The problem is that Farrell has his binkies. Just the way he rationalizes some of his decisions tells you that. He is the Manager so he can have them if he wants. But it does not pay off in the end. Managers who have them more often than not die by them as opposed to living by them. They will eventually trust them in too many completely against the numbers, against the odds situation and will be left with no logical rationalization for the decision they made. "I had a hunch" eventually begins to sound strident and unsatisfying when the numbers really start to fall the wrong way which they surely will in time. That is why they are the "numbers". "We win with player X" is not a number that means anything unless you want to decide that chaos theory is worth considering as meaningful to baseball decision making. Farrell is already a little shaky when it comes to responding to questions about some of his less than sterling decisions. Sometimes it tumbles out of his mouth easily sometimes not but it rarely is based on anything that instills much in the way of confidence.
The idea that there is some magic in any of this, that any of them have some sort of crystal ball that makes their hunches better than some other manager's hunches is just laughable though nobody is directly suggesting that here. However if you play this out to its logical conclusion it should be obvious where stuff like this ends up going.
Farrell's strengths are his preparation which is quite complete and truly impressive, his ability to build a solid clubhouse atmosphere where he gets and demands respect from his players without coddling them and his underlying understanding for what makes pitcher's tick in an environment where pitching dominates the game. Pitching dominates baseball even more than goal tending dominates hockey. His weaknesses are his tendency to have binkies and his spur of the moment, on the spot, in-game decision making. Giving up on having binkies usually requires that a manager live through some very painful lessons and it is surely a question whether a manager can live through such painful lessons and still end up managing the same team. Maybe some other team ends up benefiting from lessons learned earlier and that is most often the case. At any rate, I expect Farrell to learn this lesson eventually as they almost always do.
As for his in-game decision making, I am not sure that will ever improve. Morales for Buch was a staggeringly bad decision. But there ya' go. Farrell's preparation is terrific. But you can't prepare for everything and Morales in that spot was just a terrible decision, not one that I can believe Farrell would make as part of his preparation. for that game. There is a yin and yang to this. I doubt the fact of his preparation being so good while his spur of the moment in-game decision making is somewhat weak is a coincidence. People have strengths and weaknesses. Their minds work a particular way and we all tend to rely on our strengths to pull us past our weaknesses. Will Farrell be considered one of the league's best or at least better managers ten years from now? Probably given his other managerial characteristics, much will depend on how quickly he learns the lesson about favorites or binkies. His other strengths would appear strong enough to pull him through...especially when you consider the competition....other ML managers......hardly a very daunting bunch I would say. Not sure that as a group they could successfully "manage" a tidily winks contest.
If I had my choice and having a superlative GM meant I had to have a manager that was no better than average I would take that over the opposite any day and twice on Sunday.