BornToRun
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Everything posted by BornToRun
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Weird question about fandom from a first time poster
BornToRun replied to mrcharliereeves's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Does it matter? -
Weird question about fandom from a first time poster
BornToRun replied to mrcharliereeves's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
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Weird question about fandom from a first time poster
BornToRun replied to mrcharliereeves's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yeah, I bet you do. Considering how much he's dominated the steelers over his career. -
Weird question about fandom from a first time poster
BornToRun replied to mrcharliereeves's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Whoever said lightning didn't strike twice, right? -
I prefer garza. I like Zach, his anxiety issues just have me tentative.
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I doubt Phillie is going to want a 29 year old nonprospect and an outfielder in his early 30's on a 1 year deal for Hamels, especially when them trading cole would lead most people to believe that they were giving up on the season.
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In some cases yes, there are guys who have gotten incredibly lucky/unlucky over the course of a whole season. If I'm pitching in the 6th and there's a guy on third with two outs, how the hell is it my fault when I get the hitter out in front of a change but my shortstop is a rangeless wonder and lets it roll into the outfield and 6 innings 2 ER turns into 6 innings 3 ER? I did my job, didn't I? If Jon were a guy who's had a history of putting up numbers out of line with what his peripherals suggest, I'd be more inclined to agree with you but I look at what he's done and the only thing I've gained from the numbers is that he's had some s*** luck and has pitched much better than he's being given credit for. A conclusion you can't come to just by looking at ERA. That's how I see it.
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ERA is useful, it's just not anywhere near as good as what else is available. Judging someone based on their ERA is no different than Judging a player on RBI or runs scored. You're reading the book by its cover so to speak. It tells part of the story but not enough to tell you everything you need to know.
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Lester has thrown the cutter on 15% of his pitches this year. The lowest total of his career by far.
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Ex-f***ing-actly. Looking at fangraphs. The only number that speaks to supporting a high era is the line drive %. But everything else is right around normal or even better. I'd say, looking at the peripherals, Lester should be having one of the best years of his career but he hasn't because of as you so aptly put it "s*** luck"
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No matter how much you want it to be, ERA is not a very useful metric. It just isn't. There's no debate or opinion there. Other stats have come along to displace it as the primary indicator of a pitcher's success. It provides a glimpse at what might lie underneath it. You don't look at someone's ERA and automatically say, "his ERA is better, he's the better pitcher." not if you have a brain anyways.
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If broxton can hold on. We're tied with Tampa. Not bad for a team that a large chunk of this forum seems hell bent on dismissing.
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Royals up 5-4, bottom 8 by the way. 3 outs and this team is tied with Tampa.
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You're leading this forum in DOBBTR Dinners Owed By BornToRun
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He has. As much as you may and everyone else might hate his ******* attitude and his texasness, he's been our #1 and he's pitched just like that moniker dictates he should except for 2 starts. 2 starts out of 12 with circumstances behind those starts suggesting that they are outliers. Josh is the guy who shut down Tampa over 8 innings in the home opener, the guy who held Texas to 3 over 7 one night after they put up 18, the guy who outdueled cliff lee on his own turf, and who went pitch for pitch with David Price during our last series against Tampa. Josh has been our best starter this year and one of the better ones in baseball, just because you think he's an ******* doesn't change that.
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ERA is overrated, dude. It's that simple. I put more stake in WHIP and K/BB ratio than I do ERA.
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The rest of his numbers say that as well. I just dont feel like posting all of them from an iPhone. Most of his numbers aside from line drive rate are right where they should be or approaching that. He's had s*** luck. I expect things to improve because that's what the numbers are saying.
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Luck plays a huge role in pitching. Look at dice k from 08 to 09. He had an era south of 3 but his FIP was way over 4. He walked the park but had an incredible strand rate. The next year, those numbers normalized and he sucked. The pitcher has little control of balls in play. Some guys do outperform or underperform what they're peripherals predict them to do but Jon isn't one of them. The two numbers are very close to each other in his career so that tells me that he's been very unlucky this year.
