SoxFanForsyth

Well it's also lefty on lefty rather than lefty on righty.

Don't think it sends mixed signals. I think it says they've given up on Middlebrooks, Bogaerts is the casualty, and they still believe they can win. What I don't understand is why we feel the need to displace all of our rookies. Take your 81 wins and go into 2015 with a guy in CF who has a year under his belt and can at least hold his own (or not, but at least we will have a definitive answer and an offseason to make changes) and a guy at SS who is a middle of the order bat who can also pick it at around an average rate. You keep pulling this garbage (displacing Bogaerts w Drew, trading for a new CF, etc) and next year you go into the year with a guy at SS who only played 60 games at SS in 2014 & will have to absorb lumps that could have been absorbed in 2014, and a guy in CF who is still a question mark as to what exactly he is, plus now you’re probably going to go with a rookie at C too. So, great, basically three rookies playing up-the-middle positions. Again. Take your lumps. Take your 81 wins. Take your 2013 WS Championship and use it to leverage a little development time.

I vehemently disagree. If Middlebrooks wasn't consistently injured and playing terribly when healthy, then Drew wouldn't have been signed. The Drew signing had nothing to do with Bogaerts, IMO.

Terrible defensively?? Not even close, at least not by Fangraph standards. His defensive rating, which is position adjusted (something that DRS is not) is at +1.8. Of the 25 qualified SS, Bogaerts ranks 12th in Def Rating, so right in the middle of the pack. Based on total Def Rating for all SS right now (+72.2), the league average SS posts a Def Rating of 2.4, which may be slightly distorted upward due to Tulo and Hardy combining for 16 of the 72 points (basically, 1/5th of the points). Either way, to say that Bogaerts defense has been terrible is silly. Non-positional adjustments have Bogaerts UZR/150 at -0.5, so, basically an average defender.

26-24 through 50 in 2012, aka 5 games ahead of the 2014 counterparts.

Bring me Dexter Fowler.

Well to be fair, I'm realistic about this year but very optimistic about the future.

At 20-28 with now a 9 game losing streak, I'm mailing in this season. Sorry guys, it's a development year which is why signing Drew was a really stupid move to begin with. Please, please get rid of Sizemore. Get rid of Herrera. Hell, call up Mookie. This is absurd. I cannot fathom how this team is going to go from a 97 win team to a sub-.500 team in a year. This year is worse than 2012, at least through 50 games. Way worse Having said that, I'm optimistic because the Sox have an awesome farm, and that's what's going to keep th from running 65 win teams out there in consecutive years. They've got an amazing run coming in the next few years, but absorbing the development lumps is a tough time

SFF mojo to the rescue. The only skid tonight are the skid marks in Archers underwear. Win.

Yeah Bogaerts doesn't have a 123 wRC+ or a .380 OBP, or a .795 OPS as a 21 year old SS. He's definitely not a top 6 offensive SS in the game right now, or wait... And Workman? Didn't close out the 8th inning of the WS. Didn't post 8.2 innings of scoreless baseball in the postseason. JBJ has struggled, but his defense is outstanding and his bat will come around. I think, Fred, unless every prospect comes up and posts a Trout-esque season, you consider them failures and the farm a bust. You have to have patients with them. Pedroia's:

We have very different views on Bogaerts future position, apparently. I also do not think that Stephen Drew is going to turn this team into a WS contender. There are far, far too many holes right now. For this to be a WS contender, we need an OF who can absorb the missing offense in CF, we need a SP to replace Doubront, even if he's healthy, we need Buchholz to figure out what the crap is going on or another SP to replace him. I can see the Sox going with Workman to replace Doubront and not seeing a big step down, but Buchholz was being counted on as giving this team top-of-the-rotation starts. That will need to be an external find. And if none of the above happens, this team is more than likely going to miss the playoffs, with or without Drew. And that's fine because 2014 is not supposed to be a WS year. 2014 is supposed to be a development year that churns out a 5 year period where this team has a really good chance to play deep into October with young, cheap talent complimented by veterans whose contracts, while they may be big, are not suffocating because the base of the team is built on young, cheap talent.

Are you in the Marrero - Bogaerts camp for the left side of the infield?

Not true. See my last post about how long it took them to promote other guys who were virtually in the same boat.

For what it's worth, I would have much rather seen them keep Bogaerts at SS, let him learn that position defensively well this year, win 82-84 games and miss the post season, and then come back next year with non-rookie defense up the middle. Now you're going to be going into 2015 with a rookie starting at C and a guy with about 50 games under his belt at SS at the MLB level, basically the same exact position we were in this year with CF and SS. They folded way, way, way too soon.

I would like to see Middlebrooks dealt for a guy like Ethier (and ~7-8mm/year of his salary). Without the salary relief, a deal straight up could probably be worked out. Adding $21-24mm to sweeten the pot would make the Sox add a mid level guy, and still a deal I would consider. Doesn't have to be Ethier, but I really think they need an outfielder who can hit RHP well. They thought they had it with Nava, but that's not working out. Tried out Sizemore, no go. Now you need to go out and get a guy who can platoon with Gomes because clearly the option isn't in-house.

If Lester doesn't get 7 years, no he won't get $170mm, but he's going to get that kind of AAV, no doubt. That's just the market. Greinke 6/147, Hamels 7/153, Tanaka 7/155 (plus $20mm required bid), Cain 6/127.5 All of these are right at or right around the $23-25mm deal, and they are all Lester-type pitchers. Whether he gets that 7th year, who knows. But all of these deals with the exception of Tanaka, who signed as an unknown, were signed prior to the Kershaw deal, which bumped the market. You're living in a fantasy world if you don't think Lester gets somewhere between 24-26mm annually. The Sox won't give it to him, but someone most certainly will.

Problem is that elite guys are now making Kershaw money (7/215, 30.7mm AAV), and that's now the market. So guys like Scherzer will fall into the 7/190 scale, and guys like Lester will fall into the 7/170 scale. So, like it or not, Lester's market, as set by Kershaw, is now in the 25mm range.

Well he has only had 35 games in AA and 51 games in A+, so even starting him in AA was fairly aggressive. That being said, I can't imagine that he will be there past the ASB, if he even makes it that far. Looking back at some of the studs from the system, I got this info for games in AA: Pedroia (age 21) - 66 G, .324/.409/.508 Ellsbury (ages 22/23) - 71 G, .345/.418/.488 Youkilis (ages 23/24) - 140G, .331/.477/.474 Bogaerts (age 19/20) - 79 G, .315/.392/.531 Betts (age 21) - 35 G, .401/.467/.619 So, even when players are absolutely crushing it/not being challenged, they still leave them there for around 65-70 games. So another 30-35 games for Betts, which would put him up for a promotion to Pawtucket around 7/1.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/ http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17659 Stabilization Points for Offense Statistics: 60 PA: Strikeout rate 120 PA: Walk rate 240 PA: HBP rate 290 PA: Single rate 1610 PA: XBH rate 170 PA: HR rate 910 AB: AVG 460 PA: OBP 320 AB: SLG 160 AB: ISO 80 BIP: GB rate 80 BIP: FB rate 600 BIP: LD rate 50 FBs: HR per FB 820 BIP: BABIP

No chance. Not when they have him by the balls for $500k next season. They can virtually say "Ok, we'll give you $8mm next year rather than the $500k, but you have to take a 10-12mm deal in 2016". Lackey isn't a FA.

I think I told you guys this, but the day after Thanksgiving last year, I saw Lucchino on the side of the road trying to hail a cab, asked him if he needed a ride, and he popped in the car (oddly enough). He told me about the Yanks signing McCann, which had not gotten out yet. I asked him specifically about the Lackey contract. He said "You know, you don't want to piss him off. He's going to say 'Guys, come on. I know I signed that contract but come on, league min??'". He sounded very much like they weren't going to straight up exercise the deal. My honest guess is that they give him kind of an ultimatum - 2 years/16-18mm, or exercise the contract. They'll use it as a negotiation tactic.

I think the Sox live or die with Middlebrooks at 3B, to be honest. This is the year they really find out what they've got in him. The past 2 seasons, he's gotten hurt/split time in PAW/BOS, and hasn't had a full MLB season. They've bought themselves this time to see what they have in him (and JBJ/XB, to a lesser extent, because oddly I think they are more confident in them than in WMB) because they won the WS last year. It's absolutely his make or break year, with Cecchini on his heels & Mookie Betts right behind him, I guess you could feasibly see a switch if WMB is still really struggling to hit in late August, but I don't think they move him off 3B at all this year.

I don't think JBJ or WMB will be dancing around .200 all year, not by any stretch. I think WMB will probably end up around the .240-.260 line. He's excessively streaky, and when he gets hot, he'll hit you 10 homers in a month and boost his average from .200 to .250. He's in a bad cold spell right now but that hit last night may have boosted his confidence a bit. As for JBJ - he's still very much making adjustments, and you have to take the lumps with the good games. Don't think for a second he won't come out of this probably with a line of around .255/.350/.400, which is plenty, given his defense, to get the job done. As for the depth, the outfield is very short on depth, I agree. But, you still have Nava in AAA & certainly you still have the pieces to go fill any need that arises, which really is what separates the Sox from the rest of the East.

Top 20?? If this kid keeps hitting for average, power, getting on base, swiping bags, and playing D like he is, this is a top 10, potentially top 5 prospect. Easily the biggest 5-tool prospect I've seen in this system since Nomar. His 162 game average right now is .401/.467/.601, 28 HR, 112 RBI, 56 2B, 5 3B, 84 (!!!) SB, 204 Runs. These numbers are just absolutely silly. He obviously can't keep this up, but somehow these numbers have gone up since the last time I posted about him.

Hey a700 - Change your sig dude!! Salty isn't even on the Sox!