jung

It is true that much of what has been posted is based on looking at the team as constructed and trying to make some judgments about that team or looking at it with the addition of one SP of so far unspecified quality and trying to make some judgements about that. I am going to go back to something that I had mentioned early on in this thread but in a different context. The Sox in my view have built a team of very impressive players that occupy most of the starting every day positions and SP roles. Even Drew for all his shortcomings was a pretty decent player. The problem in my view is that they spent all of their money in those top 8 everyday players and the pitchers they thought would end up at the top of rotation offering them long term deals at huge money and then did very little to support them with meaningful backups. Had they not been so focused on these "glamor" signings they might have had more money to balance the payroll between those guys that start on opening day and those top rotation guys and the players that support them. In addition some of those glamor signings not only cost them money in contracts but put a big hole in the farm system where support players better than the McDonalds' of the world might have really helped this team. The falloff has been not just significant but huge as soon as those top 8 every day players or guys intended for the top of the rotation go down. Drew is a good example...Drew goes down and we get who....McDonald! We want to say that the team that gets hot at the end of the year going into the playoffs has the best chance of winning it all. I agree with that. How do you get hot with significant parts of your lineup on the shelf and playing basically with dregs instead of players that can actually have an impact for a short period of time, meaning meaningful backups. Now some of this sunk money is sunk in players that cannot play at all in 2012, they no longer even have an everyday SS of any kind never mind, poor or bad or mediocre or rent-a-wreck....try nobody. They have Youk a year older and in all likelihood more fragile than ever and what is his backup? He is in great shape?....there is is no great shape for his body type. He is aging early. I actually think he might make 120 games this year but I would not count on him for a game more than that and probably less. Those that want to look on the bright side have got to admit that the Red Sox have to many weak spots in the dike and assuming that this particular dike (which is much influenced by chance of injury) will not expose some of those holes is ridiculous. It is professional sports. Some number of guys do not play complete seasons...period! So if I looked at the starting 8, they are a bit weaker right now than when they started 2011 although better than most by a long shot. But they have even fewer support players that can step in. In fact it now looks like they are going to start the season with support players playing at some positions. I do think the OF acquisition will ultimately help them because I think he can play any outfield position to some extent. He might be the best evidence that this organization might have finally learned what it takes to survive and compete in MLB. As for the rotation, that now looks to me like a duplicate of the everyday player situation. They have Buch, the pitching equivalent of Youk in a potential for injury sense in the 3 hole and two guys that you might have wanted as swingmen or in the bullpen actually occupying the 4 and 5 holes, never having started anywhere professionally before. While we have a decent BP, you cannot in a month of Sundays project that BP as better than what we had last year with Aceves, Bard and Pap holding down the fort. It might look better in the sense that there are guys that have no real record of accomplishment that you could project as having good years but the real problem with the pen last year was not the quality of the players. We wore it out. We beat the s*** out of it. Does this year look like it could be more of the same? It sure as s*** does. There are just to many weak spots in this dike and those that want to suggest that we should just wait and see are pissing into the breeze cause we can't do anything about it anyway. We can't change a God Damned thing! But we can look realistically at what this team is and make some judgements about its chances for success and I keep coming back to the same thing. There are simply to many weak spots in this particular dike and the Sox will once again in my view not have enough fingers for those weak spots in the dike once they start turning into holes as there are no adequate substitutes, just like last year. I will be happy to be wrong cause I don't give a rats ass if I am one of the guys that have to eat some forum crow at the end of the year. It is a sports board. In that sense I don't give a crap about having to eat some crow for being wrong and I would prefer to be wrong in this particular case. Now for the intangibles. Here is another popular argument. When those that want to project this team as better are stuck recognizing that when you look at them player by player, at best they are the same as last year, the next argument we have to hear is the intangibles argument. New strength and conditioning guys: This argument is the least substantive of them. I will say it again, strength and conditioning guys in MLB are glorified towel holders. To project on them the kind of impact that their brethren in the NLF have is a mistake. They don't have that kind of control. It is very much up to the player to keep himself conditioned through the season. The medical staff: I had hopes for this one all the way up until a few days ago when somebody posted that this next bunch are from the same association of doctors that Gill was from and as that poster rightfully noted, doctors within the same medical groups adopt the same medical practices. So if this is true prepare for more sparsity with regard to MRI. In addition the medical staff has an impact after injury occurs so their benefit is one that might be relevant after the fact. Taking them from least relevant to most relevant then the management changes are the most relevant intangible in my estimation. However BC is yet another LL lackey. For whatever reason JH likes it this way and that is the way it is. Although I do think that in time what appears to now be a reluctance to expend big dollars in guys that by default, as a group cannot last an entire season leaving nothing for support players will change, not because Theo is gone and BC is here but because I think the whole organization realizes that without spreading the payroll over more players and continuing to feed the major league effort with players in development and under cost control, they are doomed to repeat a succession of 2011's maybe not as dramatically as in 2011 but who gives a s***...losing is losing. As for Valentine, based on his history he is just as likely to blow up like a nuclear bomb as he is to succeed especially with this kind of squad. So it is hard for me to put much value on this intangibles ********. However I do very much think that management and the baseball organization if it has a willingness to spread payroll as I have suggested will build better, more capable teams that are at the same time easier to manage and that take better care of themselves. However that does nothing for our 2012 which unfortunately was tainted by the mind set from the past. That is what in my view produced the Ortiz Arbitration offer. Maybe there was no way out of this one given the 100th year thing. However you cannot convince me that this would not have been a better team with the DH role spread amongst what are still some very big bats for the Sox and with one more real stud of a starting pitcher instead of this thrashing through the trash we appear destined for looking for another starter with no means to rest guys like Youk while keeping their bats in the lineup. For 2012 I see a number of teams that are marginally better than they were in 2011 in the AL and a Sox team that is about the same. Over the 162 games while we will likely focus on what we do against the Yankees and the Rays and Rangers it is that 112th game against Detroit that you lose or that 85th game against the Angels that you lose instead of win that I think will ultimately tell the tail for the 2012 Sox. It will lose more games because it is not better than 2011 while facing many teams that are marginally better than they were in 2011. That is the beauty of the 162. it is a grind. It is a marathon and the pieces that you can insert over that 162 are more important than the Sox have made them in recent history and that is why we have the team we have. On top of everything else no matter how you slice it no matter what you want to argue, the addition of a WC slot is not a benefit to the Sox. It is hard to conceive the Sox as being a true competitor for the division at this point which makes them a competitor for one of those WC spots. That WC spot is not what it used to be when compared to being the division leader. It is better than going home but far worse now than winning the division. A one game play in is truly a crapshoot. Ya' wanna' place a bet on either team winning a one game play in? Literally anything can happen in that case. I do think that it is not a coincidence that MLB is both bringing in the second WC AND making it very painful for teams to exceed the cap in the coming years. If not for that we might be back to a succession of Yankee teams getting to the WS, first winning the division and having that advantage propel them into the WS in more years than anybody wants to see. Now, every God Damned bit of this post is opinion, all of it, based on looking at the players and the organization, just like every other damned post other than those that announce a trade or a signing or something like that. We should dispense entirely with this view that we should not do this and frankly some of you have gotten very close to that line. This is all we can do. If we can't do this, there is no reason for being here at all.

With all due respect, that is close to the most specious argument I have ever read on this board.

Not likely. The premise is that the two WC teams will have to face off their Aces to pitch that play in game, hence making them unavailable for the 1st and 2nd games of the division series. It will be game 3 before the winner of the play in can use their Ace again. You can bank on MLB scheduling events so that this is exactly what happens because the entire rational for the i game play in between WC teams is to make the regular season leader a more meaningful accomplishment. That team will be able to start it's Ace in the first game of the division playoff, a game played on its own turf. That team will also very likely be able to pitch their ace twice in the division series if need be. Whichever team comes out of the WC play in will be at a distinct disadvantage in the division series.

WC this year will mean a one game play-in. If your "Ace" is available to pitch in that one game play in, you really will have no choice but to use him, leaving the team that wins the play in at a distinct disadvantage going into the division series. it will be game 3 of the division series before you will be able to use your ace again. This is the whole reason for the one game play in...to make the division championship more meaningful and make it more difficult for teams to come out of the wild card.

Great more guys that think MRI's should be reserved for.....for what for crying out loud. That has been about the dumbest think I have seen in awhile. It is almost like they are taking the "logic" drilled into them by the insurance companies that really control how medicine is administered in this country for 90% of us and applying that to a professional sports team.

That is true. The point is I am still kinda' worried that in this particular case, in the long run he may have issues even larger than things like the Sox previous medical staff view regarding MRI. If he cannot pitch with the additional bulk yet cannot last the season without it or if his back issues are motion related, then he may just not ever end up being what his promising pro career start suggested he might be. We can fix the knucklehead med staff. These other issues could easily turn out to be chronic issues that become defining with regard to his potential and eventually his career.

This may be unduly harsh if Buch's back issues turn out to be tied to either his increased bulk put on to improve is ability to get through the season or his motion. He may just not be the guy we all hoped he would be.

Well all the folks that said that Oswalt and the Cards had an agreement earlier in the day have retracted that and if the most recent reports suggesting that the Cards are trying to sign him as a relief pitcher are true, I would say they are a long way from signing him.

Why did something else happen on Oswalt tonight Jackson. Last I saw the Cards and everybody else had backed way off today. Did something more happen tonight?

I suspect he will still be a FA by Monday. Oswalt seems to be having such a hard time finding a place and a price he likes it seems to me that he is likely to at least hear what Texas has to say. Heck it is a day or two at this point.

I think most if not all of the folks that have voiced concerns have voiced them about the team as it is currently constructed and since Management has come out and publicly stated that they are content with the team as it is currently constructed it seems to me that offering the contrary view is valid criticism. You can disagree with those that voice concerns about the team as it is currently constructed and you can even argue that you think Management's comments are a smoke screen but to suggest that the team as currently constructed should not be fair game when Sox Management's comments about said team are a matter of public record seems pretty pitiful to me.

Frankly E1 that is ridiculous. It is a sports board. Everything posted here is opinion and everybody knows it. If somebody wants to post up their opinion about where this is going that is their business. It is not like anything posted here is going to actually have an impact on the result. As for 700, my memory might be faulty on this, but I think people called him on the Crawford thing. He admitted that he liked the deal when it happened and admitted that it did not work out like he had hoped. Using something like his opinion on the Crawford deal to try to shout the guy down now is ******** E1. Its ********. Give it a break for crying out loud. The worse thing a board can do is to try to censor spirited discussion and eliminate opinion.

If the Cards are only offering Oswalt a deal as a relief pitcher that might be more evidence that there is something about Oswalt that has got baseball's professionals spooked. So far it appears that nobody is willing to offer him a deal that he wants in a place where he wants to play. I really wonder about those reports that Oswalt turned down $10M from Detroit. Nobody else appears close to offering him anything like $10M. I suspect he turned down something from Detroit but it seems less likely to me that the deal he turned down was for $10M.

The whole process with Jackson seems ass backwards. Jackson has apparently said that "he would take a 1 year deal with the Red Sox" but I guess that does not mean that the Sox have offered him a one year deal. In fact it may be more likely at this point that they have not offered him anything.Maybe he made that comment before he had multiple 3 year deals in front of him. I don't think anybody has identified the teams that have put 3 year deals on front of Jackson.

From the player perspective Jackson would likely believe it makes more sense to come to Boston on a 3 year deal than Oswalt coming to Boston on a one year deal. Jackson would be able to skip over 2013 where Oswalt appears fixated on having a good year somewhere and going back into the FA market in 2013. The only monkey wrench there is if people start bidding Jackson up. The Sox don't appear much interested in engaging in a bidding war. Maybe these reports of Floyd being the next guy in line for Boston are based on Boston determining that they have made the best offer they are going to make for Jackson and don't think that will get it done, whatever it is.

The Sox are not going to sign Oswalt. Since the article sort of went into discussions of his physical pretty much right on top of the discussion of his intentions I am inclined to think that will be the only thing that stands in the way. If his agent is contacting another team I would not think it is the Sox. Oswalt does not want to pitch in the AL East and there is no earthly reason why he should. Nobody in the AL East including the Sox are going to offer him enough of a premium to drag him over here. It ain;'t worth it on a 1 year deal.

Ya but what remains undone appears to relate to a pending physical regarding Oswalts back issues. Are you suggesting that if Oswalt does not pass his physical, the Sox should sign him?

This is very much like the impression I got from BC's WEEI interview in connection with the money the Sox got for offing Scuts.

Geez I think he said he was going to sleep earlier. Probably a good thing. I can see the mushroom cloud over his keyboard now.

I admit, some of this stuff is getting hard to fathom. There could be some other reason unknown to us that will likely never be known to us that they dumped Scuts. They went out of their way to call signing Scuts a good situation for the Sox and then a few weeks later claim that they decided there was a better way to use the money. Like I said above maybe there is something to the rumors that V did not want him and went to LL to have Scuts offed. Who the hell knows at this point. Hard to understand how we expect to compete this way.

Buckets of prospects for Floyd make as little sense as putting as much emphasis on this SP signing as we have here in this board. As I stated before while I don't necessarily agree with this comment I have seen more than one article lately suggesting that the Sox are really looking to fill the number 5 hole. Now that seems to me to bequeath the 4 hole to either Aceves or Bard and I have problems with that. However, I do think that the Sox are way less exercised over this next SP than we are and are not willing to give up the family jewels for guys like Oswalt or Jackson or Floyd. Even with the hole in the middle of the lineup that Ortiz would have left, I think this would have been a better team without Ortiz and with a legitimate big time, major league pitcher in the 4 hole. I think they could have gotten enough offense out of the DH spot rotating good bats into that spot and would have been a better overall team,,,,why,,,,because their pitching would have been better and they had a team at one point that could have rotated guys into the infield and into the DH spot. The Sox went another way with the Ortiz arbitration and while they may not have been willing to admit it to us, we on this board in many cases immediately saw that move as a move that would impact their ability to significantly upgrade the pitching and I have to say that in my opinion, that is what we have gotten.

I initially thought that the media comments that V did not want Scuts around were just more media stirring the pot. But when pressed by EEI the other day, the best BC could do was to say that "the Sox saw an opportunity to redistribute those dollars as assets more effectively than using them on Scuts and that prompted the move. In other words, he really side stepped the issue of Scuts for a pitcher in my view and instead opted to claim that while not having a specific player that they wanted to get with that money, the Scuts move still represented an opportunity to use those assets more effectively "eventually". Well that just sounds like so much mumble speak to me. It does make me wonder if V went to his in house Ace in the Hole, LL and offered that he really did not want Scuts for some reason.

If the offers are still low across the board, it would make sense for Oswalt to wait a bit longer. Again though I think if all the offers are in line, then Oswalt is very likely to stay NL and even if the Sox only exceed an NL offer by a little, I still think Oswalt goes NL. So far don't see any indication that the Sox are going to exceed the going market for Oswalt by enough to make a difference...all opinions of course but I am off the school of if it walks like a duck, talks like duck and looks like a duck.....its a duck.

I guess Cards would make sense. Gets to stay in the NL. I will be real interested to see what that deal turns out to be presuming Oswalt does go ahead and sign with the Cards.

Oh God no....ya' got that stuck in my head now mvp....Northeastern 12, Red Sox 8.