SoxFanForsyth

Even if the Sox didn't make a single SP acquisition this offseason (which is quite literally impossible), the rotation would still be without Cook going into next season. You'd have Buch - Lester - Lackey - Doubront - De La Rosa. Personally, I think they shop Doubront, potentially shipping him to Philly in a deal for Cliff Lee. I don't see Doubront with the Sox next season. Josh Johnson has really settled down nicely lately (2.88 ERA in his last 10 starts). He's also a guy who I could see the Sox dealing for. If the Marlins liked Crawford so much, I wonder what they'd think about dealing Josh Johnson for Ellsbury straight up, considering both are in the final year of their deals. Adding Cliff Lee and Josh Johnson to the rotation certainly makes them a contender next year, along with a pick up of Melky on a 1 year pillow deal and another move for a power hitting OF (maybe even give Hamilton a high AAV for only 4 years, like 4/100).

Right - I was asking more conceptually than actual players. A player like Garza (or Buehrle, or anyone who would slot as a #3/4, but a very solid #3/4). I 100% agree that the #5 slot has GOT to be a battle between Doubront/Morales/Lackey/De La Rosa. Any less than that and you're not deep enough at the top. Having said that, I think Doubront will be major trade bait this offseason. He's shown flashes of very good stuff, just needs another year or so to put it all together, but he's a LHP who can pump 95-96 with an above average change, which are pretty rare. Also, going on the Ellsbury talk, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if a guy like Melky Cabrera gets a pillow contract to show he can play post-steroids. Nobody is going to give him big money long term if they don't know what they're getting out of him. He'd be a near-perfect fill in this year while Bradley Jr develops in AAA, and is ready for the 2014 roster. Grady Sizemore, although oft injured, would be an intriguing player to consider as well. Also will be going on a 1 year deal. Shin Soo Choo would be a very good fit in Boston, getting back to their high OBP roots. He's a 15-20 HR guy who will give you a .375+ OBP and 18-22 SB with elite defense. He's going into the last year of arbitration, and the Guardians likely won't sign him long term according to reports, so they'll listen on him this offseason.

The Sox could very well go into 2013 with a back end of the bullpen of Bailey, De La Rosa (if they don't have him start out of the gate, he probably sits 98-100 out of the pen), Tazawa, Bard, Miller, Breslow, and Alex Wilson. And that's not even counting guys like Rich Hill, Chris Carpenter (who sits upper 90's), or Scott Atchison. They could have a very talented bullpen next year just on the players they have right now alone.

Are you ok giving Buchholz the #2 slot? I'm wondering if you would want the Sox to go out and sign a guy like Dan Haren to take over as the "Ace" role, and then have them trade for a Matt Garza who would battle Lester for the #3 slot. Haren - Buchholz - Garza - Lester - De La Rosa/Lackey.

Why would the Rangers do that? They have Andrus locked up until 2014 on a very team friendly deal (3/$14mm). I know they have Profar, but that doesn't mean they'll just dump Andrus.

The problem is that you don't want to commit to 7 years when you can commit to 4 years. On top of that, you can likely get the Phils to pay around 3-5mm/year for Lee to get the right package back. The whole discipline increase is almost exactly referring to not giving Grienke a 7 year deal. A guy who has question marks, you don't want to lock up for long term. If you get Lee, you get him for 3 years with an option. It's not something that's going to crush your team long term if it doesn't quite work as planned.

And for all of those people who didn't want to trade for Lee because they think he's having a down year - He's got a 3.36 ERA right now, both his K/9 and K:BB are very strong (6.57 K:BB is ridiculous), and he's got a 2.26 ERA over his last 9 starts. He is exactly what the Red Sox need in terms of getting their pitching back in order.

Can we count on Lester to be our ace? No. But does that mean he's on this perpetual spiral downward? Not at all. His velocity has decreased 0.2 mph this year. That's negligible, so that argument holds no water to me. His K's have certainly dropped, but his BB's have dropped significantly as well. In fact, his K:BB ratio is at 2.49, which is higher than his career average (2.47). He's had only 2 seasons in his career in which his K:BB ratio was higher than it is this year. Look, he's having a terrible year. He's not stranding the runners that get on, but he is walking fewer. His 4 seamer averaged 93.69 last year vs 93.62 this year, so it's not like he's lost arm strength like some would like you to believe. He's not an ace. Certainly not. And Buchholz is a better pitcher than Lester. This team needs two top of the rotation pitchers (like Cliff Lee and Dan Haren, which I'll push until the end of the offseason). But if they only get 1 of those, and Buchholz becomes the #2 and Lester becomes your #3, that would still be a very, very strong top 3, and to be honest, I would put Lester up against any #3 in the AL. The only #3 in the MLB I wouldn't put him up against is on the Phillies.

Allen Webster was the #61 prospect on Keith Law's top 100 coming into this season (to put it into perspective, Xander Bogaerts was #62). He was #80 on Fangraphs top 100, and #95 on Baseball America's top 100. The question is this. Do you think Matt Barnes is a good pitching prospect? Because if you do, both Webster and De La Rosa are ranked above him in the Sox organization according to Keith Law. That's a big statement. Matt Barnes was ranked as the #13 prospect in the MLB on Baseball America's midseason top 50. Again, just for perspective. This is where these players are ranking. De La Rosa threw 60.2 IP to a 3.71 ERA as a 22 year old in 2011 for the Dodgers before his elbow gave out. He From 07-2011, he has the 2nd highest average velocity of any pitcher (min 50 IP) at 96.54 MPH (behind Cashner at 97.27). If you don't want a 24 year old who throws upper 90's as a starter in our rotation, then I have no idea what you DO want.

I just cannot fathom why it would be a bad thing for De La Rosa to start in the rotation? The kid has electric stuff. I'm not saying he's going to be a sub-3 ERA pitcher. But to expect him to be a 3.8-4.0 ERA pitcher with a solid K/9 next year? That's not at all out of the question. I'm fine with him being a #5. Hell, he would be an elite #5. I will agree with you all in this - The Sox have to go out and get MULTIPLE starting pitchers. Multiple. And front-rotation guys, too. Buchholz and Lester need to be, at best, our #2 and #3 pitchers. But if we want to win, they will be our #3 and #4 pitchers, following guys like Cliff Lee and Dan Haren. Lee - Haren - Buchholz - Lester - De La Rosa would be a disgusting rotation. I know, Lackey has to pitch. But if we're going to try to build and win at the same time, De La Rosa should be in the rotation. The kid is ready now. I think he's going to surprise a lot of people.

I've heard a ton of baseball people say that De La Rosa is a future star. From Keith Law: "Rubby (De La Rosa) isn't rookie-eligible any more, but I'd rank him first, Webster second, Barnes third." De La Rosa had just made his first appearance in 2012 right before the deal. He is coming off of TJS, which often times makes pitchers throw even harder (See: Tazawa). He's certainly MLB ready. Heard Kevin Kennedy on XM say the Sox will have De La Rosa in the rotation next year, and he's not a #4 or #5. He's a front of the rotation pitcher as is. And he's 23 right now. De La Rosa will almost certainly be in the rotation next year. He'll be 24 going into ST next year. What the hell are we waiting on?? He had around 10 starts in 2011, tore his UCL, got the surgery, and is ready to come back. If you want to limit his innings, fine. But to say he's not big league ready? That's just not doing your homework. Here's Law's take on De La Rosa via the WEEI Minor Details. http://audio.weei.com/a/62024117/minor-details-ep-35-keith-law-on-red-sox-prospect-haul-in-dodgers-blockbuster.htm Here's what he said: "De La Rosa no longer exists on my prospect listing because he's got too much big league time. That's not a reflection of him no longer being a (top) prospect, it's just that once he's off his rookie eligibility, we take him off the list. If he were still a prospect, I'd have him at the top (of the prospects received in trade) followed by Webster who I think become the top pitching prospects in the organization. De La Rosa has a chance to be a front of the rotation starter. He has a huge fastball. He will pitch (not top out) at 95-98, he'll touch 100 as a starter, he's got a good change up." He goes on to talk about the arm slot issues I discussed earlier, including "if his slider is just an average pitch, he's going to be a hell of a big league pitcher. I'm not worried about that, it's an easy fix." Oh - And the last quote, which you'll find in Law's chat at the 4:55 mark - "De La Rosa is ready now. I mean, once he's stretched out. He pitched a few innings of relief for the Dodgers before being sent down as the PTBNL". I don't know if you guys think I just spew ******** out of my ass for some reason, because I don't. The majority of the things I say is based entirely on a professionals opinion or assessment.

So, that kid who Keith Law said is the Red Sox top pitching prospect, you know, the one who still blazes 97-100 in the 6th inning ? His name is Rubby De La Rosa. He'll be in the rotation next year, likely in the 4 slot. Keith Law, who is not at all generous in his assessment of prospects, said that if De La Rosa can just alter the arm slot of his slider to come out at the same slot as his fastball, he's going to be an ace. I'm so happy the Red Sox finally have a farm system stocked with some high level pitchers (Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, Britton, Owens), and some really good bats (Bogaerts, Bradley, Brentz, Middlebrooks who just obviously graduated). But, they need to make quite a few moves this offseason. Signing a guy like Napoli to a 3-4 year deal at $13mm would be a good start. Make a couple trades. Trade 1 is for Justin Upton. Trade 2 is for Cliff Lee. Doubront is available for trade. Go into the season with a rotation of Lee - Lester - Buchholz - De La Rosa - Lackey. That's a very solid rotation, and could certainly, with the right manager (I'm looking at you, Farrell), be right in the middle of the division race next September.

I have a feeling Lavarnway is about to break out.

Couple things: 1. Rubby De La Rosa will almost certainly be in the rotation. Kevin Kennedy was on his show on XM (Power Alley) and was saying that De La Rosa would be in the Sox rotation next year, and not as a 4 or 5. At the top of the rotation. On top of that, Keith Law said that if De La Rosa can throw his slider from the same arm slot as his FB (which just takes a little coaching, not a huge transformation), he's at least a #2, but could easily be a #1. He's very high on both Webster and De La Rosa, and actually said today in his chat that he would rank the Sox pitching prospects as 1. De La Rosa, 2 Webster, 3. Barnes. It's amazing to me that the Sox picked up 2 pitchers better than Barnes in that huge salary dump. 2. I think the Red Sox make a trade for Kendrys Morales this offseason. He's in the last year of arbitration in 2013, so he'd come pretty cheap. He sprays the ball all over, and likely wouldn't cost a whole lot considering the year he's having, his injury history, and the fact that the Angels have Trumbo and Pujols at 1B. He could almost certainly be had for a package around Brandon Jacobs. 3. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox gave Dan Haren a 1 year, $15mm deal as a pillow contract. That seems exactly like the kind of deal they'll be looking for. 4. They'll almost certainly lock up Cody Ross to a 3 year/21mm deal (Willingham deal is almost a perfect comp). But I think he'll play RF. He's not a great LF with that monster. He's never played big walls very well. 5. I think they'll make a trade for Upton, as well. Kalish + Bradley would likely get it done, potentially with a Pimental as the 3rd piece. I think the Sox would also consider locking up Ellsbury, since they know he can handle it here. So that makes Bradley expendable. So now you're looking at a lineup of: Ellsbury CF Pedroia 2B Upton LF Ortiz DH Morales 1B Middlebrooks 3B Ross RF Lavarnway C Iglesias SS And a rotation of: Lester Haren Buchholz De La Rosa Lackey That would certainly be a team that is ready to compete, and would keep the Sox from having to give up Bogaerts, Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, etc. And as a side note, I know you said that Upton would cost one of the killer B's, but there's a pretty large disparity of talent between Bogaerts and the other 2, I think. I don't think they'll give up Bogaerts (or have to) for anyone other than Felix or Mike Stanton.

Been studying for the CPA exam, so I haven't been around much lately. But here are some interesting options. 1. Kendrys Morales. Could be exactly what the Sox are looking for. A guy who may be a little overlooked (See: Trumbo, Pujols), but has tremendous upside. He actually sprays the ball all over the field, not just a pull hitter. He's a guy who may be a bit underappreciated by the Angels right now, and the Sox could bite on that and get a 30+ HR first baseman. 2. Mauro Gomez - I was initially down on him, but maybe he's proving me wrong. He's hitting the ball very well, but has a .410 BABIP. That's extremely high, and will obviously regress. Still, he crushed in AAA too, so he deserves a chance. Nelson Cruz was 27 before he got his first full time gig, and he is a pretty damn good player too. That may be what we have here. 3. Two players the Red Sox have to check in on, no matter how ridiculous it sounds, is Mark Trumbo and Mike Stanton. Period. Don't miss out on a deal just because you assumed they were unavailable.

Check in on Trumbo immediately. Get that bat for 1B. Seriously.

The Sox should go make an offer to the Angels for Trumbo to play 1B. They'll likely have to include some front line prospects, but they likely have the prospects to do it. They can also deal Ellsbury in the deal, because Trumbo is currently playing LF, if they need to. Not sure he'd be available, but I'm not sure how much the Angels like having him in LF because of his defense. It's at least worth checking into. That's the kind of player the Sox need to pursue, and now that Pujols is there, they may listen on Trumbo.

No chance the Yankees sign him when they have to have a Jeter - ARod rotation at DH. Ortiz won't take a contract where he'll only play 100 games, and Jeter and ARod will go nuts if they have to sit.

Want to hear something sad?? The PawSox, you know, the team without Lavarnway, Lars, Gomez, Middlebrooks, or Kalish, just beat Jair Jurrjens 3-1. You know, the Jair Jurrjens that shut down the Sox earlier this season? Oye.

On Ortiz - I give him 2/22mm, but that's where I draw the line. If he wants a multi year deal, he's got to understand that one of the years he's going to be 39, and he's had an achilles problem in each of the last 2 years, one of which looks likes its going to sideline him for the better part of the entire 2nd half.

Outside of Lincecum and to a lesser extent, Haren none of those are aces. Not to mention that both Haren and Lincecum are having years with significantly decreased velocities. Certainly, throwing a Marcum, Sanchez, Peavy, Santana, or Floyd at our rotation is not going to get close to fixing it.

And FWIW, Pal - I bet if the Sox offered a deal that includes Doubront - Cecchini - Pimentel, and took on $22mm annually, the Phillies would bite at that quickly.

Lee is a trade. And I understand that everyone is a bit gunshy after being burned by the FA signings we've had, but my God, this team did not just turn into a small market, 65 million dollar payroll team. They've cleared the payroll, but that doesn't mean that they shouldn't take any more risks on long term, high dollar deals. Their payroll is still going to be at least in the 150's to 170's next year, I can guarantee you that. I'm looking forward to this offseason tremendously.

Yeah I heard him talking about Hamilton. I'm not sure about this deal. I wouldn't be opposed to it if it was like a 5 year/100mm deal because he'd be out by the time he was 36. But I wouldn't go farther than that. That said, he would be a guy that would be a hell of a lot of fun to watch out in LF everyday. Funny, isn't it, that the one guy you'd want to be around in the clubhouse to keep Hamilton's head on straight would be Adrian Gonzalez. And the one guy you'd want to keep out of the clubhouse would be Josh Beckett.

I would argue that he is easily a $50mm improvement over Doubront. Cliff Lee is one of the elite pitchers of this era. His velocity is consistent with what it has been, actually a tick up. He is still striking out close to 9 per 9 innings and walking 1.4 per 9. That's incredible. He has been a bit more HR prone this year, but that's not due to his stuff. He has shown a massive improvement in the 2nd half. He's got a 3.22 ERA in the 2nd half, and 75 K's to 16 BB's. He's got a 6.24 K/BB ratio. His stuff is absolutely, 100% not diminishing. The question remains - Do you want an ace, or do you want to keep running the rotation we had this year out there? Because the reality is that Lee would be off the books after the 2015 season. Which is likely the same time that any internally developed ace would be able to take over. Plain and simple, this team needs starting pitching. Bad. Really bad. What we've got in terms of SP hasn't worked for the past 3 seasons. Hell, it hasn't worked for the past 4 seasons if you're looking for the last time we won a PS game. Don't you think it's time we tried to get a proven arm, even if it is a guy who is 34?? It's a short, 3 year deal. If you're ever going to take a gamble on a player like this, its when it won't affect you long term.