SoxFanForsyth

He was shut down but it wasn't due to an injury. It was due to him not being able to keep his split down, it had zero bite. That was due to fatigue, and largely because he threw so many innings the prior year. And by the way, his 1.75 ERA over 138.2 IP was only a tick worse than Mariano's best 2 year span (05-06, 153.1 IP, 1.58 ERA). So, since Koji has been with the Red Sox, he's been absolutely elite. Let's not confuse that. He's been more than "one amazing season". Only 3 pitchers in the MLB posted a better ERA than Koji since 2013 (min 100 IP).

What's the difference between being good and being a good "compiler of stats"? Don't you have to be good to compile good stats? We already went over how he was excellent in September, 2011, when the Red Sox were flailing as a team. He tried to put the team on his back. The pitchers wouldn't allow it.

I think we disagree on the fact that winning and developing rookies are not mutually exclusive.

So in Sept 2011, when the Sox were reeling, and he hit .318/.455/.523, what did you want him to do differently? The Sox lost in spite of him not because of him.

Dojji - you have to understand, Ted wants immediate results. He doesn't want to sift through growing pains. Either you're Mike Trout or you're a bust. I would bet that in 06, Ted was crushing Lester and his 4.76 era. And probably griping about the Sox not trading him for Johan, too!! Prospects take time to adjust, Ted. You have to just compliment them with enough veterans that the lumps they absorb aren't going to result in a 71 win team. That's where the Sox went wrong last year. Needed a veteran at 3B and also a veteran not named AJP at C

Not really. A 20-30 HR bat at SS? Not exactly an overstatement. Scouts have comped him to Manny, given his absurd pop to the opposite field (don't believe me? Go read the BA Prospect Chat with Alex Speier).

I would disagree. Bogaerts had a down year overall but he absolutely crushed it in the first two months and in September, so he's shown the ability to be an impact bat. His struggles in the MLB in 2014 should translate to a very good second season, as he was able to make the adjustments he needed to make toward the end of the season. Betts, we agree on. He posted a 2.1 bWAR/1.8 fWAR in about 1/3 of a season. He basically played like a 6 win player last year (insane). Vazquez isn't going to be an all star, at least not yet, but he did throw out 52% of the runners (which is insane), and put up a .308 OBP. Nobody needs him to be an all star caliber hitter. If he can hit you .250/.320/.350 (he hit .240/.308 last year with a .283 BABIP, so a bump to .250/.320 is very reasonable), and provide the defense he provides, he's an excellent player (last year he posted a 1.1 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR over 55 games. That would translate to around a 3.0 bWAR and a 2.0 fWAR over 150). Buch and Kelley - Nobody is asking them to be aces. They can absolutely provide serviceable innings at an extremely low cost. This is what allows you to go out and spend $40mm on two top-of-the-rotation pitchers. Webster is a crap shoot. He played well in September, but who knows with him. The #5 slot could be a constant rotation between rookies next year (Webster, Johnson, Owens, Rodriguez). Either way, you're paying them league min and getting league average, maybe a tick below league average production. The point is, you've filled out your roster with a lot of extremely cheap talent that has very high upside (see Buch 2013, Kelley 2013, Betts 2014, Bogearts upside is immense). And that is how you are able to afford guys like Lester and Sandoval on the FA market, and it doesn't cripple your team financially. This team has $42mm locked up for 2016. $42mm. That's it. They have done an excellent job in keeping deals short term so that, if a deal doesn't pan out, it's not 8 years of smothering dollars. Now, they'll have to get away from that plan with Pablo and Lester (unless they go Headley on a 2-3 year deal), but that's just 1-2 players.

Adrian Gonzalez hit .337/.441/.483 in 2011 with RISP. He hit .318/.455/.523 in September, 2011. But don't let stats get in the way of your hate. He was a very, very good hitter for the Red Sox.

Um. The Sox starting C, 2B, SS, and RF are all homegrown. I don't know what you want from the Red Sox. They win a world series in 2013 with Pedroia, Nava, Buch, and Lester as the only homegrown players. Next year they go in with Vazquez, Pedey, Bogaerts, Betts, Buchholz, Nava. They have Holt, Kelley, Webster, Workman, RDLR all acting as bench/SP/RP. What is it that you're looking for?!? They have $42mm on the books as of today for 2016. You're just complaining to complain. The Red Sox are in the best shape of any big market team out there right now.

agree - and they will land one this offseason

So the Red Sox have Betts, Bogaerts, & Vazquez all starting for their offense. They have Nava and Holt on the bench. All making league min. They have Kelly and likely Webster as 2 of the 5 SP. Buchholz, who makes pennies, is another SP. They have tons of young cheap talent. I have no idea what you're talking about.

Lol. They have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball

I imagine you mean 2013 rather than 2012 and 2014 rather than 2013, but regardless, Koji posted a 2.52 era, an 11.19 k:9 and a 1.12 bb:9 last year. He was still absolutely excellent last year. He hit a rough patch at the end of the season but the fact that his numbers were still among the best in all of baseball lets you know that he is historically good when he's on. He was an excellent signing.

We just disagree about how close the Red Sox actually are.

When people start making arguments by putting words into your mouth and taking said points to the extreme, it just shows that they have no argument and have resigned to petty name calling techniques. Obviously the Red Sox have work to do. But if the Sox signed Lester, McCarthy, Koji (which they just did, 2/$18mm), and Sandoval, they'll have an absolute WS contender. And that doesn't even address any trade potentials. Lineup of Betts Pedroia Ortiz Cespedes Sandoval Napoli Castillo Bogaerts Vazquez. Bench of Holt, Nava, Craig, Backup C Rotation of Lester McCarthy Buchholz Kelley Webster Bullpen of Koji, Tazawa, Mujica, RDLR, Workman, Layne, Ed Escobar (.200/.244/.230 vs LHH last year) That is a team that can go deep into the post season. And that doesn't even take into consideration trading for a guy like Cueto rather than signing McCarthy. The Red Sox don't have to have a homegrown ace to win the world series. They didn't have a homegrown ace in 2004. Their ace in 2007 was Beckett (not home grown). The Yankees won in 09 with Sabathia (not homegrown). That argument is a fallacy.

It's almost as if the Red Sox didn't win the World Series last year

I'm not saying they will. I'm showing Fred the financial flexibility they have

Latos used to be good but he isn't anymore. He was hurt last year and lost 2 mph off his fastball (92.7 to 90.6 avg velo). His K rate dropped from 7.99 to 6.51 per 9. He's a guy who would get eaten alive in the AL East. His stuff doesn't translate well. Count me out on Latos

Yeah, if Lester doesn't come back to the Sox, he will be a Cubbie for sure. There are two possible destinations for him: CHC and BOS. That's it, that's all. I still say he comes back to Boston. One thing I can guarantee, though - he's not going to the Yankees.

We may not know what Swihart's ceiling is for 3 seasons, but by the end of 2015, he should be the starting C on this team. Keep in mind, I love, love, love Vazquez too.

You do realize that the Red Sox have about $70mm to spend, correct? If they spend $20 on Panda, they can still give Lester 6/150 ($25mm AAV), 4/80 ($20mm AAV) on Shields, $11mm on Koji, and still have $4mm left over. And that's just pushing them to the Lux Tax threshhold, which they have said is not a hard cap. I'm not saying that this is the way they will spend, I'm just showing you that spending on a 3B doesn't keep them from spending huge on two FA SP. Personally I think they'll sign Lester and trade for Cueto, perhaps even giving up Owens or Eduardo Rodriguez, though that would make me sick.

Headley is precisely why I said that offense deteriorates slower than defense. If anything happens to Panda, he has the bat to play 3B, 1B, or DH. If anything happens to Headley, you're stuck with a 3B with no stick, and his defense will begin to decline. Aramis would be ok, but he would just be a stop gap to nobody. Who are you going to sign after 2015? Sandoval is the best 3B FA available for a while. And the market is super thin for 3B. Sandoval is going to get more like 5/95, and it will probably be from the Red Sox, and that's a good thing.

Agree, Spud!! Can't wait for the offseason! I actually like the idea of Panda, mainly because offense deteriorates slower than defense, Nap has 1 year left on his deal, and Ortiz isn't going to be around forever, so I see Sandoval as a 1B/3B/DH over his deal and that will allow the Sox some versatility going forward when replacements are needed

I agree this whole trade Cespedes speculation is odd, although he does offer the most trade value of any of our outfielders. I am really not sure what he would even net us to be honest. I guess if the Mets are interested and you can swing a guy like Snydergard for Cespedes and a stud prospect, or you can get Wheeler for Cespedes plus a Barnes type, you do that. I have also heard speculation from the Dallas Morning Sun that the Rangers should trade Gallo for Cespedes, which would never happen but it is certainly fun to dream. Either way, those are the returns the Sox would have to get to trade Cespedes. A long term piece that they can win with now but build around in the future. They're not going to unload Cespedes for nothing because they would be then admitting to have lost the trade. I do wonder if the Rangers feel like Gallo is ready now, if a deal could be struck involving Beltre and Cespedes (among other components)

We're on the same page!!