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SoxFanForsyth

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Everything posted by SoxFanForsyth

  1. I'd rather give the job to Napoli over Gomez myself, but the kid could surprise me, who knows. I just know Napoli rakes at Fenway. Two starters, I agree, top priority. 1 via FA (Haren), 1 via Trade (Lee). Lots of intriguing OF options, Melky Cabrera will be looking for a 1 year pillow deal, Upton is available, Choo is available. I am content with Andrew Bailey. I also think Tazawa can close, if need be. He's got elite control and ridiculous K rates (8.60 K:BB). He's posted a 1.54 even with an unlucky BABIP of .321. Having said that, I'd still be very interested in guys like Brandon League, Jonathan Broxton, and Grant Balfour.
  2. They can certainly compete next season with just a few moves, most notably to the rotation. Going out and giving Dan Haren a 1 year pillow contract and trading for a guy like Cliff Lee or Tim Lincecum gives them a ferocious rotation. Going out and signing Napoli to play 1B, and signing Melky Cabrera to play LF, or trading for a guy like Shin Soo Choo gives them a deep rotation with high OBP players who can also hit for above average power. They don't have to go get a guy like Hamilton. But that hardly means that they're going to be a s*** team next year.
  3. More likely they're going to go for cost controlled players via trade and internal options like Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, Iglesias, De La Rosa, Tazawa, etc.
  4. He played 140 games in 2011, which is the most he's ever played. Not because he's an injury concern, but because he's always had to split time. Annualizing his last 3 seasons, he's a 35 HR hitter with an .870 OPS. So, assume he's going to play 145 when playing exclusively at 1B, and he's a 30-32 HR hitter. That's plenty of production.
  5. Couple things on Napoli. 1. He's hitting .226 this year, but he's still got a .344 OBP and a .446 SLG. He's always been a guy who is able to hit for a low average (career .259) but maintain an OBP of nearly 100 points higher (career .357). Not to mention the fact that he is a pretty pull-heavy hitter, which would play well at Fenway Park. His swing is a lot like Cody Ross's in that aspect. 2. Part of the reason that his average is down this year is because he's spent 70 games behind the plate. When you stick him at 1B rather than C, his legs are saved and he'll be a much better hitter deeper into the season. 3. He's a guy you can get for 4/$48mm, which is a bargain. He actually DOES fit the Red Sox mold of guys who can put up high OBP's and hit for 25+ HR. His career numbers at Fenway are jawdropping (.306/.397/.710, 7 HR in 19 games). Given, it's a small sample size, but certainly he is a guy who can thrive at Fenway Park.
  6. De La Rosa, Webster, Barnes, and Owens all project to be top of the rotation starters.
  7. There's a thin line you have to walk this offseason between going for it in 2013 and keeping your prospects for beyond. For example, lets say Felix comes available. We'd all s*** our pants to have him. But what if the Mariners said "Felix for Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, and De La Rosa". I'd turn it down. This team needs a hell of a lot more than 1 ace to turn it around. And a lot of the guys you'd be trading would be guys you need going forward to build a consistent winner, not a 1 and done.
  8. Location comes with experience, especially his offspeed stuff. Cliff Lee had a 4.14 BB/9 in the minors. De La Rosa is only 24 years old. He's walked 4.00 per 9 in his entire MiLB career. 4.0 career BB/9 as a 22 year old is a pretty far cry from "having proven he cannot locate" Oh and he will be a full year and a half removed from TJS by the time ST rolls around. If he was on the Yankees, you'd be proclaiming him as the next Roger Clemens.
  9. Buch isn't an ace. He's been phenomenal since that bad start to the season (3.19 ERA since his 7th start). I think it's fair to attribute his poor start to his back problems and some rust from not throwing in ages. But, he's not an ace. But if you go into next season with an ace and Buchholz as your #2 starter, you're in good shape from a pitching perspective. And I'm still not sure why so many people are just refusing to include De La Rosa in the pitching plans for next season. Pitching in the #4/5 slot with ace upside, that's a good situation.
  10. Two guys going into FA over the next 2 seasons? Why would the M's do that?? They also need offense, not SP. They would want something that starts with Bradley and Bogaerts.
  11. You're not listening to me. I'm not saying that the Sox don't spend money. I'm saying the Yankees do spend money and that makes a significant contribution to their success. Jackso was virtually arguing against that.
  12. 1B: Napoli 2B: Pedroia 3B Middlebrooks SS: Iglesias C: Lavarnway LF: Cody Ross CF: Melky Cabrera RF: Justin Upton/Shin Soo Choo/Tori Hunter DH: David Ortiz Bench: Ciriaco, Aviles, Sweeney, David Ross SP1 Cliff Lee (Doubront, Morales, and/or Ellsbury involved in trade) SP2 Buchholz SP3 Lester SP4 Rubby De La Rosa SP5 Lackey RP1: Broxton/League RP2: Bailey RP3: Tazawa RP4: Alex Wilson RP5: Atchison RP6 Miller RP7 Breslow
  13. No chance the Sox pay Swisher that much money. That's retarded. They'll go to maybe 3/39 or 4/52 on him but that's as far as I see them reaching, especially with guys available like Justin Upton (trade), Josh Hamilton, Tori Hunter, Shin Soo Choo (trade), and Melky Cabrera. Plus internal options like Kalish and Bradley Jr (mid season). No chance they overextend themselves on an average player. Almost less than zero. They will resign Ross to about 3/21 and get virtually the same production and then get a bat like J Up for LF, or sign Hamilton for 4/100. I'd much rather see them give Hamilton 4/100 than Swisher 5/75-90.
  14. I'm not saying the Sox don't spend boatloads of money. But Jackso was insinuating that the Yankees winning had nothing to do with the money they spend, when in all reality, they wouldn't be where they are right now without spending the money that they spend.
  15. Don't think so, the acquiring team gives up their 1st round pick, but the team who the FA leaves does not receive that pick, it just condenses the first round. So since the top 10 picks are protected, the Sox wouldn't lose a draft pick by signing a big name FA.
  16. The fact remains, though, that the Yankees are able to retain their homegrown players, which is what separates the Yankees from most other teams who can't lock up their home grown players to long term, big money deals (i.e. Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte historically, etc), and then still go out and sign big money complimentary pieces (i.e. Sabathia, Soriano, ARod, Teixeira).
  17. As much as I hate losing to the Rays, the more we lose, the higher our pick next year. Not only that, but we are also in line to have around the 7th or 8th pick, aka a top 10 pick, aka a protected pick. So we can go out and sign a big name FA like Napoli, or even if we want to give Josh Hamilton 4 years, $100mm for example, we don't have to give up a draft pick.
  18. Damn. Had tickets to tonight's game but couldn't go. That sucks.
  19. Kuroda doesn't have the stuff to lead a staff. he's a very good complimentary piece. He's not a leader. Not an ace. The Red Sox need an ace. Kuroda wouldn't be slotted above Lester or Buchholz going into next season.
  20. Having said all of that, I cannot fathom that people don't think this team needs an ace on the staff after watching this year unfold. A Kuroda or a Lohse (who has a 4.44 career ERA and is 34 this year) isn't going to get this team where they need to be. Not even close. If we go into 2013 with the same rotation as right now + Kuroda/Lohse, this will be another 84-86 win team.
  21. Webster is going to start 2013 in AA most likely, with a mid season call up to AAA and potential for the rotation in 2014. De La Rosa will either be a late inning reliever or a starter in 2013, but will be with the rotation. Barnes will likely start 2013 in AA, and potentially could be in AAA by the end of the season, depending on how he performs in Portland. He's a guy who will likely be up to Boston in mid-2014. That's 3 middle to top of the rotation starters right there who should be in the rotation within the next 1.5 seasons. I can't remember the last time the Red Sox had pitching prospects like this. Maybe when they had Lester and Buch, but they never had that 3rd piece like they have now. And that's not even discussing Owens, who many believe is the top SP in the Sox rotation. In terms of trading for Lee, I don't think they'd have to give up Doubront + a B, because the Sox will be absorbing about 95% of the salary. I would be shocked if Doubront was with the Red Sox in 2013, though. The more I think about it, I also think the Sox will go into 2013 by acquiring an ace such as Lee or Lincecum, and going Lee/Lincecum - Buchholz - Lester - De La Rosa - Lackey. I know a lot of people want to go get 2 pitchers, but when you've got an ace in the making in De La Rosa, you've got to give him a chance to show what he can do. He'll be 24 next season, that's time to get him in the game. You don't wait for a guy with that quality of an arm to be 25 before you call him up.
  22. Agree. I would be ok going into next season with Buch as the #2 starter, Lester as the #4 starter, and Lackey as the #5 starter, with Doubront being dealt in a deal for an ace. The fact that Buch is that has come around extremely well (after those 5 starts where he apparently had to shake off some rust), and he's thrown 150 IP over 21 starts (over 7 IP per start) to a 3.08 ERA starting with his 6th start of the year. He's dropped his ERA down to a 4.16, which, considering where it was on early May, that's absolutely incredible. He can certainly be counted on as a #2 in the rotation. That means you go out and get Cliff Lee (2.40 ERA in his last 110 IP) and slot him in the ace slot. You trade Doubront and you take on $24mm of his $25mm each year. Then you go out and you sign a very solid #3 that you can count on, like Dan Haren or Edwin Jackson. That's how you fix this team. It starts with the rotation, and you go out and get high OBP guys like Shin Soo Choo for RF and Nick Swisher for 1B.
  23. This could be very good news: Finally, maybe we won't wait until our prospects are 24 and 25 years old before they get called up. Obviously, we can't go into 2013 expecting anything from any of those prospects, but it certainly allows the Sox to allocate money on resources other than OF depth, etc because now they have Brentz and Bradley both who can be called up.
  24. Cabrera. The guy who was on roids but hit .345 this year
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