SoxFanForsyth

I save my GT for big games. They will win. Relax. 4 game win streak comin in hot.

E-Rod vs Tanaka. Lets freaking go, man.

Gausman has reverse splits.

yeah, but now that I looked up why this is called the Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread, I want to throw up.

SFF Mojo.

Yanks pen is absolute filth. But, there is a finite amount of high leverage innings in a season, the absolute vast majority taken by your top 2 RP. Adding Chapman and subtracting Wilson is a much smaller upgrade than it would appear. Any regression from either Betances and Miller at all and you're looking at a bullpen that treads water with last year rather than improves upon it. And if they don't regress, it's maybe a 1/2 win upgrade from last year. Keep in mind, the Yanks were 66-3 when leading after 6, 73-2 when leading after 7, and 81-0 when leading after 8. Again. The bullpen is disgusting, but there is only so much value a 3rd RP can actually add, no matter how good he is. The bigger benefit here is depth and maybe keeping Betances from throwing 85-90 innings for a 3rd straight year.

So, I've done a lot of research on Porcello ever since Gammons came out with the comments that Brian Bannister has made alterations to his pitch mix. You can certainly see how his pitch mix changed from April - July vs Aug/Sept. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outco...FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016 Anyway, post DL stint, when he changed his pitch mix, he posted a 3.14/2.96/2.96 ERA/FIP/xFIP. Unfortunately, that only spanned about 57.1 IP, so I wanted to do a little more digging. I grabbed Porcello's pitch mix from Brooks from his career game log and lined it up with his game log from Fangraphs, which allowed me to filter on his results by pitch mix. The results? Pretty encouraging. Filtered on the following (all consistent with post DL usage): 4 SM FB: 12-23% 2 SM FB: 40-60% Curveball: 5-14% Cutter, Change, and Slider all didn't change by any kind of a significant margin. EDIT: To clarify on his Change, once the 4sm, 2sm, and Curveball were all filtered, the remaining results of his change (which did see an increase in usage, but ranged from 7%-25% during those post DL starts) were all consistent with the usage in his post-DL starts (i.e., they were all within the 7-25% usage range), thus no filter needed, if that makes sense Career Results: IP 159.00 K/9 6.96 BB/9 2.04 ERA 3.85 xFIP 3.55 This, however, goes back to when he was called up too early, and natural progression with age, I thought, should make these results even better. 2012-2015: IP 130.00 K/9 6.99 BB/9 2.22 ERA 3.53 xFIP 3.55 xFIP doesn't change much at all, but ERA begins to match xFIP. 2013-2015: IP 105.00 K/9 7.29 BB/9 2.31 ERA 3.34 xFIP 3.54 Again, xFIP stays around the 3.55 range, ERA beginning to improve upon xFIP, likely due to an increase in downward action on his sinker resulting in a lower than average HR/FB. The more encouraging results are below: 2014 - 2015 IP 71.33 K/9 8.20 BB/9 2.02 ERA 3.28 xFIP 3.26 K/9 has increased, xFIP drops down into a well above average rate, and ERA matches. Again, we're limiting the IP here, but if you're going with K rate and BB rate as the main drivers (which they are for xFIP), both stabilize over 170 Batters Faced or less, and that criteria has well been met here. So what do I take away from my research? Well, to project Porcello to morph into a 3.25 ERA pitcher is a little aggressive. That said, he's got a substantial amount of data that indicates that, with Bannister's help in game planning around a specific pitch mix, he can certainly be the 2016 version of 2013 John Lackey and post an ERA/xFIP in the 3.4-3.55 range. And that, I believe, would be plenty good enough to stick behind Price as your number 2.

I actually disagree with this. Given how Porcello pitched at the end of the year last year, how Buch pitched (given you can only expect 120 IP from him), and the emergence of ERod, the Sox will be fine with 1 arm at the front of the rotation. Price - Buchholz - ERod - Porcello - Miley is a completely fine rotation, particularly with Owens and Johnson waiting in the wings. If the Sox do stick Kelly in the pen, along with Koji, Taz, and Kimbrel, they'll have a strong pen, too. Given the progression the youth showed in the 2nd half of the year last year, landing Proce and Kimbrel puts the Sox as the AL East favorites, no doubt.

This is the ideology that I simply don't understand. The market rate for a guy like Price is 7/210mm. 7 years ago, CC got 8/186mm and blew the world away, that's an AAV of 23mm, or slightly more than what Porcello got. So either you pay out the nose for a FA SP, with the expectation that you are getting 4-5 solid years, 1-2 mediocre seasons, but when those mediocre seasons come along, the pitcher is being paid at a mediocre players level with inflation at that point, or you keep finishing in last place, People being upset/worried with the Sox for paying a huge price for Price, after they're raising ticket prices after two last place finishes, and this guy is the key to contending and potentially winning multiple World Series titles? Doesn't make sense If this were the Phillies and Price takes them from a 72 win team to a 77 win team, fine, I get it. But he takes the Sox from a WC2 hopeful to an AL East and WS contender, and the value of that is extremely high

Unfortunately this article was on 11/13, before the Sox trade for Kimbrel came out, and before DD said he's not trading any more prospects.

Cubs ain't ponying up for Price. Already have Lester and Arrieta, two aces, with Arrieta hitting arbitration. If they're spending 200mm, it's gonna be on Heyward in RF, not on another SP.

Good grief. Can we shove it with the armchair psychologists and the anxiety disorder that last reared its head on an unmedicated Zack Grienke some 10 years ago? My goodness, the takes on Grienke being affected by social anxiety and the Boston scary media is beyond obtuse. http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2015/11/17/time-end-the-tired-narrative-that-zack-greinke-wouldn-able-handle-boston/dZsu3NRt3uEoN4udcUI0TK/story.html?s_campaign=bcom:gigya:twitter Read.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah this is kind of silly. Tazawa is a very good reliever that wore down in the second half because of overuse in the first half because we had starters going 3 innings every other night. His K rate and BB rate were still very good, as was his FIP. He's going to be a lights out 7th inning guy, for sure. Not sure how you can not trust him.

Market bears worth. DD and Preller have been talking since the end of the season, there were negotiations going on and I'm sure that this was the most comfortable price that DD could get to. That said, it is a big price, but you pay a premium on making early moves and keeping other teams from coming in and stealing a player away while you wait for the price to drop. I look at it this way: maybe the Sox could have waited and tried to not include Guerra. So they wait, and they get outbid. Now they're left w the farm but a pen that is leaky. Give me the chance to win a WS for the next 3 years and you can have Guerra.

Paid a premium on winning now and striking early to make sure we didn't miss out on getting an elite reliever. Guy got traded the night before OD and had a rough go of it early last season when he was getting used to his new team. You could really see him turn the corner at the end of May. From 5/25 to the end of the season, he posted a 1.44 ERA, 13.19 K/9, and kept getting better as the season progressed. Giving up Margot and Guerra sucked, for sure. But Margot (I've always thought) was overrated and Guerra is a Low-A prospect that you can dream on but carries a ton of risk. I get why DD had to pay both. If this is the deal that is painful, and the Sox land Price via FA and keep all their kids (JBJ, Betts, Swihart, Bogaerts, Espinoza, Devers, Moncada, Benintendi, Owens, Johnson), this team is in a hell of a spot to do some major, major damage this year and in years to come. Simply put, go get Price and you're a contender with a bunch of studs in the farm still, and an absolute lights out closer

I'm gonna go bold here and say Chris Sale. If I'm Hahn, I trade Sale this offseason. The franchise is in need of a reboot, and Sale could make that happen. The Sox line up very well with ChiSox on a deal, so I'll go with Sale.

Can you link this article?

Not at all true. That team won 76 games last year, has 4 lefties in their rotation, has gaping holes at both C and 3B with no end in sight, and their next SS played a half season in AA and that's as high as he got. Let's not act like they're close to contention. They need a lot of help at a lot of positions. Dealing Sale would get them much closer to contention than keeping him, plain and simple.

Not true. The ChiSox would be much closer to contending if they got a package involving, say, Swihart, Devers, Margot, Owens, Shaw (3B), and Marrero. They are extremely shallow at both 3B and C with no help in sight. Getting those positions filled for now (Shaw at 3B, Devers future), as well as getting a potential mid rotation arm, elite CF, and a utility player could easily get the deal done. And that only takes 1 guy from the Sox starting nine.

I think everyone thought that was a moronic trade when it happened, so the fact that the Mets are pummeling the Jays in that trade isn't surprising. If they had gotten someone like Sale, Harvey, or even a guy like Carrasco, the trade would look merely even.

If you're going to get a Harvey type player back, you deal Swihart. But Harvey ain't comin here. The Sox and Mets don't line up well in the least. They'll want an MLB ready player. Our biggest MLB chip that we'd part with (Swihart) is at a position where they already have young strong talent.

I unfortunately agree w all of this.

Carrasco is going to be a Cy candidate next year. Take that to the bank. Price/Grienke are obviously FA and won't cost prospects. Carrasco can likely be had for stud prospects rather than anyone off the 25 man.

Not necessarily. The Sox have the best farm in all of baseball. They can get just about any player they want if they dangle Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, and/or Swihart.