I agree with pretty much of your post. 2011 season is completely different than 2012 scenario. if we stay close in the run before the All Star Game, things could turn around in our favor.
My only concern is how all these injured players will come back. If ok, yes, we could fight for a PO spot, If no, the scenario will be very tough and likely we won't make it IMO.
The most important thing right now is that those players come back 100 % healthy/at their abilities, and current key players (Gonzo, Papi, Peddy, etc.) do not get an injury/underperform.