No. It's silly to think that arbitration where a player is guaranteed a 20% raise is a contract year. If you don't remember his delivery being all over the place, review video from the last two years. There were two years where he was all over the place and did not have his typical movement on his fastballs, or throw his splitter, etc.
As for Bard's stats, I realize they're not the best in save situations, but at the same time he's never been named the closer. And if Papelbon asks for $15 million a year over 3 years like he likely will, I think the Sox will be wise to let him walk.