reported use of HGH or other performance enhancers would not be a complete surprise. The only thing that improves with age is wine and even that is not a sure thing.

What Ortiz got paid for his performance between 2003-2007 is not relevant. The Sox picked him up when nobody really wanted to pay him anything. So you could argue that the Sox made a very good move that did in fact benefit both parties. I do think the arbitration process is a disgrace. Treating a guy his age like the clock has no meaning is ridiculous. Granted the Sox backed themselves into this corner by offering Ortiz arbitration which they never should have done in the first place. Having to give up $2M to him out of fear that the knuckle-headed arbitration process would have rewarded him another $2M on top of that for a total $16.5M is the only disappointment. Frankly I wish they had gone through the arbitration process and can only hope the outcome would have been $12.5 instead of $16.5M. The new CBA does make it more difficult for players to extract such large sums of money in arbitration but Ortiz would have been a good test of whether there is any real balance in this process or if it is just a sham. Since going through the process can only yield one of two results, any arbiters that could believe that $16.5 was closer to Ortiz true value than $12.5 should have gone from the arbitration hearing directly to protective custody until a sanity hearing could have been conducted.

I think one of the biggest issues you confront as a team in a DH league is the pressure on the staff including the relievers. There are no breaks anywhere in the lineup. You are under pressure from 1-9 to stave off run production by your opponent. Once you get behind with the other team into your pen you still have to find ways to keep their run production down or you have no shot at coming back once you get behind. Without the DH at the least every third inning and after the first 3-4 innings more like every other inning is an inning with a pretty sure out in it and that does make a pretty big difference between getting out of an inning unscathed and giving up more runs. You can keep a reliever in there pointing toward that one easy out figuring you will have a good chance of getting out of that inning. Without that, once behind if your reliever lets some guys on base, you have to get him outta' there in hopes that you can stop the bleeding. Death for a pen or quicker death for a pen is guys getting used continually day after day even for short stints. The middle relief guys are much better off if they can come in and pitch 2 maybe 3 innings and sit for a couple of days instead of coming in today for an ineffective stint against 4-5 batters, then coming in tomorrow for another short ineffective stint against 4-5 more batters etc etc. They can take a little of that but not much before they are just done. At least your closer is coming in for three outs and that is it. He does not have to get three outs and sit down only to come in again 15 minutes later after he has cooled down. Hence the closer has much more of an opportunity to survive multiple appearances . He gets up, warms, gets his three outs and he is done.

Why don't they just come out and articulate themselves thusly.....Blah blah blah....blah blah....blah blah blah blah. Save us the trouble.

I suspect they think themselves a bit between the rock and a hard place. I have thought much of the commenting from the Sox this offseason has been about setting expectations...what to expect us to spend....how well you should expect us to perform....etc etc. They seem not to want to set the bar to high while at the same time not sound like they are setting to to low either. Sort of a tough line to toe effectively.

I have never viewed this team threw rose colored glasses and have often been hard on certain elements of the Sox organization and team. However least we all forget, winning the prize for a baseball team is difficult...much like batting where a 1:3 ratio of success is considered an excellent performance. So it is far easier to expect things not to work out because more often than not things are not going to work out for a pro baseball team. In addition, winning it all is our measure of success and I believe that the Team for the most part views success in those terms as well. Success for the Management Organization is generating enough top line revenue and bottom line rewards. If it can win it all as well....great but first and foremost they view their jobs in terms of their top and bottom line targets. I have to believe that has a great deal of influence on Baseball Operations.

Truck Day is a big deal because it finally spells the end for the off season grind. This off season has been so much of a grind that I am surprised a bunch of us aren't hangin' off the back bumper.

I think the real threat on Oswalt is not anybody we have heard about so far. I don't think the Cards are going to guarantee Oswalt a chance to start or they would have by now. I still don't think he will want to come to Boston. So I would look for another NL Team (who knows which) that decides that the money is so short that they decide to jump in and pick Oswalt up, keeping him in the NL and in the rotation. He may still come to Boston under those circumstances but at that point it will boil down to the difference between what this hypothetical NL team offers hims and what the Sox offer him. If for example an NL team offers him $5M that probably pushes the Sox to $8M, etc.

Comcast Sportsnet just talkin' about Oswalt claims that the prevailing rumor is that Oswalt is down to Sox and Cards. Frankly I find it hard to believe that Oswalt is seriously considering the Sox but who knows.....stranger things have happened.

I know the language in the CBA sounds manageable enough and almost makes it seems like a team could make a case for using that language to dispense with a player in the arbitration process but that is really not the case. Basically if you can get the uniform on your back you are capable of playing. So there really is no case that can be made around that language. The Players Union would have kittens anyway.

I get both stations on cable and thought they replay Felger and Maz at night but could be wrong about that. Maz has always seemed to play some sort of wall for Felger to bounce off us as opposed to being an equal participant. I would hope they would have something more to add at this point beyond the Ortiz/Tito press room incident from last year. Ortiz could go a long way to helping his image by making this arbitration thing less of a burden for the Sox especially since I think they have done Ortiz the all time favor in offering it to him. I know some have a different view and I respect that but I really think they have done Ortiz a monster favor. I also think Ortiz was fortunate to have his contract negotiation and subsequent arbitration offer this arrive just as the Sox are trying to make a big marketing push for the 100th year thing....Fenway bricks etc. Not sure the Sox would have been as interested in Ortiz if not for the Fenway anniversary. By the way, not to have a negative take on the bricks thing because I do have a chunk of the original Green Monster but I have had a hard time getting into the bricks thing. Now give me a chance to throw one through a window at JH's house and now we're talkin'.

Well the Felger and Maz stuff sounds like it was part of a longer discussion. I am going to have to try to catch their nightly repeat. Not sure what time that comes on. Watching the hockey game but will try to catch them if I can.

Thanks folks.

Holy smokes guys! Did I miss a bunch of stuff today? Did Ortiz do something else in the last few days that has endeared us to him even further (ha ha ha). Dis Oswalt announce retirement? I think I remember somebody reporting that Oswalt was not ruling out retirement. I think that is about three or four weeks old now.

I just don't think they are planning it so that both Bard and Aceves end up in the pen. Look at what they have done to stock up on guys for the pen so far. If both Bard and Aceves end up back there, the pen would seem overstocked compared to what they could expect from the rotation. Lets say they get a #4 from someplace. Would you think any of those guys they brought in will best either Aceves or Bard for the #5?

Cafardo talking tonight about liking Aceves in the BP as well as the uncertainty of Bard being able to start....went on to talk about the killer BP the Sox would have if both Aceves and Bard stayed in the pen. That seems an impossibility at this point though. At least one of them will have to start I would think.

I don't think Oswalt would retire as opposed to coming to Boston. If he was going to retire then he would no longer be so concerned with a long term deal next year and would just take the money this year. So I actually suspect that would enhance the chances of his coming here. This looks like the best shot they could possibly have of getting him although I have thought for a long time now that more teams would come out of the woodwork at the eleventh hour figuring they could get him cheap. I still think he would pitch outside of the AL East for cheap before coming to the AL East for something slightly more than cheap. I don't see the Sox offering anymore than $7M, maybe $8M. I would guess he would take $6M from somewhere outside of the AL East and maybe as little as $5M anywhere in the NL. Watch out for SF.

E1 I think the reason your premise is drawing such fire is because it is something of a straw-man. Asking how we would have felt IF the Yanks picked up Ortiz is hardly a rational for what the Sox did. In the first place how we would have felt has nothing to do with the price of tea in China. and if you want to know...If the Sox made a rational choice and did something that made sense with the resources used for Ortiz I don't give a damn what the Yanks did. I can't control what the Yanks do. I can't control what the Red Sox do but if I was in position of authority I would do what was in the best interest of the performance of my team. What some other team does subsequently is what some other team does. I will tell you this though....if you really want to make me feel good about myself as a pro sports GM, tell me that you are going to do things or not do things based on what I might do subsequently and I will think you are a fool and I will think I have got you right where I want you.

It certainly did not look like the Yanks had any interest in Ortiz and the Sox have to stop thinking like your post suggests anyway E1. You cannot play the money game with the Yanks successfully. It is like taking a knife to a gunfight. That is not the way to beat them. All that leads to is expenditures of resources that you should be using to make your team better than you end up using to prevent something that will not likely even happen in the first place. You just move the problem from one spot to another spot. That is in part why the Yanks and Cashman were gloating over the CC signing. That said I don't think the Ortiz arbitration offer had anything to do with the Yankees and I am at least grateful for that. If anything that "logic" would have made the whole damn thing even less palatable.

It certainly did not look like the Yanks had any interest in Ortiz and the Sox have to stop thinking like your post suggests anyway E1. You cannot play the money game with the Yanks successfully. It is like taking a knife to a gunfight. That is not the way to beat them. All that leads to is expenditures of resources that you should be using to make your team better than you end up using to prevent something that will not likely even happen in the first place. You just move the problem from one spot to another spot. That is in part why the Yanks and Cashman were gloating over the CC signing. That said I don't think the Ortiz arbitration offer had anything to do with the Yankees and I am at least grateful for that. If anything that "logic" would have made the whole damn thing even less palatable.

Come on light myself on fiaaaaa......Come on light myself on fiaaaaaaa.......Come on light myself on fiaaaaaAAAAAAA!!!! Sorry....could not help myself. Cultural flash from the past just shot through the old cranium.

Wow....Come onnnnnnnnn Spring Traning!!!!