SoxFanForsyth

+1. Unless the Sox are able to make a deal for Samardzija and Jaso, give Ross a deal and call it good. He is at the very worst an excellent instructor for Vaz.

You know the Sox are committing to Bogaerts, Betts, Vazquez, and Castillo. Plus a SP in the 5 slot and probably 2-3 bullpen slots in the pen. They're not at all afraid to commit to young talent. I agree. If we have to take Howard to get Hamels, no deal. Go get Samardzija or Cueto, and wait for the massive FA SP crop next seasob

Really really good read here by Peter Gammons. Guy is as plugged in as they come. Pretty cool that Bogaerts is out in Arizona with Pedroia. That will pay dividends. Lots of trade talk in this article too http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-cherington-red-sox-faced-with-long-winter-ahead/

There's certainly a good chance that Betts outperforms Cargo over the next 3 years. I am looking at CarGo because the Sox need a LHH power bat pretty bad. CarGo was a near-5 win player as recent as 2013. I'm not 100% sold on him. And to get a couple players like he and Tulo, you have to give up a ton. If we could get Tulo for Bogaerts, Eddie Rodriguez, and Blake Swihart, I pull the trigger on that too and find a LHH elsewhere.

Here's the thing about Sandoval. He can play 1B. I love players with versatility (look at my above post about HanRam). The 2015-2016 FA class for 1B is extremely weak. J eff Baker (35) Kyle Blanks (29) Chris Davis (30) Edwin Encarnacion (33) – $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout Garrett Jones (35) Justin Morneau (35) – $9MM mutual option with a $750K buyout Mike Napoli (34) Sean Rodriguez (31) Gaby Sanchez (32) If the Red Sox don't want to sign a 34 year old Napoli, they really don't have any options. If they have Panda, they can slide him over to 1B and let Cecchini play 3B in 2016. Headley wouldn't allow for that kind of versatility. Yes, Sandoval costs a lot more, but you pay the premium for future flexibility.

Someone like the Tigers or Dodgers will give him 4/40 because they are both about 1 good RP away from being a WS favorite. If miller is that one extra piece you need to make to win a World Series, I can see giving him 4 years and it being justified by a WS win. It's kind of like Victorino. Even if he only plays a few games next season, I make that signing every single time because he played a huge role in the Sox 2013 WS team.

This is silly and you know it. His numbers are manipulated by him trying to be a starter. Since being converted to a full time reliever (2012, 133.1 IP), he's posted a 2.57 era, 2.37 FIP, 2.32 xFIP, a 13.64 k/9 and a 3.65 bb/9. For all relievers since 2012, min 100 ip, Miller ranks 9th in FIP, 4th in xFIP, and3rd in k/9. Is he worth a 4 year deal at 10mm per year? Probably not, but he's s hell of s lot better than KRod and tou tried to manipulate his information to make your point seem better than it is

Would be nice to have him available to slide to SS if Bogaerts gets hurt. If we got HanRam we would be very deep. Bogaerts gets hurt? Hanley to SS, Cecchini to 3b Pedey hurt? Betts to 2B. Nap hurt, Craig to 1B. The infield depth would be phenomenal. That's something we would miss out on w Panda. I love Panda but give me HanRam

Hearing the Sox are down to HanRam and Sandoval, and the decision is purely financial. Translates to Marino_Pepen: WARNING: Hanley Ramirez joins Pablo Sandoval #RedSox possible options to play 3B. The decision is purely financial. #MLB

Which part is unrealistic? Not that I predict that would happen but I do think it's feasible

Here is what the Sox *should* do (in my dream and on my Playstation) 1. Sign Lester for 5/125 (25mm AAV) 2. Sign McCarthy to 3/39 (13mm AAV) 3. Sign Panda or HanRam to 5/90 (18mm AAV) 4. Trade Betts, Bogaerts, Owens, Ed Rodriguez, and Middlebrooks to COL for Tulo and Cargo That's a huge amount of salary to take on this year but it's only 1 year at such a high salary, as Cespedes, Napoli, Victorino, and many more are FA in 2016. The Sox have around 42mm committed in 2016. Panda can move across the diamond and play 1B when Nap leaves and Cecchini can play 3B. If Allen Craig can bounce back, put him in LF when Cespedes leaves. 2015 Lineup: Castillo CF Pedroia 2B Tulo SS Ortiz DH Cespedes LF Sandoval 3B CarGo RF Napoli 1B Vazquez C Rotation Lester McCarthy Buch Kelly Webster/rookie That will never happen, but that would be a crazy good team

Can't extend a player who doesn't want to be there. This is from August. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/08/26/giancarlo-stanton-on-the-marlins-success-five-months-doesnt-change-five-years/

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote an excellent article today saying Cueto + Marshall for Cespedes + Webster + $$$ makes a lot of sense (and I agree). Hoping that goes down. It was pure speculation on his part, but I love the idea. I think Spud may have come up with that idea on here a few weeks ago (at least the Cespedes for Cueto part).

Yup. Same guy who broke Castillo signing has it. Translated to English: Marino_Pepen : SOURCE : Pablo Sandoval could be arriving at an agreement with #RedSox 5 years and $ 100 MM . #RedSoxNation #MLB

Sig bet that the Yankees don't sign lester Scherzer shields hanram or panda?

http://nesn.com/2014/11/report-new-york-yankees-dont-plan-to-pursue-jon-lester-in-free-agency/ I've said this 100 times, yet some people still crap their pants over it. Lester isn't going to the Yankees. It's Cubs or Sox.

Well, if we didn't trade for and pay AGon, we would have also resigned Beltre. He's been pretty ok since signing that deal with the rangers. A 1B/3B combo of Rizzo and Beltre would have been nice.

When Rizzo was 21 and played his first MLB season, he hit .141/.281/.242. People here would have given up on him after that. He hit .103/.333/.103 w RISP. The next season he hit .285/.342/.463, .338/.403/.559 w RISP. Almost like players have to make adjustments once their weaknesses are exposed.

Did Allen Webster suck in the MLB thus far? Absolutely. Do I think Webster takes the #5 slot of the rotation out of spring training? Yup. He showed some improvements in September (2.63 ERA), and though usually that's garbage time pitching, he did face the Royals and Orioles, both of whom had something to play for at the time. I think he showed juuuust enough to keep the Red Sox intrigued with his potential as a starter. My thoughts? Put him in the bullpen. His stuff will play better there. Let's not get confused about this, Allen Webster's stuff is incredible, he just refuses to attack the zone. There are a lot of guys like this who turned into relievers (Dellin Betances and Wade Davis come to mind). I think that's where Webster ends up, as a late inning reliever. And a really good one at that. Same with RDLR and Workman (though Workman's ceiling is probably a 7th inning guy whereas RDLR and Webster's ceilings are more of 8th inning/closer)

Ted, when the Sox traded for Gonzalez, you were pumped that the Sox traded for him and didn't care about the prospects. In fact, you were still dogging the FO because you said that Boggs (AGon's agent) ran circles around the Sox FO and they were going to have to pay an enormous price for him (his FA deal was very reasonable). You just hate the FO regardless of what they do!

Yup. I think we just have two different views on it, which is no problem. I have the opinion that, if we let Bogaerts start out in AAA this year, let him rake there for 3 months, bring him up, he would have probably had a really strong showing because pitchers wouldn't have gotten a chance to get the book on him and make their adjustments. Next year, however, he would be going through the same adjustment period that he went through this year. In terms of him not raking in AAA, I think he did, but he wasn't down there long enough to allow his numbers to catch up to his little adjustment period. He was in AAA for around 60 games. His first 9, he played very poorly. But around his 10th game, he started to really heat up (he hit .307/.388/.476 from his 10th game on in AAA). So I think that's why the Red Sox FO thought that he had done enough down there that he was showing a consistent ability to drive the ball and was ready for the next challenge. To be honest, it certainly looked like he was ready, given his 2013 postseason and his first 55 games in the MLB, when he hit .304/.395/.464 (though those 55 games he posted a .392 BABIP so regression was imminent). More than anything, pitchers exploited Bogaerts' overagressiveness and it just kind of snowballed on him. I think that's actually why the concussion DL stint helped him, kind of hit the reset button for him a little bit. You make so many changes trying to adjust that you get away from what got you to the bigs to begin with.

Adjustments DO translate over a full season. Bogaerts sandwiched his struggles with three excellent months. You can look April, May, and September. Or you can look at June, July, and August. As a Red Sox pessimist, I certainly expect you to look at the middle months.

No, it's just proof that rookies, particularly 21 year old rookies, take a little time to make their adjustments. In their rookie year: Carlos Gonzalez hit .242/.273/.361. Jean Segura hit .258/.315/.325 Aramis Ramirez hit .235/.296/.351 Carl Crawford hit .259/.290/.371 Matt Kemp hit .253/.289/.448 JJ Hardy hit .247/.327/.384 Xander Bogaerts hit .240/.297/.362 Rookies. Often. Struggle. That's all there is to it. They struggle. And just to be clear, while playing SS (i.e. when he was comfortable), Bogaerts hit .266/.333/.391 (102 wRC+). Jeter had a 106 wRC+. Bernie Williams: 94. Andruw Jones: 96 Jose Reyes: 102 Robbie Cano: 105 Miguel Cabrera: 106 Brandon Phillips? 44 wRC+. Brett Lawrie had a 157 wRC+. Kyle Blanks a 137. Logan Morrison? 129. Will Middlebrooks (maybe you've heard of him?) had a 122 wRC+. So lets get off the freaking Bogaerts hate train for a while and see what he does when he's not hooked around between SS and 3B all season. He's made the adjustments. History shows there are endless examples of players who struggled in their first season and went on to be all star players. In fact, there are MORE examples of players who struggled and then went on than there are of players who blasted their first season. Stop making bogus assumptions based on a rookies first season. Period. I'm freaking sick of it.

Nobody is projecting anything. I extrapolated the data not for projection but to put into terms that are more easily understood. If I say "Player X had 4 HR and 17 RBI in 34 games", you have to really think about it to determine if that's really good or just ok, or whatever. So you put it over a full season to say "Ok, that's the kind of production that would extrapolate to 25 HR and 100 RBI, ok that's really good particularly for a SS". It's not projection at all, it's just putting something into more easily understood data. It's like if I told you gas is 0.14 cents per ounce. Is that cheap or expensive? You don't know without looking up or making a calculation to put it into gallons (or in this example, a full season).

First off, Betts is already the leadoff hitter. He was the best player on the team last year when he was up outside of maybe Pedroia. When hitting leadoff, he hit .310/.388/.448. That's an elite hitter, particularly with his speed. Second off, you have to remember that Bogaerts was 21 years old. That's the average age for high A players. He would have still been one of the younger players in DOUBLE A, so he's still got a ton of development time left. The problem is that the development he needed was something he couldn't get in AA or AAA. The development he needed was seeing major league pitchers adjust to him, and then making his adjustments back. He finally figured that out toward the end of the season. What you want to see from a young player is the ability to come out of a struggle. It took Bogaerts a while, but after his concussion, he showed the ability to drive the ball and drive in runners. After his concission, he hit .311/.315/.485 with 4 HR and 16 RBI in 26 games. Over 162 games, that's a 25 HR, 100 RBI season. He made the adjustments needed and his struggles and adjustments should translate to a much better season next year. Like it or not, he's your starting SS for the next 5 seasons at least.