SoxFanForsyth

someone has to keep this site balanced!

I believe they are planning on going after Scherzer if the reports are correct

That's about the same amount of pitchers that I would give up 6 years of service from an elite prospect for 1 year of that pitcher, too

I would love it. But I'm not giving up elite talent for a guy who isn't going to give me 220 IP.

But Allen Craig and Joe Kelly are realistic for Lackey? Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin are realistic for Price? You've got a guy in Zimmermann who is making $16mm next year, you've got him for 1 season, and then he hits FA. He had a very solid year in 2014 but other than that, he's been a 3.2-3.6 fWAR pitcher over the 3 seasons prior to that. He's thrown 200 IP exactly 1 time in his career (199.2 last year, so very close to 200, but you want to see him in the 210 + range if you think my proposal is "not even close"). Lackey, in 2013, is extremely close to what Zimmermann has been his whole career (3.2 fWAR pitcher). Zimmermann has great upside, but you don't buy him based on 2014. You buy him based on the past 3-4 years, which means he's around a 4-4.1 fWAR pitcher. At $7mm per win, that's around a $28-30mm value. Take out his $16mm and you're getting $12-14mm in excess value that you need to trade for him. Per FG, Henry Owens is a 20-30mm excess value pitcher over his next 6 seasons. Margot and Devers, given their relative risk, are both in the 10-20mm range of excess value, so a deal of Zimmermann for one of those two would be about right. Brian Johnson (again, based on FG) is about a 5-15mm guy, Marrero probably an 8-10, and Middlebrooks probably a 2-4mm. So you're getting around $15mm in excess value with those 3 players, at the minimum, for $12-14mm in excess value for Zimmermann. So please, explain how this isn't close.

I would trade Cespedes, Margot, and Owens or Rodriguez instantly for Price.

For what its worth, the Red Sox have $42mm committed to 2016. That means, if they want to rub against the LT, they have around $130-140mm to spend in 2016.

No chance on the Braves. Cardinals interesting me but I don't see them giving that contract, they never have for a non-Cardinal (ie an extension). Cubs I am hearing are maybe going to have a cap on their spending for Lester, and really dive into the market next year (Price, Cueto, Shark, Zimmerman lead the pack). As a side note to that, the Sox have a 13mm club option with Buchholz for the 2016 season. Would love to see the Sox use that money along with Vic, Napoli, Mujica, etc to go after one of those big name guys to go w Lester.

Well yeah. I can be a whiny bitch in the game threads when the Sox are sucking, I'll give you that. But I was talking about whining about roster moves.

Yeah - I was thinking, send over Brian Johnson, Devin Marrero (stock skyrocketed from AFL), and Will Middlebrooks for Zimmermann (settle for Fister, if you can't get Zimmermann). Go sign Masterson to 1/7mm and stick him in the 5 slot. Lester Fister Buch Kelly Masterson is a pretty talented group.

How will it be whiny again? How have I ever been whiny on here?

It would sound like you're criticizing the Sox FO for not offering enough. But if you didn't know about the other report, then that's fine. 6/110 would not be an aggressive offer. But 6/110 with some complexity? Absolutely aggressive.

I wouldn't bitch about that and I don't think they'll get Santana. They'll trade for their other pitcher, so it will be a Zimmermann, Cashner, or Samardzija type.

The Sox have plenty of money to acquire both. They've got ~60mm to spend. If they give Lester 23 and Panda 19, that's only 42. And they would still have money to go get another SP (particularly if they go the trade route). The point is, they're going to get 2 SP and a 3B. They have stated that's their priority. I don't know why Fred continues to act like it's a 3B OR a SP.

I'm arguing because you pick 1 reported item (6/110-120) and completely disregard the "The offer was complex" report. With that report, it's obvious that the 6/110-120 isn't telling the whole story at all. So why dog the Sox for it? I'm just not in the business of hounding the Sox until we know the full details.

Keep hearing the Sox haven't yet made an offer to Sandoval but are prepping one. I kind of wonder if they are waiting for Lester to make a decision. Let's say they are wanting to offer Sandoval 6/105. And you just offered Lester 6/110-120. Does that not get out and the Lester camp says 'wait a minute. If you're going to give Panda 6/105, we aren't settling for less than 6/150.' They would be pretty right in their thinking. The gap in talent is pretty large and I can certainly see some leveraging from Lesters camp based on Pandas offer if it got out or he signed before Lester

Link?

You don't know what the offer even is. All that is being reported is that it's 6/110-120. If it has incentives attached that get it up to 6/140, is that aggressive?

Two things. 1. Negotiations don't start with your final offer. 2. WEEI is reporting that the offer is "complex" That means there are probably things like options, opt outs, no trade clauses, bonus structures, etc. What if the offer is 6/114 with a $3mm annual incentive if he throws 200 IP, which would take it up to 6/132? Then another $1mm in incentives if he makes the ASG, which would take it up to 6/138 with the incentives? The problem is that all that is reported is the guaranteed dollars. But if he got the above offer with a no trade clause and a mutual option for a 7th year at $18mm, do you still think that's a bad deal? No, that's an excellent offer, particularly when it is your initial offer.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-design-a-red-sox-cole-hamels-trade/ Excellent article. Very realistic. Concludes that the Sox should be able to get Hamels for Eddy Rodriguez straight up, or Margot straight up, or Devers straight up. Also should be able to get him for a package of 2 of the following 3: Brian Johnson, Garin Cecchini, Matt Barnes. Basically, he's saying "This is how much excess value over dollars spent you're getting from Hamels and thus these prospects are worth this dollar value". Teams put dollar values on players and prospects alike, so it's a very rational way to look at this.

I got both.

So I've got a couple thoughts. 1. The offer to Lester is said to be 'aggressive'. If that is true, he will be back in Boston. Think he signs a day or two before Thanksgiving. I would bet they offered 6/126, his side says '7/150' and they meet at 6/138 or 6/144. Good deal. 2. The Sox are said to be readying an offer for Sandoval. Given that he has a 5/90 (reportedly) offer from the Giants, I think the Sox may go either 5/100 or 6/108. They are also reportedly meeting right now before he flies out this afternoon. My hope is that, for this deal, they give him a 24-48 hour span to accept or counter.

It is very real

All the prospect hating members, stop what you're doing and read this: http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20141118-as-prospects-struggle-across-baseball-players-mentality-matters-more-than-ever.ece

Here we go. Sox hot stove could start very soon. Personally I don't think he leaves Boston without a deal. If he does, he's going back to the Giants.